Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Dona Ferentes]

ring that bell
...
The relentless rally over the past three months has pushed the gold price almost 20 per cent higher this year, its best quarter since 1986. It was only 18 months ago that the commodity was trading at below $US2000 an ounce, and fund managers see a decade-long gold rush that is not yet reflected in the share prices of Australian miners and explorers.

“I don’t think the general market has cottoned on to this, but we’re hopeful this is just the start of a genuine gold bull run that we haven’t seen for nearly 15 years,” said Collins St Asset Management’s Michael Goldberg. “The past couple of gold bull markets lasted about 10 years and I reckon we’re only three to four years into this one.”

Collins St is among a growing number of money managers reopening or launching gold funds to capitalise on the strong demand from investors. The firm launched its gold fund in April 2023 and has reopened it this year following solid demand from clients who want to access the portfolio’s 77 per cent increase over the 12 months to February 28.

L1 Capital, a firm that specialises in investing for super funds and family offices, has also launched a dedicated gold strategy as it seeks to capitalise on the same disconnect between the commodity’s price and the valuation of miners and explorers in the sector.

 

[Sdajii]

Well, when you put it that way ..

"Gold is only 12 months removed from breaking out of a 13-year base. This is critical to keep in mind."
The Daily Gold - thedailygold.com

QUARTERLY Ultra long term
View attachment 196685

When you consider how gold is valued and coveted, the state of the economy, rate of inflation, and you look at that chart, $5,000 doesn't seem at all unlikely.

Then if you notice that's a log scale not an arithmetic scale, $5,000 seems unrealistic and using the log scale almost seems to have been deceptive, and was certainly used deliberately to make it seem gold's recent rally was less extreme than it really was.

Hard to say what will actually happen, I expect the run to continue well above $3,100 but how far it can go is uncertain.

Log scales over that sort of time period need to be interpreted carefully. They make recent increases look tiny and very old increases look proportionately huge.

 

[finicky]

So I think the point he is making is the likely duration of a climbing price and also how the chosen RSI momentum indicator can remain at overbought. Also, it's arguable which is the more realistic measure of gain - arithmetic or proportional. A $A500 gain in 2009 from X dollars and a gain of A$500 in 2025 from 3X dollars have not the same significance? Please don't answer - I hate debate.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'd agree re log and non log graphs. Any old bastard with a caravan and a dump in Doncaster is a millionaire now.

The level of TA knowledge has fallen on ASF since people like @tech/a are posting less. In fact on all forums here and in the US that knowledge has fallen. Perhaps it is due to the amount of TA now undertaken by brokers and funds and other vermin.

Nonetheless, I anticipate a large retracement as I said in a post above somewhere, certainly to $2800 and possibly $2600. So I'm definitely not buying. I'll just hold as it is a good commodity to hold when nutters like Trump can be just a few years from making themselves an Emperor. I wonder who the second one will be Donald Jnr. or Eric. Where is Caesar when he is needed. See, the world is crazy.

Anyways, gold is good. I may sell a bit should it go ballistic to $5000 or $15000 US. Otherwise I'll hold.

gg

 

[Sdajii]

So I think the point he is making is the likely duration of a climbing price and also how the chosen RSI momentum indicator can remain at overbought. Also, it's arguable which is the more realistic measure of gain - arithmetic or proportional. A $A500 gain in 2009 from X dollars and a gain of A$500 in 2025 from 3X dollars have not the same significance? Please don't answer - I hate debate.

You don't really have the right to make a statement and request no response in any sort of normal discussion.

The chart with the log scale would suggest to a fairly regular person that far more than a $500 addition to the current rally is more than expected, in fact, the log chart makes you expect something more like a rapid addition of a further $2,000 in the very near future can be expected.

Log scales are definitely useful in some ways, but only if you understand how to use and interpret them, which the vast majority of people do not. Arithmetic scales are intuitive and the only way the vast majority of people know how to understand numbers.

If you hate debate, you can either not say anything anyone may disagree with, or deal with something you hate.

 

[Sdajii]

I'd agree re log and non log graphs. Any old bastard with a caravan and a dump in Doncaster is a millionaire now.

The level of TA knowledge has fallen on ASF since people like @tech/a are posting less. In fact on all forums here and in the US that knowledge has fallen. Perhaps it is due to the amount of TA now undertaken by brokers and funds and other vermin.

Nonetheless, I anticipate a large retracement as I said in a post above somewhere, certainly to $2800 and possibly $2600. So I'm definitely not buying. I'll just hold as it is a good commodity to hold when nutters like Trump can be just a few years from making themselves an Emperor. I wonder who the second one will be Donald Jnr. or Eric. Where is Caesar when he is needed. See, the world is crazy.

Anyways, gold is good. I may sell a bit should it go ballistic to $5000 or $15000 US. Otherwise I'll hold.

gg

I think calling a fall in gold below the current price is questionable. Sure, it might happen, but to claim it will "certainly" pull back to $2,800 is more than extreme (technically illegal too, not that I am remotely suggesting I agree with the law or that you've done anything especially 'wrong' beyond making a claim I disagree with). Heck, our friend who posted above you is calling for the rally to run another $500 before breaking a sweat.

If I had to guess I'd say we won't ever be going back below $3k, but I am far from certain. It's difficult to be sure, we have a lot of unknowns and forces pulling in different directions. $2,600 is certainly possible. Hey, $1,500 is 'possible', I suppose. For now it's in an extreme rally and hasn't shown any sign of pulling back. Of course whether it begins tomorrow and pulls back to $2,600 as you suggest is possible, or if it runs straight to $3,700 and pulls back to $3,300, we will see a pullback at some stage, but when a rally is still running strong and hasn't yet shown any sign of weakness, statistically, the trend is probably your friend.

I agree that gold is good. If it gets close to $4,000 in a hurry I'll probably be taking profit, largely on the same numerology which made me expect a rally once $3,000 was broken (all those superstitious idiots may be idiots, but there are plenty of them and $4,000 will be something they want to avoid).

Seems weird that you say we'll certainly see a pullback to $2,800 but you're holding at $3,130 and not planning to take profit unless it goes ballistic, but with your uncanny ability to strategically pick trading halt timings I won't argue with your methods.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Reasonable points @Sdajii . My take is a retracement sure, then a continuation of a bull run. The retracement is to allow the noble stock pickers , washed and unwashed, to add on to a metal which has defied all expectations so far. I must do the fibonacci's on the price and will, as soon as the bugger pauses it's upwards run.

gg

 

[rcw1]

Good morning gold believers
Oil price retreated after Trump announced tariffs on major trading partners, including China and the European Union,

Gold extended gains after the tariff announcement. Expecting more heavy lifting in the PoG department.

Gold is good.

Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Indeed @rcw1 . Gold is good. There were some swings after the Bald Fool made his announcements , low $3106, high $3158 within a few minutes after the idiot read from the board on who got hammered and who didn't. We just got a 10% hit. So the algos would have made a cool $50 an ounce within 2 minutes, but its steady as she goes now. For the moment !!

gg

 

[tech/a]

The level of TA knowledge has fallen on ASF since people like @tech/a are posting less. In fact on all forums here and in the US that knowledge has fallen. Perhaps it is due to the amount of TA now undertaken by brokers and funds and other vermin.

Hi GG et al

For me, it's about time and inclination. There has been some interest in T/A, but people often feel it's a magic bullet until they realize it isn't, often due to poor implementation. With markets bouncing all over the place with little trend, finding a commodity or instrument that behaves itself for a long or short position is difficult.

Gold is trending, and from a T/A view it's more about getting in efficiently and getting out efficiently than is this a potential buy or at sometime a short!.

The hardest thing to do in my view is to select a possible buy or sell and getting in and staying in. this can be Minutes to Months.
All possibilities with T/A.

 

[DaveTrade]

I hate debate.

If you hate debate, you can either not say anything anyone may disagree with, or deal with something you hate.

I hate debate as well and there is nothing wrong with putting forward an opinion and letting others debate about it.

 

[finicky]

I said please.
Strange how so many intellectual types have no intuition that someone is trying on a bit of irony. You really think I was shutting him up. Like I could anyway. Debate what you want. Be tedious.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

London has just under 4 hours before it opens. It will be the first chance that they have to react to the Bald Orange Lunatic's "Liberation Day". If it moves up smartly as NY Globex, Sydney and Asia have, the run past $3250 is done and dusted. A reverse may bring us back to $3100. I doubt very much if it will go sideways. Too much volatility.

You know if I was writing a book about all this I'd have Trump cark it around about 6pm our time, i.e in 4 hours time. I guess if he does it's off to Guantanamo for me.



gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

apology mista, as I said before I am not a chartist just "a nobody"

Hi. @bettamania I thought of you when I saw this setup on a gold chart from kitco.com. Just to help you with your progress in understanding technical analysis. This called a descending triangle one of the more predictive setups in TA.



So the target price is the distance down from the y axis of the descending triangle. I haven’t looked to see if it worked as I frigged about on a new iPad using a program called procreate which draws nice lines on images. So the target price is 3141 - 26 =3,115.

Look it up. It keeps me off the streets.

gg

 

[ducati916]

No mainstream economists, banks or financial media companies seem to want to dig into this macro question:

Who is importing so much gold that the impact is felt in a $27 Trillion economy.




And why would that be?


jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

No mainstream economists, banks or financial media companies seem to want to dig into this macro question:

Who is importing so much gold that the impact is felt in a $27 Trillion economy.

View attachment 196744
View attachment 196745

And why would that be?


jog on
duc

selling or buying?
Are the US selling gold now? Or buying to fill missing gaps in Fort Knox and spreadsheets?

 

[divs4ever]

selling or buying?
Are the US selling gold now? Or buying to fill missing gaps in Fort Knox and spreadsheets?

maybe they are trying to fill the order so the Germans can repatriate to gold they stored in US vaults

after the similar event in UK ( as Germany brought their gold home ) it will be interesting to watch how long it takes the US to return the gold )

there is some chance now that some trading nations will no longer take payment in US dollars ( but maybe would accept gold or silver )

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So what's happening is that futures traders are highly leveraged and are losing their pants. So much so that they are raidng their gold stores so that they don't get called. This normally happens in a crash. Everybody panics. After they sell their gold, they sell their houses, and the price of houses comes down.

Gold is not a dog. It is the asset of last resort. The NASDAQ , S/P and Dow are going to fall greatly tonight. I had some US shares I sold in their overnight session, our afternoon, mostly even, some losses, and they are still falling. Looking at X.com which usually has people of moderate temperament ( I jest) is like looking at the last days of Rome in the stock threads. If there is one thing the Americans do well apart from importing brainy people it is panic. They are panicking atm. The panic will lead on to further selling.

The good thing about holding gold in $AUD is that as the $USD falls against us, the fall in gold is not as disastrous. As I predicted in earlier posts the POG will fall to $USD 2800 or even $USD 2500, that may be tonight or it may be next week. Who knows. When I made that prediction I felt it might happen over months but I hadn't reckoned on the Clown Emperor actually stuffing up international trade so comprehensively in one afternoon.

So it will get worse and gold will get sold off somewhat so that the dumb mothers who appear on TV shows and Youtubes telling you how smart they are at managing money do not end up working in McDonalds next week.

So just hang on as it is going to get interesting. Complicating matters is that the $USD is losing value fast against all currencies including the $AUD so that much of the fall in gold when we buy it is influenced by the fall in the $USD. So we won't be affected as gold holders in Australia as the poor bastards in the USA. Things are moving so fast, gold has dropped another $USD 21 I've had to change the attached charts, then I'll post this.



gg