Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Smurf1976]

I note quite a lot of media commentary regarding gold exceeding USD 3000.

The contrarian in me sees the attention as indicating a short term top. Not based on any fundamental analysis of gold, just on the attention it's receiving.

 

[Sdajii]

I note quite a lot of media commentary regarding gold exceeding USD 3000.

The contrarian in me sees the attention as indicating a short term top. Not based on any fundamental analysis of gold, just on the attention it's receiving.

Given it is an extremely high profile, highly cherished and exalted thing right across the globe, any heavy focus on it is likely to attract more buyers than sellers, especially at a time when the market is fearful and not trusting of the traditional safe haven of the USD.

Does anyone honestly feel like they'd be more happy not holding gold than holding it right now?

 

[Sean K]

I note quite a lot of media commentary regarding gold exceeding USD 3000.

The contrarian in me sees the attention as indicating a short term top. Not based on any fundamental analysis of gold, just on the attention it's receiving.

Haven't had a decent correction and consolidation for a while. It's inevitable, just a matter of when. Probably a buying opportunity in a secular bull market.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I note quite a lot of media commentary regarding gold exceeding USD 3000.

The contrarian in me sees the attention as indicating a short term top. Not based on any fundamental analysis of gold, just on the attention it's receiving.

well I started getting interested in Gold , through PMGOLD, when it was about $25, or A$2500 an oz, a bit over 2 years ago, and I based that on a view that as a non-yield asset, it could be seen as insurance, not correlating with other asset classes. This was particularly so as we seem to have entered a dangerous time in world affairs.

But I only committed 2 percent of the portfolio, and then fell into a common 'watch and don't act' state of remorse.

Had I committed to buying more to boost the holding to 5 percent at the time, with gold effectively doubling over the past 2 years, I would /could trim it back to that level of comfort. But I didn't buy, and want to hold that 5 percent level, so I'm sitting.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

While this thread was being hijacked by bull**** and bullshitters over the weekend I posted this Gold post on @Sean K 's trading thread. It is well worth a read for anyone interested in investing in Gold and has some dire predictions which may or may not eventuate.

Sean K Trading

While there might be some more to be squeezed out of this, I should use my brain and take some profits. But, breaking ATHs makes me think just technically there's no ceiling. So, I'm vexed. I'll probably hold it and then it's crash. I squeezed a little more and sold half of this at .915 for...

www.aussiestockforums.com

gg

 

[qldfrog]

As a gold bug in current economic times, this reminds me i should not go over my 10% target in PM
Will check weekly and put a raising SL on the extra from paper gold

 

[divs4ever]

Given it is an extremely high profile, highly cherished and exalted thing right across the globe, any heavy focus on it is likely to attract more buyers than sellers, especially at a time when the market is fearful and not trusting of the traditional safe haven of the USD.

Does anyone honestly feel like they'd be more happy not holding gold than holding it right now?

YES , i would worry concerned Governments would be plotting to relieve you of it one way or another ( via taxation or something else )

 

[Sdajii]

YES , i would worry concerned Governments would be plotting to relieve you of it one way or another ( via taxation or something else )

The elephant in the room which does get talked about but still isn't given as much focus as an elephant in a small room should, is that the world's reserve currency has for bizarre reasons been the currency of one particular country, and that country is now in a state of absolute collapse. Something will need to replace the USD, and IMO gold is most likely. The collapse of the USA (or more relevantly, the world acknowledging it has happened) will have a massive impact no one wants to think about, but when that happens you'll be glad to be holding any gold you have.

 

[mullokintyre]

The elephant in the room which does get talked about but still isn't given as much focus as an elephant in a small room should, is that the world's reserve currency has for bizarre reasons been the currency of one particular country, and that country is now in a state of absolute collapse. Something will need to replace the USD, and IMO gold is most likely. The collapse of the USA (or more relevantly, the world acknowledging it has happened) will have a massive impact no one wants to think about, but when that happens you'll be glad to be holding any gold you have.

The US is in no better or worse position than many other countries, including Australia.
So many countries are facing major demographic issues, some have debt issues, some have political instability issues, some have security issues, and there are some countries that have all of the above.
Mick

 

[Sdajii]

The US is in no better or worse position than many other countries, including Australia.
So many countries are facing major demographic issues, some have debt issues, some have political instability issues, some have security issues, and there are some countries that have all of the above.
Mick

Oh, absolutely. The USA is far from alone and Australia is collapsing from within for similar reasons in a similar way by the same states deliberately causing it - I'm acutely aware of it, have been talking about it since the 90s and chose to leave Australia over 10 years ago because of it, which was heartbreaking because Australia was hands down the best country in the world. The most sad aspect of Australia's loss is the culture. I think most people just sort of forgot what Australia is like and their memories really don't seem to function, but if you watch old live Australian television or old whimsical Australian TV shows you can get a feel for it and it might trigger your memory.

When Australia was clearly heading in a terrible direction and I started travelling, looking for an alternative, it was a sad realisation that every country is heading in a bad direction. Ironically, for me the best options seemed to be third world countries! For logistical and practical reasons you wouldn't want to be born into a typical family in one, but even so, the people born into even those situations are much happier than most Australians! Australia has become such a culturally toxic place, after being just so brilliant 30+ years ago.

You'll notice that the people who most think Australia (and the USA/West) is heading in the right direction are the ones with blue hair or covered in tattoos or piercings, celebrating the vandalism of Teslas which until recently they were in full support of, embracing increasingly restrictive government regulations and the loss of traditional family structure.

Oh, right, let's discuss gold...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

While this thread was being hijacked by bull**** and bullshitters over the weekend I posted this Gold post on @Sean K 's trading thread. It is well worth a read for anyone interested in investing in Gold and has some dire predictions which may or may not eventuate.

Sean K Trading

While there might be some more to be squeezed out of this, I should use my brain and take some profits. But, breaking ATHs makes me think just technically there's no ceiling. So, I'm vexed. I'll probably hold it and then it's crash. I squeezed a little more and sold half of this at .915 for...

www.aussiestockforums.com

gg

I can’t understand why posters wanting to discuss general topics cannot go to the General Chat section. Perhaps they are afraid of the incisive and deeply thought out musings of Rumpole on anything but stocks.

Anyways. Gold is threatening to fall in price and this thread has become indicative of the fall in standards and couth ( look it up ) of the Australia I love.





gg

 

[finicky]

^^^
Yawn

 

[rcw1]

Good afternoon gold believers extraordinaire ...

rcw1 come across an article published by Nicola Blackburn, in the AFR, 4.15pm 20/03/25. She has interviewed Arden Jennings who is co-portfolio manager of Ausbil’s small-cap and micro-cap funds. The firm oversees $19.4 billion in assets. During the course of this interview Blackburn posed this question of Jennings:

Genesis Minerals is a top holding in the small-cap fund. How much further do you think gold prices have to go?

Jennings response:
Genesis Minerals is a top five position in our small-cap fund and we’ve had it for many years. It was a micro-cap graduate that’s now a small cap. Gold prices are hitting a record as it’s perceived as a safe haven. That means many of the gold producers are actually generating significant free cash flow.

From Ausbil’s perspective, we still see significant consensus upgrades in 2025 for gold, given that spot prices are sitting significantly above their current forecasts. That will lead to positive earnings revisions for a lot of share prices, including, we believe, for Genesis.

rcw1 holds both physical gold and GMD shares. Pretty nifty really,.... ha ha ha ha
For mine, rcw1 does possess the 'crystal ball' vision, hand on heart, of the gold price still having a long way to go, with the true heavy lifting in price yet to be truly realised.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Sean K]

Rickards is no dummy, but he is a gold bull.

 

[divs4ever]

The elephant in the room which does get talked about but still isn't given as much focus as an elephant in a small room should, is that the world's reserve currency has for bizarre reasons been the currency of one particular country, and that country is now in a state of absolute collapse. Something will need to replace the USD, and IMO gold is most likely. The collapse of the USA (or more relevantly, the world acknowledging it has happened) will have a massive impact no one wants to think about, but when that happens you'll be glad to be holding any gold you have.

well gold is a likely candidate for an international trading currency ( again )
BUT unless governments topple ( or massively change their ways ) would gold be allowed to trade unhindered ( i suggest NOT )

i have a better chance of trading chicken eggs ( for say duck eggs , or bales of hay ) with nearby residents farms , than letting a government mediate my transactions ( locally or internationally )

they ( governments ) have a long track record , and the final chapter is coming fast

does international trade collapse completely because of ( multiple ) government interference on the swapping of commodities ( be it gold oil , silver or rice)

sorry guys/gals but i am way too old to start smuggling gold/silver now , but i could probably get by , by trading with nearby residents as needed

 

[Boggo]

 

[divs4ever]

Rickards is no dummy, but he is a gold bull.

that translates to hyper-inflation of the publicly accepted currencies

an ounce of gold is still an ounce of gold AND it's ability to acquire a tangible asset will roughly stay the same over the mid-term ( you won't be suddenly able to buy 29 times the extra houses with the same quantity of gold )

 

[Sdajii]

well gold is a likely candidate for an international trading currency ( again )
BUT unless governments topple ( or massively change their ways ) would gold be allowed to trade unhindered ( i suggest NOT )

i have a better chance of trading chicken eggs ( for say duck eggs , or bales of hay ) with nearby residents farms , than letting a government mediate my transactions ( locally or internationally )

they ( governments ) have a long track record , and the final chapter is coming fast

does international trade collapse completely because of ( multiple ) government interference on the swapping of commodities ( be it gold oil , silver or rice)

sorry guys/gals but i am way too old to start smuggling gold/silver now , but i could probably get by , by trading with nearby residents as needed

I don't know exactly how it will play out, and I agree that powerful governments won't want people having a fair currency they can't control, but the USD doesn't seem set to last much longer and I can't see the world agree to going with China's money any more than I want it to happen. The Euro? Can't see that either. Probably not the AUD or Lao kip either. Bitcoin will probably have a role in the game, insane as that is. Gold surely has a big role , however it plays out. It doesn't really matter how things go, if there's a huge money/currency shakeup, gold will surely surge like never before.

We all know the USD is a house of cards on the top floor of a dilapidated building in the path of a tornado and seismic data suggests an earquake is due. As soon as this reality is even hinted at in any significant mainstream narrative, and the masses realise how much of a safe haven the USD now isn't, and any economic reaction starts, gold will rally harder than we've seen yet before the status of the USD actually changes.

Look at the USA, the debt spiral is out of control. DOGE has saved a huge amount of wasted money and that's lovely, but it's a tiny fraction of what's needed. Even just taking out the obviously ridiculous nonsense has half the population throwing wild tantrums. If they were to slash double the amount out of the budget it would mostly have to come out of important spending rather than queer gender ideology education for Middle Eastern militia groups etc, and even if they tripled the amount they've slashed it would still only somewhat slow the debt spiral. Not to mention the incredible corruption and cultural division, hatred and half the population hating their own country. However it plays out, it doesn't seem like the current global reserve currency can last too much longer.

Heck, maybe it's worth selling all my gold now to buy guns, ammo, tinned food and a really nice water purifier.

 

[divs4ever]

I don't know exactly how it will play out, and I agree that powerful governments won't want people having a fair currency they can't control, but the USD doesn't seem set to last much longer and I can't see the world agree to going with China's money any more than I want it to happen. The Euro? Can't see that either. Probably not the AUD or Lao kip either. Bitcoin will probably have a role in the game, insane as that is. Gold surely has a big role , however it plays out. It doesn't really matter how things go, if there's a huge money/currency shakeup, gold will surely surge like never before.

We all know the USD is a house of cards on the top floor of a dilapidated building in the path of a tornado and seismic data suggests an earquake is due. As soon as this reality is even hinted at in any significant mainstream narrative, and the masses realise how much of a safe haven the USD now isn't, and any economic reaction starts, gold will rally harder than we've seen yet before the status of the USD actually changes.

Look at the USA, the debt spiral is out of control. DOGE has saved a huge amount of wasted money and that's lovely, but it's a tiny fraction of what's needed. Even just taking out the obviously ridiculous nonsense has half the population throwing wild tantrums. If they were to slash double the amount out of the budget it would mostly have to come out of important spending rather than queer gender ideology education for Middle Eastern militia groups etc, and even if they tripled the amount they've slashed it would still only somewhat slow the debt spiral. Not to mention the incredible corruption and cultural division, hatred and half the population hating their own country. However it plays out, it doesn't seem like the current global reserve currency can last too much longer.

Heck, maybe it's worth selling all my gold now to buy guns, ammo, tinned food and a really nice water purifier.

as i understand it China does NOT want reserve currency status , but would be comfortable as one component is 'a basket of currencies ' which could become 'the reserve currency '

say 25% yuan , 25% rupee , etc etc etc equals one Globo ( an invented name as a place-marker )

both China and India have seen how the power of 'reserve currency ' has been abused and would not like to be on the receiving end of such abuse again

now gold is a relatively finite ( depending on future mining ) commodity and as a official currency ( trade exchange for the settlements of trade ) would make several nations race towards neutral trade balances ( no more trade deficits ) and others towards positive trade balances , while those with persistent trade deficits needing to find ( or mine ) gold to settle accounts ( or we run into debt/default issues all over again )

BUT will we ( the gullible masses ) be sold a digital currency with all the issues that will create

 

[Sdajii]

as i understand it China does NOT want reserve currency status , but would be comfortable as one component is 'a basket of currencies ' which could become 'the reserve currency '

say 25% yuan , 25% rupee , etc etc etc equals one Globo ( an invented name as a place-marker )

both China and India have seen how the power of 'reserve currency ' has been abused and would not like to be on the receiving end of such abuse again

now gold is a relatively finite ( depending on future mining ) commodity and as a official currency ( trade exchange for the settlements of trade ) would make several nations race towards neutral trade balances ( no more trade deficits ) and others towards positive trade balances , while those with persistent trade deficits needing to find ( or mine ) gold to settle accounts ( or we run into debt/default issues all over again )

BUT will we ( the gullible masses ) be sold a digital currency with all the issues that will create

As I said, I can not see Chinese currency being the reserve currency, and yep, what you describe is one of the many valid reasons.

...the 'Globo' by whatever name is may be given if it comes to be, is a possibility, but that would be a tremendous thing to set up which wouldn't happen overnight even if all parties were loving, caring, trusting friends keen to make a deal fair for all involved, and the real world situation is perhaps slightly less ideal than that.

So, even if plans an negotiations have already been going on in silent for several years, which I doubt, because someone in one of the countries would have spilled the beans by now even if the story was dismissed as a 'conspiracy theory', but we've heard nothing about it.

And as soon as there was any public murmers of setting up a Globo, gold's rally would accelerate during the years it was being set up, even if just due to speculation that the Globo would fail, and even if it eventually was a huge success.