Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[wavepicker]

I don't rely on forecasts to trade off. I rely on what is.

It looks like you “Long Walk” is going to last a long time

PS, Don’t compare yourself to Plato or Socrates, you don’t even come close. Being my ancestors even I have more chance than you.

Ohhh, and don’t bother replying, you won’t get a response

 

[theasxgorilla]

And yes Bean, this time around it isn't a USD story. As I said above, it is a perfect storm. Energy, potential inflation and problems in Syria and Iran. There is more than one thing influencing this now.

I can't help but wonder if the US powers that be aren't cunning enough to keep that in reserve to help markets find a bottom if need be, like they did with Iraq.

 

[chops_a_must]

PS, Don’t compare yourself to Plato or Socrates, you don’t even come close. Being my ancestors even I have more chance than you.

I wouldn't dare, but it sure as hell beats the Protagorean like discussion we've had on this page.

 

[CanOz]

Should have been on it Can!

Looks like the non-front month contract is up 1% over $730 since the announcement.

Can't see what the front month is doing... Assume it is similar.

I've got a sell order in on my gold contracts now. Having been asleep i missed all the action so i'll have to try and save everything before it retests....same goes for the YM long, too close to 13900 for my liking....

Really starting to like this IB platform for orders....charting still sucks though.

Cheers all.

 

[explod]

I can't help but wonder if the US powers that be aren't cunning enough to keep that in reserve to help markets find a bottom if need be, like they did with Iraq.

Commentators I have learned to respect for good insight are saying this morning that the Fed rate cut is financial suicide. It is the rate cuts of the past few years that have caused the problem in the first place and this will just make it worse.

The decision seems more on political cosmetics to try and hold the Dow up because it is this signal the US voters are effected by psychologically. The Fed is bowing to pressure to try and bail out the hedge funds and shonky lenders. The borrowers in housing are shot anyway. If the "US powers that be are cunning" it is not for the good of the people.

Anyway you can have you charts and waves etc. etc., just glad I stayed long gold because pay day is coming now.

 

[Edwood]

here's an update on the bearish pattern - daily view - getting a bit extended now but still in play (as you can see these things can run on which is why I find them only useful to flag potential moves & to be alert for a possible change of direction). As always no guarantee this will play out, just highlighting for reference. Cheers

 

[CanOz]

Probably a few weeks at best.

USD is not doomed IMO. This is the last roll of the dice for $$$ bears. Contrarians should be eyeing this and looking for a higher low to form. Ending Diagonals resolve is either 2 ways:

- a sharp reversal which could have happened today OR
- or a capitualtion wave 5 or throwover(lower contracting trendline) which is temporary and is eventually fully retraced which did happen today

On occasion it's difficult to tell which of the 2 until the move actually starts

Looks like we got the throwover. I would say this move down will be over by no later then years end(being conservative- will probabaly be sooner)

In the last major stock market move down some weeks ago there was flight to the USD, if the market enters a prolonged bear campaign we could see a similiar but more prolonged trend.

Cheers

FWIW, IMO the DX is in a falling wedge, thats bullish short term and look like a bounce soon...no time for the chart, later tonite maybe...everythings coming together for another drop in the markets, carry trade etc., then another ise in USD, retrace in GOLD....

 

[explod]

Nice chart Edwood but it just looks like a wonderful uptrend to me.

Best book I ever read for investing which put me on the absolule track in my view and handling of tech analysis (got me away from the fancy gadgets) is "Trend Following, How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets" by Michael Covel, Prentice Hall 2004

 

[Edwood]

Nice chart Edwood but it just looks like a wonderful uptrend to me.

Best book I ever read for investing which put me on the absolule track in my view and handling of tech analysis (got me away from the fancy gadgets) is "Trend Following, How Great Traders Make Millions in Up or Down Markets" by Michael Covel, Prentice Hall 2004

fair enough explod, one of these patterns recently netted me 2,600pts in 5 weeks on an NZD-GBP move so I tend to keep an eye on them. Kiwi was in a wonderful downtrend at the time fwiw.

 

[Jadefox]

Man,

I could not give a fat rats ass wether you follow my forecasts or not, in fact I won't even bother posting them anymore, better to concentrate making $$ than give clowns like you the time of day.

For your information my forecast on Gold was made in April/May 2006 1 week before the peak. Everyone was bullish at the time. I even draw out a little roadmap with the likely pattern of trend. You know what, it even followed the path in that chart for the first year since the call. The call then was for Gold to go to $540. It went to $542. Don't beleive me, go back and look for yourself?? I even made 3 CORRECT trades in a row on Gold following this.

For the last 6 months it has not.


Now I lay you the challenge. If you think you can do better, place you analysis on this thread forecasting the move in Gold for the next 6 months, let's even place a nice wager on it, what do you say?? Or will you chicken out of this one too??

Wavepicker,

I for one regard your posts as some of the most informative and educational on this forum. I'd be seriously disappointed if you stopped posting due to one person's response.

 

[Kauri]

Not a very scientific analysis but I would hazard a guess that one more step may see gold ready for a small correction... ..
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[buggalug]

We could always look at facts:

(1) Gold broke out of a symmetrical triangle on high volume. There is a 70% chance of a retest of the breakout which increases if there is significant resistance above. The all-time highs are right here.

(2) After a successful retest of the breakout, there is an 86% chance of Gold then moving to the target level of the triangle.

Nick,

Very interesting stats there, is that from your studies?

btw I just finished reading your book, it was excellent, hope you are planning on writing more in the future.

 

[bean]

Last week mentioned I thought POG may make 720-725 range
I have also said gold Indices may break out and be bullish fo a few days.
I said a "False Hope"

Well someone has forgot to tell a lot of the Aussie Gold stocks that gold is over US 700

I am still 100% cash and don't think I have missed anything some shares are trading less than what I sold them for last week.
I will be worried if POG is still about US 700 next week. I could have missed the boat.

A extraxt from Ted Butlers latest. I found the bit about the COT'S interesting

The most recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT) confirmed the continued deterioration in gold, with tech fund and speculative buying versus further dealer short selling. As expected, the latest COT report as of September 11, indicated more than 36,000 futures contracts were added to the commercial net short position, placing it mid-range in my guess of 30 to 40,000 last week. This puts the total commercial net short position at just over 160,000 contracts, up almost 70,000 from the lows four weeks ago.

Since the Tuesday COT cut-off, as many as 20,000 more gold contracts may have been added to the tech fund long/dealer short position. This places the COT gold market structure in clear bearish territory. That doesn’t mean gold can’t trade higher, or rule out the possibility that the dealers could get over run (oh happy day!), but history strongly suggests that the dealers will rig a sharp sell-off sooner or later. In fact, it is precisely the negative market structure in gold that concerns me most about silver, as there is nothing in the silver market structure itself that suggests high risk.

I am a long term gold bull

 

[champ2003]

Last week mentioned I thought POG may make 720-725 range
I have also said gold Indices may break out and be bullish fo a few days.
I said a "False Hope"

Well someone has forgot to tell a lot of the Aussie Gold stocks that gold is over US 700

I am still 100% cash and don't think I have missed anything some shares are trading less than what I sold them for last week.
I will be worried if POG is still about US 700 next week. I could have missed the boat.

A extraxt from Ted Butlers latest. I found the bit about the COT'S interesting



I am a long term gold bull

The most recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT) confirmed the continued deterioration in gold, with tech fund and speculative buying versus further dealer short selling. As expected, the latest COT report as of September 11, indicated more than 36,000 futures contracts were added to the commercial net short position, placing it mid-range in my guess of 30 to 40,000 last week. This puts the total commercial net short position at just over 160,000 contracts, up almost 70,000 from the lows four weeks ago.

Since the Tuesday COT cut-off, as many as 20,000 more gold contracts may have been added to the tech fund long/dealer short position. This places the COT gold market structure in clear bearish territory. That doesn’t mean gold can’t trade higher, or rule out the possibility that the dealers could get over run (oh happy day!), but history strongly suggests that the dealers will rig a sharp sell-off sooner or later. In fact, it is precisely the negative market structure in gold that concerns me most about silver, as there is nothing in the silver market structure itself that suggests high risk. )


That report sounds interesting however alot has happened since the 11th Sept and do you think that there is a strong possibility that the traders have now gone long in their positions since the hike in interest rates?

 

[bean]

The most recent Commitment of Traders Report (COT) confirmed the continued deterioration in gold, with tech fund and speculative buying versus further dealer short selling. As expected, the latest COT report as of September 11, indicated more than 36,000 futures contracts were added to the commercial net short position, placing it mid-range in my guess of 30 to 40,000 last week. This puts the total commercial net short position at just over 160,000 contracts, up almost 70,000 from the lows four weeks ago.

Since the Tuesday COT cut-off, as many as 20,000 more gold contracts may have been added to the tech fund long/dealer short position. This places the COT gold market structure in clear bearish territory. That doesn’t mean gold can’t trade higher, or rule out the possibility that the dealers could get over run (oh happy day!), but history strongly suggests that the dealers will rig a sharp sell-off sooner or later. In fact, it is precisely the negative market structure in gold that concerns me most about silver, as there is nothing in the silver market structure itself that suggests high risk. )


That report sounds interesting however alot has happened since the 11th Sept and do you think that there is a strong possibility that the traders have now gone long in their positions since the hike in interest rates?

No they have probably added some more...However see silver shot up because the structure is still O/K in Silver...but if POG drops/hit silver will follow.
More often than not within a few days of when Butler seems to mention COT'S structures being bearish the POG is hit.

The US markets are probabley oversold...so the rally there may be short lived...and was a short covering rally where the bears were crushed.

With the POG the fundamentals are really bullish...
However
POG was this in May 06...the US gold Indicies still a bit of there highs st back then...But gold stocks here (Aust) and there(US) some are way from there highs set back then.

The US$ beaten down but may be due for a bounce?
US gold stocks are overbought (but can still go higher).

Any move down and it won't just be POG or Gold Indicies.

 

[Whiskers]

Any move down and it won't just be POG or Gold Indicies.

Hi bean

I'm following this thread and your expertise with great interest. Could you eloberate on what you mean in the above statement.

 

[bean]

POG well what could a gold bull want...the fundamentals are right for a rise. The gold Indices are moving out/up but are still lagging the POG.

Top for POG US 730??? If I said that you would be speechless everything is in place for POG to go no where but up.

But if the COT's bearishness means the POG may be hit then how?
One way would be for the gold shares to be hit...but POG is strong???

So does that mean Commodities and the markets in general will correct and USD bounces from its lows. Seems like a logical way for it to happen???

Press headlines would be Deflation??
Not Hyper Inflation as the FED is doing with the cut?

 

[Whiskers]

Thanks for that bean.

Good food for thought for a novice to the mechanics of the commodities markets.

 

[Sean K]

Top for POG US 730??? If I said that you would be speechless everything is in place for POG to go no where but up.

POG's only going up now beanster?

 

[Kauri]

POG's only going up now beanster?

I find it quite clear.. I think.... the only thing stopping it going down is its going up.. ...
Cheers
...........Kauri