Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[greggles]

First stop is US$2,500 and I'm convinced we will get there this week. I think it will go below that but if it goes lower than US$2,450 then US$2,300 is possible. But I don't see any scenario where it goes lower than that, other than some kind of black swan event.

I think gold will bottom out somewhere between US$2,450 and US$2,500.

 

[DaveTrade]

Hum i am optimistic on a rebound, but got tight SL on that one for as i reentered some positions on friday based on some chart crystal ball readings

Hope I'm wrong about it going lower but the big trend is still intact.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Physical gold can be can be confiscated by the Government which has happened before in America and our country

Part IV Banking Act 1959 Australia
Gave the authority to seize gold from private citizens in exchange for paper money. The act was abolished in 1976

Executive order 6102
President Roosevelt orders gold to be surrendered to the Federal Reserve in exchange for $20.67 an ounce
May 1, 1933

Interesting that you say that. I assumed that our gold bars were in my good wife's knicker drawer and after I sold all the SMSF's PMGOLD I went looking for it. As I searched she came in to the bedroom and said in "that" voice, "What are you doing? " I replied that I wanted to count rhe Gold Bar. She said she had moved it as she read an article that the knicker drawer is one of the first places thieves search for valuables.

I said to her, "So what would happen if they tortured me and couldn't find the bar?"

She just shrugged her shoulders. She still hasn't told me as she says I am unreliable !! So the government won't find mine as I don't know where it is.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

While it would be nice to see some consolidation at $2500 it is more likely to occur at $2300-$2400 or thereabouts on the chart. There is still considerable volume in the retracement from all time highs and Gold is no longer the commodity of risk and mania it was just a few weeks ago. Lower lows and lower highs are visible on this 4 hourly chart from kitco via trading view.

It won't frop as much in $AUD as gold is denominated in $USD and the latter has gained strength since Trump's win.The new POTUS has certainly had some interesting picks for his cabinet so I see no reason why gold should not increase in price once it stabilises. Who knows what fundamental reason there will be for a reversal. Iran is a bit of a worry. If there is a change of leadership to a more Western friendly one the losers won't just get a nice retirement in a mosque of their choice, they'll feel themselves lucky to be quickly shot.





gg

 

[Sean K]

Second slightly unconscious cat.

Let's see what it does at it's first floor challenge across 2600 ish.

 

[peter2]

Gold and oil price spiked higher after news that the Old geezer in the US has allowed Ukraine to use long range missiles. WW3 is a step closer. This'll be Biden's presidential legacy.

 

[qldfrog]

Gold and oil price spiked higher after news that the Old geezer in the US has allowed Ukraine to use long range missiles. WW3 is a step closer. This'll be Biden's presidential legacy.

Yeap, if i forget my relatives and 300 millions others in Europe, great news for my portfolio last night...

 

[rcw1]

Good morning
AFR Article written by Alex Gluyas and published 18.11.24 5.15pm: Goldman reveals the best commodities to buy for 2025

In part:

Goldman’s head of commodity research Daan Struyven has said, “Long gold and oil positions can act as critical inflation and geopolitical hedges in tail scenarios, including tariff escalation, geopolitical oil supply disruptions, and debt fears,”

The bank forecasts the S&P GSCI benchmark, one of the broadest measures of global commodities, to increase 11 per cent by the end of 2025. Excluding agriculture and livestock, it sees the benchmark gaining 16 per cent.

That will be fuelled by a resurgent gold price, which Goldman still expects to hit $US3000 an ounce by December next year. While the precious metal has retreated 7 per cent since the US election, it has created an “attractive entry point” for traders.

Goldman’s bullish gold forecast is mainly driven by growing demand from central banks and an expected boost in exchange-traded fund holdings as the US Federal Reserve cuts rates.

Morgan Stanley is less optimistic, warning that a stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yields will leave prices at $US2600 an ounce by the end of next year.

Have a great day, today.

Kind regards

rcw1

 

[Sean K]

Correction over??

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Correction over??



View attachment 188185

Unless I get dragged in to FOMO I'lll wait for a higher low and high.

I usually don't look at stocks I've sold for a while after, but in the case of Gold I'll make an exception, particularly if the AUD strengthens against the USD for a dip in to PMGOLD again.

gg

 

[Sdajii]

Unless I get dragged in to FOMO I'lll wait for a higher low and high.

I usually don't look at stocks I've sold for a while after, but in the case of Gold I'll make an exception, particularly if the AUD strengthens against the USD for a dip in to PMGOLD again.

gg

What's your preference for PMGOLD over GOLD or any of the others?

Oh, and it seems some people are jumping at shadows. One or two green candles and the correction is over, a red one and we're about to test $2400. In reality, it's a volatile, unpredictable situation and with the lack of certainty,it looks like some people are being very fickle with their outlooks.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

What's your preference for PMGOLD over GOLD or any of the others?

Oh, and it seems some people are jumping at shadows. One or two green candles and the correction is over, a red one and we're about to test $2400. In reality, it's a volatile, unpredictable situation and with the lack of certainty,it looks like some people are being very fickle with their outlooks.

I've always gone with PMGOLD. Do you see an advantage with GOLD or others?

I agree re volatility.

gg

 

[Craton]

What's your preference for PMGOLD over GOLD or any of the others?

Oh, and it seems some people are jumping at shadows. One or two green candles and the correction is over, a red one and we're about to test $2400. In reality, it's a volatile, unpredictable situation and with the lack of certainty,it looks like some people are being very fickle with their outlooks.

As most of us know, one's outlook would depend and be influenced by many variables (trend/uptick/downtick/risk/reward/short/long/professional/sophisticated/maker/retail/volatility etc, etc, etc) including that big bugbear, the size of one's position.

 

[Sdajii]

I've always gone with PMGOLD. Do you see an advantage with GOLD or others?

I agree re volatility.

gg

I don't see any big difference between GOLD and PMGOLD in terms of appeal, it's just that you specifically referenced buying PMGOLD rather than just buying gold or an ETF or paper gold, so I thought you might have some reason to favour it, in which case I'd have begged to drink from the fountain of your knowledge and wisdom.

 

[rcw1]

... in which case I'd have begged to drink from the fountain of your knowledge and wisdom.

Good afternoon @Sdajii
I get it. you are getting @Garpal Gumnut mixed up with rcw1 ha ha ha ha ha

For mine, tangible or intangible ...
rcw1 prefers to rock it to sleep...

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[qldfrog]

I don't see any big difference between GOLD and PMGOLD in terms of appeal, it's just that you specifically referenced buying PMGOLD rather than just buying gold or an ETF or paper gold, so I thought you might have some reason to favour it, in which case I'd have begged to drink from the fountain of your knowledge and wisdom.

Pmgold seems to be legally attached to a 1 for 1 physical gold equivalent at least on the ASX.
Gold etf is not as far as i remember, and pmgold being a Perth Mint/WA state gov tool, more easily liable here if they default..so my preference for paper gold.
Happy to be proven wrong but that is my current assumption.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Pmgold seems to be legally attached to a 1 for 1 physical gold equivalent at least on the ASX.
Gold etf is not as far as i remember, and pmgold being a Perth Mint/WA state gov tool, more easily liable here if they default..so my preference for paper gold.
Happy to be proven wrong but that is my current assumption.

What's your preference for PMGOLD over GOLD or any of the others?

Oh, and it seems some people are jumping at shadows. One or two green candles and the correction is over, a red one and we're about to test $2400. In reality, it's a volatile, unpredictable situation and with the lack of certainty,it looks like some people are being very fickle with their outlooks.

Now that I think about it, there was a discussion some years ago on ASF on the merits of PMGOLD vs Gold etf's @Sdajii , and @qldfrog 's opinion above was the consensus opinion. The thinking was that the closer your investment is to an actual gold bar with government regulation, the safer the investment was if everything went to putty.

Interestingly after the point was raised yesterday I checked the price of PMGOLD and GOLD and the latter was cheaper. Maybe there is a premium for the WA Govt. backing, although PMGOLD follows closely the spot price on kitco.com converted to $AUD.

I'll put this on the PMGOLD thread for those who reference it.

gg

 

[Student of Gann]

Nov 22-25th could see counter trend Top in Gold then down into X where Low is indicated .

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I’m back in again and thanks to the vagaries of the USD/AUD at a price not too far above by sell point. I’ve got much less. I was quite comfortable holding a very unreasonably large holding, adding on the way up, but the Trump effect on BTC and Gold put the wind up me.

Basically I guess I’m more of a fearful investor than a greedy one. I did also manage to clear many dogs held for years to offset some CGT on Gold purchases this year. Lessons learnt.

It could still all go to crap, but I don’t believe it will.

gg

 

[Sean K]

I’m back in again and thanks to the vagaries of the USD/AUD at a price not too far above by sell point. I’ve got much less. I was quite comfortable holding a very unreasonably large holding, adding on the way up, but the Trump effect on BTC and Gold put the wind up me.

Basically I guess I’m more of a fearful investor than a greedy one. I did also manage to clear many dogs held for years to offset some CGT on Gold purchases this year. Lessons learnt.

It could still all go to crap, but I don’t believe it will.

gg

It's been a stunning bounce. Not a higher high or higher low in sight. Just straight back up...