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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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You are lucky you can stop after three. Enjoy the 3 tomorrow.

Hopefully Gold will retrace tonight to the high $USD2620's or lower and I might be tempted to add some more PMGOLD tomorrow.



I was very surprised to see it breach $2600 so easily, and it sailed past $2650, hopefully $2.6k will provide some support.

gg
 
First potential bounce for POG coming up on minor support. If you think the current medium term move was from the break out through 190 on GLD a 38% retracement and 50% retracement a likelihood.

Wagner at Kitko had those two level as a W4 support level to the move.

Long term and short term pictures.

 
The $AUD has weakened against the $USD by about 1.5c ( apologies in a previous post I said 2.5c , I have said previously if maths cannot be done on fingers leave me out ). Thus it is very good for holders in $AUD but is an issue when buying more.

Ideally I'd like to see POG consolidate at or just above $USD2600 for a while and the $AUD appreciate in value to be buying more in any reasonable volume. Then again FOMO that great assistant when trading may take over.

gg
 
I was going through kitco.com articles for this past week and found a very interesting article on why Gold may be due for a pause or even a retracement ... A lack of buyers and over investment in the metal by funds. It makes sense if you are bearish on the metal and needs to be held in mind by bulls.

Gold price to drop as the market is running out of buyers - DeCarley Trading’s Carley Garner

The Kitco News Team brings you the latest news, videos, analysis and opinions regarding Precious Metals, Crypto, Mining, World Markets and Global Economy.
www.kitco.com

Just click X to get rid of any popups asking you to remove an adblocker.

gg
 

It's very easy to make a case for why gold (or almost anything) may experience a consolidation or retrace after a massive run. If you need to read such a redundant article you're probably not ready to be investing. It may or may not happen, it's certainly a possibility. You can also make a case for it continuing to run, which is also possible.

You could summarise the whole situation as basically, everyone loves gold, everyone wants it, we all know that it's going to go up over time, that means there's buyers, but there has already been a lot of buying recently so the keen buyers are somewhat tapped out, some will be hoping for a retrace, and if a significant retrace happens it may gain momentum which will spook holders into selling and buyers into waiting. It's also possible that the run continues, FOMO dominates, global tensions continue to heat up, and gold goes to the moon. It could go either way, and if you think it's possible to predict with certainty if we're about to see a zig or a zag, you're deluded.

You could elaborate further and say that since we've already had a run, a pullback of some amount at some time is almost inevitable (but it may be from a higher price down to a higher price than we've seen yet, eg $2950 down to $2700). If you wanted to go further you could talk about various support and resistance levels and technical targets.

People often love to unnecessarily complicate things.

My 2c - gold's upwards trend is still very much intact, right now it's within 1% of its recent all time high, so I'm continuing to hold. If it looks like momentum actually has turned, I'll sell with a view to buy back as soon as momentum looks positive again, but I'll only do this if I'm confident about a significant pullback happening, because at worst I can just wait it out and it'll recover.

Also, 86% of all financial articles are deliberately misleading for the purpose of an agenda and the author of that one is 100% definitely without any doubt at all downramping because he's buying gold. Even jokes aside, it's very likely, even arguably the most likely scenario.
 
The history of the French repatriation of gold:


President de Gaulle of France initiated the secret operation “Vide-Gousset” and repatriated 3,313 tonnes of gold reserves from the vaults of the Federal Reserve in New York and the Bank of England in London from 1963 until 1966. De Gaulle feared America’s deficit in its balance of payments would rupture Bretton Woods and lead to a devaluation of the dollar against gold.

All France’s dollars were converted into gold, and to avoid treachery, the metal was repatriated over the course of three years. It took 44 boat trips and 129 flights to bring home more than three thousand tonnes of gold to the Banque de France in Paris.

France’s decision turned out extremely well. As was foreseen by the French, the price of gold in dollars increased sharply, from $35 to $800 dollars an ounce, from 1968 until 1980—the dollar lost 96% of its value against gold. Countries that held on to their dollars were less fortunate.

More recently, after the Great Financial Crisis, the Banque de France repatriated 211 tonnes, upgraded all its bars to current wholesale standards, overhauled its vaults, revived Paris as a trading hub for institutional investors, and history repeats itself as we are in a gold bull market presently.

Introduction to Bretton Woods​

At a conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, in 1944, delegates from 44 allied nations forged a new international monetary system. An agreement was made on a system of fixed exchange rates and free trade. Currencies were tied to gold via the dollar, as the Federal Reserve promised to buy and sell gold at a fixed price of $35 dollars per ounce, and foreign central banks had the obligation to keep their currencies within the “par values” to the dollar1.

The greenback was seen as “good as gold” because dollars could always be converted into gold at the Federal Reserve (Fed). And thus, next to gold, foreign central banks would hold dollars as international reserves, which made the Bretton Woods system comparable to the “gold exchange standard” from before the Second World War.

The newly erected International Monetary Fund (IMF) was to supervise Bretton Woods and support countries with short-term balance of payments deficits by lending reserves. With approval from the IMF, countries could devalue (revalue) their currency in case of persistent balance of payments deficits (surpluses) to restore equilibrium.

France’s Criticism of Bretton Woods​

In 1959, former General of the French military Charles de Gaulle became the President of France and sided with his most influential economic advisor, Jaques Rueff. Rueff and de Gaulle were vocal critics of Bretton Woods and America’s “exorbitant privilege.”

Bretton Woods allowed the U.S. to pay for imports with dollars it created out of thin air, as the system inherently made foreigners need dollars as a trade, intervention, and reserve currency. Only foreign central banks could redeem dollars for gold at the Fed if the Fed allowed them to. In addition, exported dollars caused inflation abroad as central banks were obliged to defend their exchange rates and thus had to print currency to buy dollars.

The United States was running a balance of payments deficit (more money was exported than imported) since the 1950s, which made U.S. official gold reserves decline—foreign central banks redeemed part of the imported dollars at the Fed. A tipping point was reached in 1960 when America’s external dollar liabilities exceeded its monetary gold holdings, prompting global concern regarding convertibility.


​

Chart 1. Instead of devaluing the dollar, which would harm the dollar’s power, the U.S. began selling of its gold, slashing their holdings from 20,312 tonnes in 1957 to 9,679 tonnes in 1968.

The Increase of France’s Gold Reserves at the Fed​

In the decade from 1958 through 1968, France experienced strong economic growth and had a balance of payments surplus, generating an increase of its international reserves. In 1961, Rueff, as well as other advisors to De Gaulle, theorized that Bretton Woods couldn’t survive because central banks eventually would be unwilling to hoard dollars as the U.S. was running out of gold. The United States would be forced to either devalue the dollar against gold or suspend gold convertibility.

De Gaulle and his team painfully recalled what happened in 1931 when the U.K. devalued sterling against gold in a similar fashion, causing the Banque de France (BdF) to suffer a loss of 2.35 billion French francs, twice the size of its capital. The French Treasury (taxpayer) had to step in to bail out BdF.

France became more reluctant to accumulate dollars despite the interest dollar holders earned.

​

Chart 2. In 1960, France’s gold reserves were evenly distributed between the vaults of the Fed in New York, the Bank of England in London, and BdF in Paris, a situation then considered optimal.

By November 1961, after the dollar gold price had briefly spiked in London, Fed President Alfred Hayes presented a plan at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Bazel, Switzerland, to jointly stabilize the price of gold in the free market (Bordo et al. 2017). European central banks assented to form a “Gold Pool” with the U.S. to buy and sell gold in the London Bullion Market with the objective of keeping the price at $35 dollars. France accepted to join on the condition the U.S. would fix its balance of payments deficit (Avaro, 2022).

​

De Gaulle and John F. Kennedy in Paris, 1961. Source: John Fitzgerald Kennedy Library, Boston.

Even as France had pledged to cooperate with the Pool’s operations in London, BdF converted newly acquired dollars into gold at the Fed in New York. Consequently, its gold holdings in New York grew relative to those in London and Paris.

France Repatriates Its Gold​

De Gaulle opined that American imperialism supported its capital export. In January 1963, he told his spokesperson:


For the General, gold was also a tool to push back on America’s quest for domination, in which the dollar played a key role. Not long after, in March 1963, De Gaulle began to worry about the geography of the French gold and demanded that all of it was to be repatriated to Paris (Avaro, 2022). Any gold held abroad could be used as leverage against France.

Staff of BdF advised against repatriations, considering the costs of transportation and insurance. In a compromise, the secret operation “Vide-Gousset” was launched in September 1963 to repatriate 400 tonnes of gold from New York (Avaro, 2022; Bruneel, 2012).

Initially, transfers from New York were made by sea, as it was difficult to ensure transport by air. Involving the French Navy was considered, but that would have blown the operation’s cover. Instead, BdF used ocean liners from the Compagnie Générale Transatlantique, capable of shipping 25 tonnes at a pace of two trips per month. Notably, not all gold repatriated went to Paris, some went to a BIS account at the Bank of England (BOE). It’s possible that BdF had engaged with the BIS in location swaps.

​

Flandre, Compagnie Générale Transatlantique. Source: Wikimedia.

De Gaulle’s distrust of the U.S. for safekeeping the French gold went hand in hand with America’s ongoing balance of payments deficit. Great Britain, which De Gaulle viewed as an extension of the U.S., was experiencing a balance of payments deficit, too. Before the dollar, the pound sterling came under attack by speculators in 1964.

​

Chart 3. Sterling exchange rate. Source: Sterling in Crisis: 1964-1967.

With pound sterling on the brink of devaluing, a dollar degradation became even more likely. From evaluating the finances of both America and Britain, the French took the decision to increase dollar conversion, accelerate repatriating gold from New York, and repatriate gold from London as well. The Banque de France was able to charter passenger planes from Air France to airlift gold from London to Paris starting in December 1964 (Bruneel, 2012).

The communication plan was to first announce one uncommon conversion of dollars; then, a French official would voice concerns regarding international monetary problems and demand America to reform. As planned, BdF publicly announced a conversion of $300 million dollars into gold (267 tonnes) in January 1965, which was followed by the General’s infamous press conference on February 4 at the Élysée Palace, where he advocated for a return to the gold standard. From the De Gaulle:


The supreme law, the golden rule that should be reapplied to international economic relationships, is an obligation to settle the balance of payments between one monetary zone and the next through deliveries and withdrawals of precious metals.
Click to expand...

Right after his speech, De Gaulle suggested his colleagues send a “Colbert” missile cruiser to New York and pick up French gold in size. His Minister of Finance convinced him to give up on this idea as it could damage diplomatic ties inadvertently (Avaro, 2022).

The central bank of France proceeded with more dollar conversions and scheduled passenger and then cargo planes from Air France, capable of carrying roughly 30 tonnes each, to fly between New York and Paris in addition to the ocean liners. Repatriations were covered by the media at the time, but the size and details of the operations were unknown, as far as is disclosed in newspaper archives (source, source).

​

Chart 4. Distribution of France’s monetary gold (in millions of dollars valued at $35/ounce). The red bar represents the day of De Gaulle’s speech on the return to the gold standard. “Affaire 18” was the code name for repatriations from New York by sea, “Affaire 19” and “Affaire 20” were repatriations by air from London and New York, respectively. Source: A Gold Battle? De Gaulle and the Dollar Hegemony during the Bretton Woods era.

Within a year, nearly all of France’s gold was brought home. Though, as new dollars were acquired, the operation of Vide-Gousset expanded. In 1965 and 1966, no less than 94 air flights were organized, which allowed the repatriation of 1,175 tonnes of gold from London. A total of 1,638 tonnes were recovered from the U.S., divided over 24 boat trips and 35 air flights. In aggregate, 3,313 tonnes were repatriated, according to Honorary Director General of the Banque de France, Didier Bruneel, in “The Secrets of Gold” (Les Secrets de l'Or).

​

Main vault room of the Banque de France in Paris, date unknown. Source: BdF.

The Collapse of the Gold Pool and Dollar Devaluation​

As imbalances in the global financial system kept growing, France saw no other option but to drop out of the London Gold Pool in June 1967. Later that year, the U.K. was forced to devalue pound sterling, and markets began eying the dollar next.

Slowly but surely, things started getting worse, and the Pool was confronted with substantial losses. From March 8 through 14, 1968, the gold syndicate had to sell almost 1,000 tonnes of gold to cap the dollar price of gold. “U.S. air force planes rushed more and more Fort Knox gold to London, and so much piled up in the Bank of England’s weighing room that the floor collapsed,” writes Timothy Green in “The New World of Gold.”

On March 15, 1968, the U.S. ordered the London Bullion Market to be closed for two weeks, and the Pool’s operations were terminated. Thereafter, a two-tiered gold system emerged: the price of gold was allowed to float in the free market, but the official gold price was unaltered at 35$ dollar. Private entities could trade gold at the free market price, and central banks could transact among each at the official price while not being allowed to sell in the free market. Of course, no central bank would sell gold to another central bank for $35 dollars, knowing the actual price was higher.

Ironically, the French franc came under pressure later in 1968, and BdF sold gold chiefly to defend its currency, as it had converted most of its dollars (see chart 1). De Gaulle's successor, Georges Pompidou, devalued the franc in 1969.

Although it was still possible for European central banks to convert dollars into gold at the Fed under the two-tier system, the Americans would intimidate or blackmail them not to. Finally, President Nixon closed the gold window on August 15, 1971, due to requests by France and Great Britain to exchange dollars for precious metals.

Bretton Woods de facto ended in 1968, but it stumbled on until 1971. Aside from formal changes in the IMF’s Articles of Agreement that were implemented down the line, the era of floating exchange rates began in 1971.

Due to raging inflation in the 1970s, the gold price went up from $35 dollars per ounce in 1968 to $800 in 1980. That’s an increase in the dollar price of gold of 2,200% or a dollar devaluation of 96%, whichever way one prefers to look at it.

France not only accurately predicted the devaluation of the greenback against gold, but it also acted appropriately by converting as much dollars as possible when it could. Repatriating the gold was not only to pressure America to reform but also to prevent uncomfortable outcomes. And virtually all French monetary gold is still stored in La Souterraine, the BdF’s vault in Paris.

France Has Once Again Positioned Itself for a Gold Bull Market​

In 2018, BdF’s Second Deputy Governor, Sylvie Goulard, published a remarkable article in the Alchemist: “Banque de France and Gold: Past and Future.” First, Goulard reminds her readers of the fact that Paris was an important gold trading hub next to London and New York during the classical gold standard in the 19th century. She continues by stating that “the financial crisis [in 2008] acted as a wake-up call for gold,” which “proved to be an opportunity for gold and for the Banque de France.”

This “wake-up call” prompted the Banque de France to upgrade all its monetary gold to current industry standards between 2009 and 2018, making sure all bars can be deployed in wholesale markets if needed.

​

LBMA Good Delivery bars. Source: BoE.

Additionally, La Souterraine has been renovated: the floors have been strengthened to support heavy forklift trucks, new vault compartments in different sizes have been added for storing single bars or sealed pallets, there are strong rooms for handling, transportation, and auditing, and a modern IT system is integrated.

In addition to storing France’s monetary gold, BdF offers custody services and trading solutions (spot and swap) for institutional clients and, with the aim of conquering market share from London. Goulard mentions, “In 2012, the Banque de France began to extend its range of gold services to reserve managers.” What she didn’t mention was that France repatriated another 221 tonnes from London around 2015.

After decades of gold demonetization attempts by the U.S., the Great Financial Crisis has revived gold’s role in the international financial system as a reserve asset with no counterparty risk. The price is going up, and more and more central banks are buying gold (and more of it).

Meanwhile, there is a trend of nations repatriating gold, this year, gold has overtaken the euro to become the world’s second-largest reserve currency, while the East is increasingly parting with the dollar as a trade and reserve currency.

My assessment is that the French have once again correctly anticipated developments in the gold market.


jog on
duc
 
I showed your reply to my posting of a recent article from kitco.com to a friend and she suggested you try Anusol.

gg
 
Could be in the silver thread, but currently silver is increasingly being monitised again:


On September 27, 2024, the Wall Street Journal published an article Why Silver Is Having A Golden Moment in which it profiles the global shortage of silver and the current run higher in the price of silver.

The article contains the following quote regarding the amount of silver that is available on exchanges to meet market demand:
“For now, there is still plenty of silver stacked away in vaults to cushion deficits. There was about 15 months of annual mined silver supply stored in London and exchange-registered vaults at the end of 2023, according to a report from the Silver Institute. But those inventories have dwindled about 26% over the past two years.”

(Non-WSJ subscribers can see the article here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/why-silver-is-having-a-golden-moment/ar-AA1rj9Lq )

What is misleading is the statement “For now, there is still plenty of silver stacked away in vaults to cushion deficits. There was about 15 months of annual mined silver supply stored in London and exchange-registered vaults at the end of 2023…”.

The WSJ Omits To Note That Not All Vaulted Silver Is Available To Market​

Looking at current data of silver stored in London, New York, and Shanghai vaults, we find that a total 1.228 billion (B) oz. of silver in major exchange vault storage.

The Silver Institute gives total estimated physical silver demand in 2024 of 1.269B oz. when Exchange Traded Product demand (i.e. investment ETF demand for vaulted silver) is included.

However, of the 1.228B oz. stored in London, New York, and Shanghai exchange vaults, not all is available to market.
Looking at NY COMEX exchange vaults, only 70.86M oz. or 23% of total vault stock is listed as ‘Registered’ and thus available to market. Of the the ‘Eligible’ vault stock of 236M oz., investors and users of silver store silver in NY vaults and an unknown amount could be converted to ‘Registered’ in the future.

​
Figure 1 - NY COMEX Depository Vault Silver Stocks; source: GoldChartsRUS.com

Further, in this September 20, 2024 article, this Substack observed that given the intense global shortage of silver this year estimated at 265 million (M) oz. in a global 1,484M oz. annual global market and the fact that the London vault stock of silver has not drawn-down appreciably since 2022 there may be very little of the 843M oz. in London vaults available to market.

London vault silver available to market may be as little as 32M oz. of silver, or less - the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) isn’t saying - but the London vault data does not speak of abundant liquidity.

The Key Metric Is How Much Silver Is Actually Available To Market​

Optimistically assuming that, similar to the NY COMEX vaults, 23% of the total global vault stock of silver in major exchange vaults is available to market then only 282M oz. is available translating to 3 months of this vaulted silver, and not 15 months as stated by the WSJ, is available to “cushion deficits”.
This is a very, very different picture.

The Shanghai Silver Price Premium Continues To Increase​

The latest data on Shanghai silver prices shows that the premium for silver in China continues to snap back increasing now to 9.82% vs New York.

​
Figure 2 - Shanghai Gold Exchange Silver Price Premium vs New York; source: GoldChartsRUS.com

Numerous indicators including price premia and elevated lease rates to borrow silver tells us there is not, in reality, “plenty of silver stacked away in vaults to cushion deficits” as not all of that silver is available to market.​


Remember when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market, they were using futures contracts, which allowed the exchange to change the rules (amount of margin required) and which eventually led to their having to puke their position.

Contrast that to Warren Buffett who stockpiled physical silver. Buffett was forced to sell by political pressure.

This time we have lots of little guys backed by Sovereign powers, who could give a **** about the US.

jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
Contrast that to Warren Buffett who stockpiled physical silver. Buffett was forced to sell by political pressure.
Click to expand...
see what happens when you tell somebody ( whether it is gold , silver , wheat .... )

a secretive squirrel eats better than a normal one
 
Thanks for the Gold chart in $AUD @Sean K .

One of Trump's advisors interviewed last week said that if elected he will be committed to a strong $USD. While this may constrain the POG it bodes well for the POG in $AUD. At one stage there the Aussie had me a bit concerned but it seems to have retraced somewhat.



gg
 
greggles said:
What do others think of ETFs like GDX: VanEck Gold Miners ETF? Surely there is more money to be made by backing large, established gold miners whose profits look set to soar as a result of the bullish gold price?
Click to expand...

Different risk:reward ratio.

Of course, if you knew with certainty that gold was going to rally hugely and quickly to a sustained new higher level, then of course you'd be best off with some producer currently operating at a narrow margin or a small loss.
 
greggles said:
What do others think of ETFs like GDX: VanEck Gold Miners ETF? Surely there is more money to be made by backing large, established gold miners whose profits look set to soar as a result of the bullish gold price?
Click to expand...
GDX has clearly got some catching up to do compared to the GLD market but it also has some overhead resistance to push through. GLD has been the stronger market since August 2020.

 
greggles said:
What do others think of ETFs like GDX: VanEck Gold Miners ETF? Surely there is more money to be made by backing large, established gold miners whose profits look set to soar as a result of the bullish gold price?
Click to expand...

I'll buy some more on a pullback, but generally happy with what I've got.

Have bought chunks in Aug 22, Feb 23, Jan 24, Mar 24. With a couple of crappy DRPs.
 
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