Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[ducati916]

But gold carries a much broader message for markets:



The 4'th signal in 127yrs. Worth thinking about?

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

I had fun watching it hit new highs in the early hours of this morning, and was pleased when I woke up to see that it had comfortably closed above $2,500. Not to split hairs, but where did you see $2537? I didn't see it quite hit $2510. Are you talking about futures?
-----

Was the displayed gold price on the banner at finance.yahoo (us site ) this morning around 4am Qld time

This is what it gives now 5:20 pm



If i click on the gold link, i indeed get the future!


not sure if it would have been same this morning ..

So kind of mea culpa ,???

 

[qldfrog]

I had fun watching it hit new highs in the early hours of this morning, and was pleased when I woke up to see that it had comfortably closed above $2,500. Not to split hairs, but where did you see $2537? I didn't see it quite hit $2510. Are you talking about futures?
-----

Was the displayed gold price on the banner at finance.yahoo (us site ) this morning around 4am Qld time

This is what it gives now 5:20 pm
View attachment 182725


If i click on the gold link, i indeed get the future!
View attachment 182726

not sure if it would have been same this morning ..

So kind of mea culpa ,???

Notes that i have issues with the site as after i type my text, i got an error when posting, and a refresh wipes my entry
so the copy paste of above post.got caught a few times today

 

[Sean K]

View attachment 182715

But gold carries a much broader message for markets:

View attachment 182714

The 4'th signal in 127yrs. Worth thinking about?

jog on
duc

$30 in 1969 - $800 in 1980.
$280 in 2000 - $1870 in 2011.
$2500 in 2024 - ?? in 2035.

 

[divs4ever]

The WSJ had this page from back on 20/09/2022.
Has not aged well.
Mick
View attachment 182705

a lot of stuff in the WSJ doesn't age well , some even smells off before the ink is dry

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Notes that i have issues with the site as after i type my text, i got an error when posting, and a refresh wipes my entry
so the copy paste of above post.got caught a few times today

Thanks for the info @qldfrog . In fact that extraordinary "high" I saw a few weeks ago may have been via a rabbit hole I went down on Yahoo Finance . I use it a bit. It may be worthwhile letting Joe know next week of the problems you are having with posting. It sounds like the probs that Divsie @divs4ever and I were having this week just gone. I haven't put his @ asf tag name in to give him a break over the w/e.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

Ok Gold bigs, lets have a look at those gold companies that may or may not be in Australia, but who have a nice pile of cash that they have generated and are still generating.
I want to start looking at some cashed up companies that might go on the acquisition path.
PRU, WAF, have already made takeovers or strategic investments.
There may well be more, and I want to play on this.
Any good suggestions?
Mick

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Those gold bugs here on ASF would hope this week that the price of gold (POG) continues to rise having breached important resistance at $USD 2500. I see no reason why it should not. a separate question for those new to Gold is "should I buy it now?".

Gold closed for the weekend at $2507.70 which does not mean that it will open at that price. Some hours will pass until PMGOLD or some other Gold assets begin to trade after 10am so it is not guaranteed that the price to buy will be the recent closing price. Gold shares wile often rising with the POG do not always do so.

The Gold price is quoted in US dollars so currency fluctuations will affect how much one pays for or receives on buying or selling Gold. This also affects profits of course so looking at the POG in $AUD is important.

Many who trade assets using charts might say that waiting for a rise in price and then retracement to just above $2500 and then a move north would be the trigger for them to add more. As ASF is a discussion forum nobody should be giving advice which is available by a quick google or duckduck search.

I see no reason given the state of the world geopolitically, the accumulation of Gold by China and Indian Central Bank, the volatility in stock exchanges worldwide, why it should not either trade higher or consolidate moving sideways between $2500 and $2600 before again moving up towqards the next major resistance at $3000.

For newcomers to ASF, a good site to get up to speed on Gold is kitco.com a commercial commodity and crypto website or the World Gold Council whose pages can be found on a google or duckduck search. As always the little old deaf lady sitting on a bench outside Coles is probably as accurate in predicting the future as "experts" so I personally would not pay any money for advice on buying Gold.

I must have breakfast and wheel my cash barrow down to the bank to add to my account from my Breakdance Studio, ( Olympic, Beginners, Intermediate and Expert welcome ) which I collected over the weekend, to afford to buy some more Gold. It is getting expensive.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

From Nikkei Asia

TOKYO -- Central banks are diversifying away from the dollar and yuan while loading up their foreign exchange reserves with a "stateless currency," gold, in a nod to intensifying geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties.

The proportion of the U.S. currency in global foreign reserves has dropped significantly, from over 70% in the early 2000s. Currently, the dollar's share of foreign reserves held by central banks and governments worldwide sits at a historic low.
China's currency is also trending lower.


Mick

 

[Sean K]

Wykoff has support around 2500 now. This would be a good thing.

I'm looking forward to a 10% jump in gold soon. Is that out of the question?

 

[Sdajii]

Using non actual gold prices seems really popular around here lately!

Anyway, I'm not sure what the next move will be. The overall trend, of course, it up, but I'm seeing a resistance line with the recent/current all time high price sitting right on. I'm hoping we'll beat it and that line will become the new support, but if not we probably have a chance of a retrace. Not a particularly tragic one, and if it does happen it'll be a beautiful, easy trading opportunity (which is one reason it is perhaps unlikely).

A 10% increase? Absolutely. It's a question of when we'll see $2,750, not if. The C&H has a target price of around $3,000 and we may well simply see that play out. But of course, the world is insane, the market is usually irrational, and short-medium term anything could happen.

Interesting to see the chart play around with this resistance line at the moment, we should see which way it decides to go by the end of the week. I don't think the all time high stopping just above $2,500 is coincidence, it's right on the line.

 

[Sean K]

Using non actual gold prices seems really popular around here lately!

Taken from a real person's TA with some credibility.

 

[qldfrog]

Taken from a real person's TA with some credibility.

Typing "gold price " on your search engine will most often bring back a December or so future figure.
This is true @Sdajii .
But this very morning, i checked and yes, gold current price was above 2500 usd and when I checked slightly in red.
The chart comments are still valid

 

[ducati916]

Some history and why gold is again ascendant:

jog on
duc

 

[Sdajii]

Taken from a real person's TA with some credibility.

I'm not exactly arguing with the TA, but those are not actual gold prices. According to that chart, gold topped US$2,500 back in April (it didn't) and again multiple times in the months between then and when it actually did, for the first time, which was at the end of last week.

Futures prices will generally follow a similar pattern to actual prices, so the TA patterns will be similar, but the price difference is certainly quite relevant in a lot of contexts, especially if you're wanting to know when to buy or sell, or in looking at actual support and resistance levels - if you think a support or resistance level is even a few dollar out (your chart has it a lot more than that), you'll often mistakenly think it has broken or failed to break a level when it hasn't actually crossed it, if you ever look at the real prices.

As a clear example, your chart shows gold having hit $2,549, which if believed to be true, would mean a very exciting breakout above the resistance line shown in my chart which uses real gold prices. This could easily be interpreted as an "Oh my goodness, buy right now!" signal, when it reality, the resistance line has not been broken and could easily go the other way, with no confirmation signal showing yet. This thread has already demonstrated that some people do get futures and actual prices mixed up, so it's not a trivial distinction by any stretch.

 

[DrBourse]

I'm not exactly arguing with the TA, but those are not actual gold prices. According to that chart, gold topped US$2,500 back in April (it didn't) and again multiple times in the months between then and when it actually did, for the first time, which was at the end of last week.

Futures prices will generally follow a similar pattern to actual prices, so the TA patterns will be similar, but the price difference is certainly quite relevant in a lot of contexts, especially if you're wanting to know when to buy or sell, or in looking at actual support and resistance levels - if you think a support or resistance level is even a few dollar out (your chart has it a lot more than that), you'll often mistakenly think it has broken or failed to break a level when it hasn't actually crossed it, if you ever look at the real prices.

As a clear example, your chart shows gold having hit $2,549, which if believed to be true, would mean a very exciting breakout above the resistance line shown in my chart which uses real gold prices. This could easily be interpreted as an "Oh my goodness, buy right now!" signal, when it reality, the resistance line has not been broken and could easily go the other way, with no confirmation signal showing yet. This thread has already demonstrated that some people do get futures and actual prices mixed up, so it's not a trivial distinction by any stretch.

I agree with Sdajii, Using the correct Charts (in every sense) for your research certainly helps....

 

[ducati916]

The miners.

I'm meh on the miners.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Wykoff has support around 2500 now. This would be a good thing.

I'm looking forward to a 10% jump in gold soon. Is that out of the question?

View attachment 182822

While enjoying Jim Wyckoff's coulumns in Kitco I believe his support resistance lines in the above to be wrong.

There is too little distance here between the s and r prices, in this case just 4%, too little time looked at for the trading environment hoped for and it is December Gold not spot.

There are also not enough prices touched for it to be true support or resistance imo.

Jim is no relation to Richard Wyckoff btw. who developed a TA system with rules over 100 years ago which is still relevant today and is worth a look at for those new to charting.

I believe @Sean K that you are reasonable in looking at a 10% jump in the POG i.e. $USD 250 and believe that to be a conservative estimate. The funds in the US are looking at appreciations on the NASDAQ of 10% weekly sometimes and money is getting cheaper there.

gg

 

[peter2]

I've noticed that the ASX gold miners are proving difficult to trade. Many have been hobbled by internal issues and government involvement (both here and abroad). The easier securities to trade seem to be the ETFs (GOLD, PMGOLD and GDX).

The gold miners on the US have been trading much more smoothly. Plus there's more silver miners as well.

 

[qldfrog]

I've noticed that the ASX gold miners are proving difficult to trade. Many have been hobbled by internal issues and government involvement (both here and abroad). The easier securities to trade seem to be the ETFs (GOLD, PMGOLD and GDX).

The gold miners on the US have been trading much more smoothly. Plus there's more silver miners as well.

And gdxj if you want exposure to juniors