Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[milky]

while there is two wars going on gold will keep rising

 

[Sean K]

This AUD gold price chart is interesting. Not sure how it transforms in TA with the effect of the USD price and AUD exchange, but on the surface of it that's about a 300 + target.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just an update on Gold's fall below $USD 2500 and it's first line of support. I have not heard of any recent buyers who have sold on this retracement but some medium term holders may have taken profits.

Then there are those such as the Chinese Emperor and the Chinese cousins who by withdrawing from buying hope for a lower price. Support is between $2440 and $2480, and this fall today may give those bulls who missed the buy below $2500 to enter, a chance to get set for consolidation in this area.




gg

 

[Sdajii]

This AUD gold price chart is interesting. Not sure how it transforms in TA with the effect of the USD price and AUD exchange, but on the surface of it that's about a 300 + target.

View attachment 182936

No one other than a few Australians looks at gold in AUD, so any patterns which show up are largely coincidental and not likely to have any impact. I'm not sure how valid a C&H that is anyway - the cup is reasonably cup like but the handle hasn't really formed properly.

If you do consider it valid it would give a TA target of around US$2,750 assuming the exchange rate remains similar. That's probably not unlikely in the medium term (there's a very large C&H in USD with a target of around US$3,000). Half way between where we are now and that target is a round figure right in between which would make sense for a consolidation area. So even if it's all just pure coincidence, you might see your AUD C&H play out as you expect.

Gold is looking very strong this year either way. Anyone can see inflation is a huge problem all around the world even if the American democrats pretend it's not an issue in the USA, and the world is a pretty freaky place at the moment with plenty of potential turds likely to hit fans, and gold is an obvious safe haven - you'll probably do well with bullish predictions about gold.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

No one other than a few Australians looks at gold in AUD, so any patterns which show up are largely coincidental and not likely to have any impact. I'm not sure how valid a C&H that is anyway - the cup is reasonably cup like but the handle hasn't really formed properly.

If you do consider it valid it would give a TA target of around US$2,750 assuming the exchange rate remains similar. That's probably not unlikely in the medium term (there's a very large C&H in USD with a target of around US$3,000). Half way between where we are now and that target is a round figure right in between which would make sense for a consolidation area. So even if it's all just pure coincidence, you might see your AUD C&H play out as you expect.

Gold is looking very strong this year either way. Anyone can see inflation is a huge problem all around the world even if the American democrats pretend it's not an issue in the USA, and the world is a pretty freaky place at the moment with plenty of potential turds likely to hit fans, and gold is an obvious safe haven - you'll probably do well with bullish predictions about gold.

While generally agreeing with you @Sdajii I must admit that for me the recent gain in the $AUD has had me somewhat fixated on the exchange rate.

I have a bit of cash money and US stocks, as well as Gold, quoted in $USD and recent gains show a standstill in $AUD.

I’ve never traded Forex which is the obvious answer as a hedge in this environment.

gg

 

[ducati916]

The price-setting system of selling promissory notes, that do not require specific vaulted bars allocated to buyers, in the world’s largest gold and silver cash/spot immediate ownership market in London can only continue as long as the holders of those promissory notes are content with paper and do not ask for bar delivery.

The currency printers at the UK’s central bank, the Bank of England, have run this price setting scheme since 1987 and current data and indicators are showing market supply stress in both the gold and silver markets.

As the demand for metal delivery grows, the immense leverage of claims for metal vs actual vaulted available metal translates to the London market moving toward a sudden failure of its price setting / price control scheme through default by the issuers of these promissory gold and silver cash/spot claims.

Overview of London Gold Market Stress​

With global physical gold demand in Q2 2024 reported at an all-time high and Q2 2024 Over-The-Counter (OTC) physical gold bar delivery demand in London running now at a multi-decade high of 329 tonnes, let’s look at the status of the London leveraged gold market.

The LBMA gives daily net-settled gold clearing volume of 17 million (M) oz. per day in London.

The LBMA also states in their 2011 Loco London Liquidity Survey that daily trading turnover or volume is estimated at 10x the daily net-settled clearing volume giving the latest daily gold trading volume of 170M oz. per day.

Assuming 90% of daily trading in London is in the cash/spot market, total open interest claims of 2x daily trading volume translates to claims for 306M oz. or 9,517 tonnes of cash/spot gold in London.

Assuming total open interest claims of 3x daily trading volume translates to claims for 459M oz. or 14,276 tonnes of spot market gold in London.

Current vault holdings in London not claimed by the BoE or ETFs is 1,304 tonnes (see Figure 1 below).

Note that this 1,304 tonne amount or ‘float’ includes all gold held in London vaults not claimed by the BoE or ETFs and that much of this 1,304 tonne float is tightly held and not available to market.

Compare the 1,304 tonnes of gold float to the 329 tonnes withdrawn from the London OTC market in Q2 2024.

​

Figure 1; LBMA London Vault Gold Holdings

The draw rate of gold in the London OTC market vs the gold float indicates that some gold must be provided from other sources to allow delivery.

A further indicator that the increasing draw of bars from the London OTC market since 2022 is inducing market stress is that short-term lease rates, that reflect the ability of bullion banks (that have sold cash/spot claims) to borrow gold to make delivery when demanded, has also been elevated since 2022 to levels seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis.

​

Figure 2; Gold Market Implied Lease Rates

Assuming the low estimate of 9,517 tonnes of gold claims in the London cash/spot market and the fact that we can see the OTC physical gold draw intensifying since 2022, at some point we will see available gold limited and default by parties that have sold paper gold into the London market.

The global gold market will then flip to supply-demand price discovery, unsatiated by paper metal offerings, and much higher prices.

Overview of London Silver Market Stress​

The global silver market in 2024 is seeing an annual silver supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year.

The LBMA gives daily net-settled silver clearing volume of 236 million (M) oz. per day in London.

Using the 2011 Loco London Liquidity Survey multiplier of total turnover or trading volume of 10x the daily net-settled clearing volume giving the latest daily silver trading volume of 2.36 Billion (B) oz. per day in London.

Assuming 90% of daily silver trading is in the cash/spot market and assuming total open interest claims of 2x daily trading volume translates to claims for 4.248B oz. or 132,130 tonnes of spot market silver in London.

Assuming total open interest claims of 3x daily trading volume translates to claims for 6.372B oz. or 198,195 tonnes of spot market silver in London.

Current vault silver holdings in London not claimed by ETFs is 10,440 tonnes (see Figure 3 below) - not much in comparison to the above estimated market claims in the London silver cash/spot market.

​

Figure 3; London Vault Silver Holdings

Similar to gold, we can see elevated short-term silver lease rates in the silver market indicating elevated silver supply stress.

​

Figure 4; Silver Market Implied Lease Rates

In summary, because of the leveraged paper market claims for both gold and silver in the London market and the growing global shortage of gold and silver, both of these metals are trending toward default on the London spot/cash market.

Default in one metal will likely trip to physical supply-demand pricing in both metals - a rapid re-pricing to much higher levels as the decades of faux paper metal supply is resolved.

Best regards,

David Jensen

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

So something that I'll need to look into more deeply as I was of the opinion that the oil market was x15 the size of the gold market:


We repeatedly hear from analysts and financial institutions that the gold market is small and of little significance to global financial markets.

Let’s have a look at whether that claim is true.

This prior post shows that, using the LBMA’s latest data, London’s daily average gold trading total volume is valued at $425 billion (B) of which the daily cash/spot (immediate physical bar ownership) gold trading volume is valued at $382B.

On a yearly basis, London’s gold cash/spot market trading volume is $95.5 trillion (T).

Gold vs Oil’s Daily Trading Volume​

It is said that oil is by far the largest value and highest volume physically traded asset globally. Let’s look at the numbers.

Daily oil spot/cash trading amounts to 40M barrels (bbl) per day giving it a global daily cash/spot trading volume of $3B per day compared to gold’s cash/spot $382B daily trading volume in London.

By far, the largest oil futures market globally is the NY COMEX market and it is averaging a trading volume of approximately 900M bbl per day. That yields daily oil futures oil trading volume of $67.5B on the NY COMEX.

Oil sees daily total market (NY futures + global cash/spot) daily trading volumes averaging $70.5B compared to London’s total gold market daily trading volume that averages $425B per day.

Gold vs US Bond Market Daily Trading Volume​

Looking at the US bond market of which Treasuries are the largest and most liquid market, daily US Treasury bond market trading volume averaged $592B per day in 2022. London’s daily gold trade compares at $425B.

Other US bond (fixed income) average daily trading volumes are:

US investment grade bonds: $26B

Municipal bonds: $14.1B

Agency Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS): $240B

Historical Context of Gold’s Competition With Bonds​

From 1971 (when President Nixon temporarily defaulted, they said, on the US Dollar’s fixed convertibility into gold) until 1980, the price of gold ran 21x higher.

US bonds were termed ‘certificates of confiscation’ in 1980 as loose central bank monetary policy drove goods price inflation to 13.5% seeing the Fed Funds interest rates peak at 22% in December 1980.

The Fed Funds Rate was forced 8.5% higher than the Fed’s overnight interest rate to draw investors out of gold (and silver) and back into fiat currency debt instruments such as Treasuries as investors had lost confidence in the dollar maintaining its buying power.

​

Figure 1; Fed Funds Effective Rate

In this context of gold limiting the ability of central banks to juice financial markets by drawing investors out of stocks and bonds and enforcing government fiscal discipline by forcing interest rates higher, we can see why financial institutions and their operatives and governments themselves wish to minimize the perception of gold as a financial instrument and viable form of investment.

Last week, with US equities, home prices, and food prices at or near all-time highs, Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole announced that the Fed needs to start lowering rates.

We can start to see why physical gold is being stripped from London’s OTC vaults at a record pace.

Demand for physical metal is kryptonite to an unbacked promissory note pricing system as is operated in London.

London’s highly geared paper pricing scheme for gold and silver is in trouble.

Best regards,

David Jensen

jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

Apparently, us retail investors think gold is a good thing now.

I'll start skimming when the Uber drivers start recommending gold.




Heightened expectations of lower global interest rates have sparked a rush into gold by Australian investors, as the price of the yellow metal tests new records.

Though conditions have been ideal for gold throughout 2024 so far, retail investors did not begin to move into gold until May, when inflows for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) turned positive – and they have been rising ever since.

Marc Jocum, investment strategist at Australia’s largest gold ETF, the GlobalX Gold ETF – which is valued at more than $3.2bn, says: “The global pattern has been repeated in our market, the inflows have picked up in the last few months and it is starting to accelerate now.”

Investment in gold through ETFs is the most easily tracked activity in gold. In Australia, there are two streams of inflows – investor money going into bullion-backed ETFs, and also into funds that buy a selection of listed gold miners.

The biggest area is bullion-based ETFs, where investors have combined with gold-buying central banks and China-based speculators to push gold prices higher. The arrival of China buyers in the gold market follows a move away from buying US Treasuries.

Gold is currently trading near US$2500 ($3700).

Gold buyers – institutional or private – all have one thing in common, they are betting that a looming cut in US rates will drive gold price higher.

Traditionally, declining US rates and a declining US dollar have been good news for gold.

The latest confirmation from US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, that US rates are set to be cut in the months ahead suggest the gold rally has further to run.

Investors are attracted to ETFs, which offer direct links with physical gold held in vaults. The GlobalX Gold ETF is linked with physical gold bullion held in London vaults run by JPMorgan Chase Bank – the ETFs can be redeemed for bullion.

Similarly, another major player with a listed product is the Perth Mint PM Gold fund, which is linked to gold bullion held at the Perth Mint and offers investors a guarantee from the state government of Western Australia.

For investors who wish to take a wider look at gold investing through holdings in listed mining companies, there is also a range of ETFs, including the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF and the Betashares Global Gold Miners ETF.

 

[Sdajii]

Apparently, us retail investors think gold is a good thing now.

I'll start skimming when the Uber drivers start recommending gold.

View attachment 183293


Heightened expectations of lower global interest rates have sparked a rush into gold by Australian investors, as the price of the yellow metal tests new records.

Though conditions have been ideal for gold throughout 2024 so far, retail investors did not begin to move into gold until May, when inflows for Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) turned positive – and they have been rising ever since.

Marc Jocum, investment strategist at Australia’s largest gold ETF, the GlobalX Gold ETF – which is valued at more than $3.2bn, says: “The global pattern has been repeated in our market, the inflows have picked up in the last few months and it is starting to accelerate now.”

Investment in gold through ETFs is the most easily tracked activity in gold. In Australia, there are two streams of inflows – investor money going into bullion-backed ETFs, and also into funds that buy a selection of listed gold miners.

The biggest area is bullion-based ETFs, where investors have combined with gold-buying central banks and China-based speculators to push gold prices higher. The arrival of China buyers in the gold market follows a move away from buying US Treasuries.

Gold is currently trading near US$2500 ($3700).

Gold buyers – institutional or private – all have one thing in common, they are betting that a looming cut in US rates will drive gold price higher.

Traditionally, declining US rates and a declining US dollar have been good news for gold.

The latest confirmation from US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, that US rates are set to be cut in the months ahead suggest the gold rally has further to run.

Investors are attracted to ETFs, which offer direct links with physical gold held in vaults. The GlobalX Gold ETF is linked with physical gold bullion held in London vaults run by JPMorgan Chase Bank – the ETFs can be redeemed for bullion.

Similarly, another major player with a listed product is the Perth Mint PM Gold fund, which is linked to gold bullion held at the Perth Mint and offers investors a guarantee from the state government of Western Australia.

For investors who wish to take a wider look at gold investing through holdings in listed mining companies, there is also a range of ETFs, including the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF and the Betashares Global Gold Miners ETF.

When the guy shining your shoes gives you a tip on a particular stock, yep, it's time to sell, but when it comes to something as large as a commodity like gold, I'm not sure it applies. Certainly in China, the equivalent of every Uber driver and shoe shiner has been raving about gold for quite some time now and that hasn't been a sell trigger. I have friends in South East Asia working for about AU$200 per month, typical regular folk, and they consider gold a fantastic investment they wish they could get into (and if they had any money to spend, they'd go buy physical gold and almost literally store it under their pillow).

Every man and his dog was raving about Bitcoin years back when it was around US$10,000.

I'm seeing gold going to around US$3,000 within the next year or two or so and likely higher after that (well, definitely higher, it's just a question of when).

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

When the guy shining your shoes gives you a tip on a particular stock, yep, it's time to sell, but when it comes to something as large as a commodity like gold, I'm not sure it applies. Certainly in China, the equivalent of every Uber driver and shoe shiner has been raving about gold for quite some time now and that hasn't been a sell trigger. I have friends in South East Asia working for about AU$200 per month, typical regular folk, and they consider gold a fantastic investment they wish they could get into (and if they had any money to spend, they'd go buy physical gold and almost literally store it under their pillow).

Every man and his dog was raving about Bitcoin years back when it was around US$10,000.

I'm seeing gold going to around US$3,000 within the next year or two or so and likely higher after that (well, definitely higher, it's just a question of when).

I must admit that I'm getting the same feeling from reading Australian and American financial news, broker and other outlets. " gold is guaranteed to go to $3000 by December" used only be uttered by gold traders in places such as this thread. Now everyone seems to be getting in on the act.

My present holdings are in Gold, not in miners, explorers nor allied companies. The really big investors in Gold are central banks mainly in the BRICS nations led by China, the USSR ( sorry Russia ) and large nations such as India. There is no way that they will let the POG run away to make it more expensive for them to displace the US dollar as the de facto trading currency. Equally the US have their own motives in regard to the POG.

So yes, once the guy running the lift starts discussing Gold and BRICS it may be time to sit back. I'm not selling and had thought of buying more but will only do so opportunistically, if at all. I'm well exposed to Gold as it is in my SMSF and privately.

There is no reason why Gold won't retrace below $2500, it only becomes a problem if I needed to sell. I'll let my heirs worry about that or consider it if I'm forced to go in to a nursing home to spend it as this guy famously said when asked about winning lotto.



gg

 

[Sean K]

While I do hope the psychological $2500 level holds, I think the true support is a little lower around $2475. The weekly close chart is probably a bit lower.

While I'd also like the price to go up in a linear fashion to the Moon, we've only had that the nice choppy consolidation between $2300-2400 which on the 6 month chart looks like a lot of time but on the 5 yearly it's a blip. Maybe that pause was enough for the next leg up that we're currently in since breaking out of the chop.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It also looks as if the USD/AUD has found a bottom at $USD1.000 = $AUD1.471. @Sean K

This will cushion any losses to Aussie Gold holders should it rise back up towards $AUD1.500+. I'm still a bit down on Gold I bought 3 w ago at a much lower $USD price.

Anyways, I'm not whinging, its a risk with buying Gold in $AUD that I was well aware of. Having said that, with the $USD looking as if it may rise against world currencies, this may not be a bad time to play that currency risk with Gold.

Talk among the Talkerati is that $USD v Gold is a coming battle.

I do enjoy living in interesting times. Some knee bones are not attached to thigh bones.

gg

 

[rcw1]

Good morning gold believers,
An article which appeared in yesterday's online AFR:

Why a surging gold price could signal ‘more sinister’ times ahead​

Alex GluyasMarkets reporter
Aug 28, 2024 – 3.25pm

The latest surge in the gold price to fresh highs, against a backdrop of rallying equities and bonds, is said to have created a dangerous cocktail for complacent financial markets. The warning from ING follows gold’s climb to more than $US2500 an ounce this week after US Federal Reserve chairman

Jerome Powell confirmed the time to start cutting interest rates had arrived. The promise of some rate relief in the world’s largest economy unleashed a rally across equity and bond markets, sending Bloomberg’s benchmark for the 60:40 portfolio (60 per cent stocks, 40 per cent bonds) to a record.

Markets continue to price in a goldilocks scenario where inflation remains contained, and the Fed eases interest rates just enough to prevent a significant rise in the jobless rate and a US recession.
And while that has supercharged a rally in the sharemarket, it has also boosted gold, long considered a store of value, from a decline in Treasury yields and the US dollar. But strategists say investors need to look further into what’s really driving gold prices higher.

“Everything is up, that can’t last,” said ING’s regional head of Americas research, Padhraic Garvey, in a report to clients. “A new high in the gold price, in hindsight, may be looked back as a warning sign that we missed. The rise in the gold price against that backdrop could well be a precursor for more sinister times on financial markets where prices instead go down.” While bubbling geopolitical tension around the world has only added fuel to gold’s safe-haven appeal, Mr Garvey pointed to a “quiet trade” in the background where countries are building their gold reserves.
While that has been a popular move in countries suffering high inflation such as Turkey and Argentina, ING noted that China and Russia also had been increasing their gold holdings while reducing their US dollar exposure.

Covert buying​

The bank drew comparisons to when Russia liquidated the bulk of its Treasury holdings before invading Ukraine.

“Both [China and Russia] have an interest in covertly doing whatever might undermine the dollar, and at the margin this is one,” Mr Garvey said. “US Treasuries are still well demanded, but we need to continue to monitor this space.”

China’s central bank re-directed its vast foreign exchange reserves away from US Treasuries and into gold as part of a broader strategy to reduce its dependence on the greenback as a reserve currency.
That was a key driver behind gold’s surge earlier this year, despite markets paring rate cuts by the Fed, which boosted the US dollar. The precious metal and the greenback typically have an inverse relationship. “There’s been a clear shift in the way China manages its reserves, and it’s been primarily driven by de-dollarisation,” said senior commodity strategist at ANZ Daniel Hynes.
“China’s continued push to have a financial system that is less reliant on the US dollar has already been seen through its efforts to incorporate renminbi in more transactions, but in terms of its reserves, that strong accumulation of gold has been a key benefit of this de-dollarisation strategy.”
The US has historically used the financial system to exert its influence on the world, which runs contrary to China’s interests, particularly if President Xi Jinping follows through with his desire to unify Taiwan with the mainland.

The US maintaining its leverage over China is also particularly important given the possibility of another trade war should Donald Trump return to the White House as president.
“If you look at what happened with Russia after it invaded Ukraine, accounts and assets got frozen, and they were taken out of SWIFT [the banking system],” said Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com. “China doesn’t want to be exposed to that level of risk where if anything goes wrong in its relationship with the US, they can’t access their assets.”

Gold is good. Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[mullokintyre]

Good morning gold believers,
An article which appeared in yesterday's online AFR:

Why a surging gold price could signal ‘more sinister’ times ahead​

View attachment 183342
Alex GluyasMarkets reporter
Aug 28, 2024 – 3.25pm

The latest surge in the gold price to fresh highs, against a backdrop of rallying equities and bonds, is said to have created a dangerous cocktail for complacent financial markets. The warning from ING follows gold’s climb to more than $US2500 an ounce this week after US Federal Reserve chairman

Jerome Powell confirmed the time to start cutting interest rates had arrived. The promise of some rate relief in the world’s largest economy unleashed a rally across equity and bond markets, sending Bloomberg’s benchmark for the 60:40 portfolio (60 per cent stocks, 40 per cent bonds) to a record.

Markets continue to price in a goldilocks scenario where inflation remains contained, and the Fed eases interest rates just enough to prevent a significant rise in the jobless rate and a US recession.
And while that has supercharged a rally in the sharemarket, it has also boosted gold, long considered a store of value, from a decline in Treasury yields and the US dollar. But strategists say investors need to look further into what’s really driving gold prices higher.

“Everything is up, that can’t last,” said ING’s regional head of Americas research, Padhraic Garvey, in a report to clients. “A new high in the gold price, in hindsight, may be looked back as a warning sign that we missed. The rise in the gold price against that backdrop could well be a precursor for more sinister times on financial markets where prices instead go down.” While bubbling geopolitical tension around the world has only added fuel to gold’s safe-haven appeal, Mr Garvey pointed to a “quiet trade” in the background where countries are building their gold reserves.
While that has been a popular move in countries suffering high inflation such as Turkey and Argentina, ING noted that China and Russia also had been increasing their gold holdings while reducing their US dollar exposure.

Covert buying​

The bank drew comparisons to when Russia liquidated the bulk of its Treasury holdings before invading Ukraine.

“Both [China and Russia] have an interest in covertly doing whatever might undermine the dollar, and at the margin this is one,” Mr Garvey said. “US Treasuries are still well demanded, but we need to continue to monitor this space.”

China’s central bank re-directed its vast foreign exchange reserves away from US Treasuries and into gold as part of a broader strategy to reduce its dependence on the greenback as a reserve currency.
That was a key driver behind gold’s surge earlier this year, despite markets paring rate cuts by the Fed, which boosted the US dollar. The precious metal and the greenback typically have an inverse relationship. “There’s been a clear shift in the way China manages its reserves, and it’s been primarily driven by de-dollarisation,” said senior commodity strategist at ANZ Daniel Hynes.
“China’s continued push to have a financial system that is less reliant on the US dollar has already been seen through its efforts to incorporate renminbi in more transactions, but in terms of its reserves, that strong accumulation of gold has been a key benefit of this de-dollarisation strategy.”
The US has historically used the financial system to exert its influence on the world, which runs contrary to China’s interests, particularly if President Xi Jinping follows through with his desire to unify Taiwan with the mainland.

The US maintaining its leverage over China is also particularly important given the possibility of another trade war should Donald Trump return to the White House as president.
“If you look at what happened with Russia after it invaded Ukraine, accounts and assets got frozen, and they were taken out of SWIFT [the banking system],” said Kyle Rodda, senior analyst at Capital.com. “China doesn’t want to be exposed to that level of risk where if anything goes wrong in its relationship with the US, they can’t access their assets.”

Gold is good. Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1

Another hint (as if any more were needed), that the fed reserve will be tacitly approving of the paper trade warriors forcing the price of PM's down in the market.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

From The Frisby Report
the USD index tends to go down during republican presidencies, and up during Democrat presidencies.
Depending on who you think is going to win in November, it might gve an historical indication as to where the index might be headed.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

From The Frisby Report
the USD index tends to go down during republican presidencies, and up during Democrat presidencies.
Depending on who you think is going to win in November, it might gve an historical indication as to where the index might be headed.
Mick
View attachment 183352

I should have pointed out that the article mentioned that the USD index goes in the opposite direction to the gold price during these events.
Mick

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I should have pointed out that the article mentioned that the USD index goes in the opposite direction to the gold price during these events.
Mick

Also, as we on this thread know there can be significant retracements to worry the overly optimistic. The Dow and NASDAQ have also been behaving “not true to type” since the semiconductors began their bull run just over a year ago.

Interesting times for the fundamentalists.

gg

 

[Sean K]

Someone doesn't like 2525. JPM (China) need to reset their bots to let it loose. But, maybe they haven't accumulated enough to cope with being frozen out of the international markets after they invade Taiwan.

Is there any point in putting up Jim's charts?

 

[Chipp]

Gold does best over the Xmas period and i suppose there might be some logic behind that with it being the time when many get married . But anyway for what it's worth in last decade Dec is the month where Gold shines brightest .

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Someone doesn't like 2525. JPM (China) need to reset their bots to let it loose. But, maybe they haven't accumulated enough to cope with being frozen out of the international markets after they invade Taiwan.

Is there any point in putting up Jim's charts?

I presume @Sean K that you refer to the Dec 24 futures chart which Jim Wyckoff uses. It is quite popular amongst other Gold commentators and it is actively traded.

I'm unsure as to when it rolls over ? to the next month or ? to the next quarter.

We'd also need to be sure that we are talking about apples and not oranges when quoting price. I'm pretty agnostic on whether we use spot or futures charts.

gg