Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

I mentioned these closing prices of the 11 th September as being resistance for the Gold Indicies
16.24 155.47 366.98

Today they are roughly
16.00 158.35 361.41

Almost one week ago and Gold has been above US700 all that time.
Gold's move up everyone is sure this is it.
I mentioned a 'false hope'

Currently the Indicies are not confirming POG

"I was looking for something (a pattern) in US markets today did not happen
But spotted something else that did"

I dont think the indices are having an effect anymore. The key is the faith being lost in paper currencies particularly the $US. There is no doubt that huge drops on Wall street will support the dollar as people fly to cash, and yes gold stocks go with it. (though the way the HUI is looking perhaps not) But the pig picture is that the overall gold trend will remain intact till an alternative to the $US dollar is found.

Depends on your time frame I suppose Bean, I am not a day trader.

 

[bean]

POG is it factoring .5 % rate cut
what if its only .25%

The figures I mentioned being support levels for gold indieces last week are starting to become resistance.

The US markets on a technical analysis point the advance/decline line (10 Day) on the Nasdaq when it moves down to 0.75 on the first occassion %wise it can have a drop of 2-3% on a number of occasions
To get 0.75 tonight all it needs is 1125 advancing stocks and 1925 declining stocks so a down day could easily be on the cards
A number of other Indicies in the US are in a similar boat for tonight so a down night won't be pretty.

The POG may be caught in the down draft

 

[>Apocalypto<]

POG is it factoring .5 % rate cut
what if its only .25%

The figures I mentioned being support levels for gold indieces last week are starting to become resistance.

The US markets on a technical analysis point the advance/decline line (10 Day) on the Nasdaq when it moves down to 0.75 on the first occassion %wise it can have a drop of 2-3% on a number of occasions
To get 0.75 tonight all it needs is 1125 advancing stocks and 1925 declining stocks so a down day could easily be on the cards
A number of other Indicies in the US are in a similar boat for tonight so a down night won't be pretty.

The POG may be caught in the down draft

yep there could be a lot on the cards to night in any thing that is connected to the us$

I had some euro/usd trades on but closed them down. want to see what happens tonight.

 

[explod]

Noteworthy of the last few months has been the weakness of silver. I have nocied that in the last few years silver has usually been the front indicator of the Bullion uplegs. Tonights action is the first real strength I have seen for some time. Could be interesting later tonight.

 

[Enoch]

Noteworthy of the last few months has been the weakness of silver. I have nocied that in the last few years silver has usually been the front indicator of the Bullion uplegs. Tonights action is the first real strength I have seen for some time. Could be interesting later tonight.

Hi Explode,

Currently the commitment of traders report shows the commercials are holding a small short position. This tends to occur just before a large move to the upside in silver.

I read an article which outlined it was the smallest position held for the last four years. As the short position held by commercials in Gold has increased this probably means that silver will begin outpacing gold once again.

In addition I tend to agree with you on your views on the gold price long term. I think I posted a link to a report in Barrons on this thread a couple of days ago which forecasts the Gold price above $800 in the next year.

With the central banks of the world injecting liquidity into the markets the way they are and the US Fed almost forced to reduce interest rates due to the mortgage crisis I cannot see how this is bearish for Gold long term.

Coupled with this the turmoil in the middle east, oil prices already over $80, inflation on the increase we could be in for interesting times ahead.

Bean,

You could be correct in the short term but as a long term investor I am not particularly bothered by short term fluctuations.

Time will tell.

 

[CanOz]

yep there could be a lot on the cards to night in any thing that is connected to the us$

I had some euro/usd trades on but closed them down. want to see what happens tonight.

My YG contracts been open since 712.00,

Just went long 3 contracts on the YM, with a sell stop for 10 at apex....on simulator of course...

Love this IB simulator!!!

 

[chops_a_must]

Should have been on it Can!

Looks like the non-front month contract is up 1% over $730 since the announcement.

Can't see what the front month is doing... Assume it is similar.

 

[explod]

Should have been on it Can!

Looks like the non-front month contract is up 1% over $730 since the announcement.

Can't see what the front month is doing... Assume it is similar.

The Kitco gold price charts have broken down but on my other indicators there is a surge up in both gold and silver in the last thirty minutes. The drop in the dollar will now reinforce and it will be hang onto your hats for bullion now.

 

[wayneL]

Can't see what the front month is doing... Assume it is similar.

The gold strip as of 3:15 PM NY time.



Dec Futs Chart

 

[Sean K]

if you own gold....

U.S. Gold Futures Hit 28-year High After Fed Cut
18 Sep 2007 | 03:10 PM

U.S. gold futures rose to a 28-year high in screen trade on Tuesday, after the Federal Reserve slashed the benchmark interest rate by a half-percentage point in a bid to boost the economy.

On the Globex electronic platform used by the New York Mercantile Exchange and its COMEX metals division, the December gold contract is up $8.50 or 1.2 percent at $732.30 an ounce. Just minutes earlier, it rallied to a high of $733.40.

I wonder how sustainable the break will be, or if it's just news related? If the USD is doomed then it may have some long term legs.

 

[explod]

if you own gold....



I wonder how sustainable the break will be, or if it's just news related? If the USD is doomed then it may have some long term legs.

Totally sustainable now, blue skies for gold and the US dollar is doomed to the scap heap. Our own dollar has gone up 1.5% tonight, that says it all.

Worth tuning in to Jim Cramer on Bloomberg U-tube on the Fed and the dollar

 

[chops_a_must]

if you own gold....



I wonder how sustainable the break will be, or if it's just news related? If the USD is doomed then it may have some long term legs.

Indeed.

It's almost been a perfect storm brewing for gold over the past week. But as always happens, the rise in gold will tank the overall market, which will in turn feed on itself. But for now, I'm not complaining!

 

[wavepicker]

if you own gold....



I wonder how sustainable the break will be, or if it's just news related? If the USD is doomed then it may have some long term legs.

Probably a few weeks at best.

USD is not doomed IMO. This is the last roll of the dice for $$$ bears. Contrarians should be eyeing this and looking for a higher low to form. Ending Diagonals resolve is either 2 ways:

- a sharp reversal which could have happened today OR
- or a capitualtion wave 5 or throwover(lower contracting trendline) which is temporary and is eventually fully retraced which did happen today

On occasion it's difficult to tell which of the 2 until the move actually starts

Looks like we got the throwover. I would say this move down will be over by no later then years end(being conservative- will probabaly be sooner)

In the last major stock market move down some weeks ago there was flight to the USD, if the market enters a prolonged bear campaign we could see a similiar but more prolonged trend.

Cheers

 

[chops_a_must]

Probably a few weeks at best.

USD is not doomed IMO. This is the last roll of the dice for $$$ bears.

Yes yes, and you've been saying exactly the same thing for the last 6 months.

 

[Nick Radge]

We could always look at facts:

(1) Gold broke out of a symmetrical triangle on high volume. There is a 70% chance of a retest of the breakout which increases if there is significant resistance above. The all-time highs are right here.

(2) After a successful retest of the breakout, there is an 86% chance of Gold then moving to the target level of the triangle.

 

[wavepicker]

Yes yes, and you've been saying exactly the same thing for the last 6 months.

Wrong,

I have been saying downside will be limited for the last 6 months because we are in a creeping trend down. Six month ago USD Index was trading at
81.30, now is 79.20, that 2.5% lower than six months ago, hardly a crash wouldn't you say???

 

[chops_a_must]

Wrong ,

I have been saying downside will be limited for the last 6 months because we are in a creeping trend down. Six month ago USD Index was trading at
81.30, now is 79.20, that 2.5% lower than six months ago, hardly a crash wouldn't you say???

Yes, but on your contrarian trade you would still be down 2.5% over 6 months.

Your call for gold to go to $540 before the next run was invalidated, and yet you expect us to go along with your forecasts based on now invalidated analysis? Well, tough titties.

 

[bean]

DOOM AND GLOOM ON THE US$

The US $ index is today at 79 Gold is @ US$ 720
May 2006 US $ index was @ 89 wonder what price Gold was then?

 

[wavepicker]

Yes, but on your contrarian trade you would still be down 2.5% over 6 months.

Your call for gold to go to $540 before the next run was invalidated, and yet you expect us to go along with your forecasts based on now invalidated analysis? Well, tough titties.

Man,

I could not give a fat rats ass wether you follow my forecasts or not, in fact I won't even bother posting them anymore, better to concentrate making $$ than give clowns like you the time of day.

For your information my forecast on Gold was made in April/May 2006 1 week before the peak. Everyone was bullish at the time. I even draw out a little roadmap with the likely pattern of trend. You know what, it even followed the path in that chart for the first year since the call. The call then was for Gold to go to $540. It went to $542. Don't beleive me, go back and look for yourself?? I even made 3 CORRECT trades in a row on Gold following this.

For the last 6 months it has not.


Now I lay you the challenge. If you think you can do better, place you analysis on this thread forecasting the move in Gold for the next 6 months, let's even place a nice wager on it, what do you say?? Or will you chicken out of this one too??

 

[chops_a_must]

I don't pretend to know where things are going, and I don't care. I don't rely on forecasts to trade off. I rely on what is.

But if I make a forecast like you did above, ok, I will. The USD will go up in the next few weeks, with that move ending sometime by the end of the year. See, I can't be wrong can I? And a 100% chance of being right does not a 100% chance of making money make.

FWIW I'd have a punt on gold reaching between 750-775 on this run.


And yes Bean, this time around it isn't a USD story. As I said above, it is a perfect storm. Energy, potential inflation and problems in Syria and Iran. There is more than one thing influencing this now.