Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gold has had quite a retracement to $2384.50 these last few days. No obvious reason. The experts say it is due to interest rates about to fall next month in the US and the Japanese abandoning the carry trade and buying Yen. Then they would say that.

gg

 

[DrBourse]

I might just add that my Candlesticks reflect each individual days action - the addage of Candles that are governed by "yesterdays close to todays open" does not sit well with me....

Just realised that wording was wrong - it should have been - "yesterdays close to todays close or Open"....
In other words todays candle is just that - a stand alone candle.

 

[Sdajii]

Gold has had quite a retracement to $2384.50 these last few days. No obvious reason. The experts say it is due to interest rates about to fall next month in the US and the Japanese abandoning the carry trade and buying Yen. Then they would say that.

gg

It's probably just getting caught up in the panic of everyone selling everything lately. Gold is usually a safe haven commodity which does well in panics and recessions, but in the very short term the markets are prone to doing all sorts of ridiculous things, and we've all seen no shortage of examples of.

A jaded cynic may say manipulators are pushing the prices down early in the panic to encourage more selling and allowing themselves to accumulate more in the slightly shorter term. That's probably not happening, but without doubt various countries and organisations are accumulating and keeping that as quiet as possible in order to prevent news of their own doings making their doings harder.

It's gold, it does well in recessions, it does well during times of inflation, it'll do well in the upcoming panic, and overall it'll do well for longer than any of us will live to see. It's not really surprising if it dips slightly at the moment; even after the crash over the last few days it's still right near the recent all time highs. Last month is the only month in history the price has ever closed about where it is right now. If gold had been sitting at a relatively low level lately, it would probably have jumped up in response to the panic since few would want to cash out of a safe haven asset, and many would want to buy in. I'm not buying the speculation on interest rates story so much.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

My post this afternoon may not bring much joy to Gold lovers, but it needs saying anyway. Gold has had great difficulty in gaining and exceeding $USD2500. Great difficulty. We are now looking at the possibility of a triple top, which never bodes well for a stock or commodity in practice. In my experience anyway. Should it not reach and go past $2500 tonight or at the latest tomorrow or Thursday morning we may be looking at a retracement. On the charts anyway. I have no idea what the Semitic, Persian, Kievian and Muscovy cousins are up to. So it is just a chart impression.

You see 2500 is what I call a nice number. Other nice numbers I've collected are 28 and 78 but more of those in some other post. 2500 is easy to multiple. Five oz at $2500 equals $10000 plus $2500 ,or $12500. Or divide by two and multiply by ten. I am sure the mathematicians amongst us can play around further, but that is sufficient for me where the limits of my prowess are long multiplication and division. To make matters worse I find fingers better than a calculator.

Here is the chart. Weep. If it does fall and I hold on to what is a significant bet it will be a painful experience for me. I'm ahead, but greed will probably win out over fear. At this point in time.




gg

 

[ducati916]

Technically:



I like the potential momentum picking up technically.

Fundamentally, the PBoC is onboard. That's an 800lbs gorilla playing outside the US sandbox. JPM sells more, they buy more. Who has the most paper?

What's not to love?

jog on
duc

 

[mullokintyre]

maybe China should make a bid for JPM and close em down.
Mick.

 

[DaveTrade]

I like the potential momentum picking up technically.

We had a higher low last time it tried to break out, this time we have an even higher low. I like the look of it but as @Garpal Gumnut says I will wait and see what happens this time around. I have very long options so I can wait if I need to.

 

[Chipp]

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

We had a higher low last time it tried to break out, this time we have an even higher low. I like the look of it but as @Garpal Gumnut says I will wait and see what happens this time around. I have very long options so I can wait if I need to.

Maybe it’s just me, v.low mood today for no reason. It affects your view of things. I had a look at another gold chart which as you say just shows a steady progression in price towards more highs.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

While many Central Banks throughout the world are net buyers of gold, the US fed is the odd one out.
From Mises Institute

I was originally going to post the above in the completely Useless and Irrelevant thread, but then thought that someone might find it useful and/ relevant.

Mick

 

[rederob]

The below chart of monthly gold prices over the past 40 years still sees upside to $2800 as possible in the months ahead before falling away.
Countering that is a +$400 post October 7 Gaza conflict premium that pulls POG back to around $2000/oz.
The Middle East is clearly a very distressed neck of the woods and there does not yet appear any chance of stability returning any time soon.
And America's debt situation isn't getting better either, so onwards and upwards looks like the more probable path heading into 2025.

 

[Chipp]

The below chart of monthly gold prices over the past 40 years still sees upside to $2800 as possible in the months ahead before falling away.
Countering that is a +$400 post October 7 Gaza conflict premium that pulls POG back to around $2000/oz.
The Middle East is clearly a very distressed neck of the woods and there does not yet appear any chance of stability returning any time soon.
And America's debt situation isn't getting better either, so onwards and upwards looks like the more probable path heading into 2025.

View attachment 182572

Or you could use a Log Chart which might be more applicable over that range and time and see top of channel could be close to $5000 . We all see it differently and thats what makes a market .

 

[Sean K]

My post this afternoon may not bring much joy to Gold lovers, but it needs saying anyway. Gold has had great difficulty in gaining and exceeding $USD2500. Great difficulty. We are now looking at the possibility of a triple top, which never bodes well for a stock or commodity in practice. In my experience anyway. Should it not reach and go past $2500 tonight or at the latest tomorrow or Thursday morning we may be looking at a retracement. On the charts anyway. I have no idea what the Semitic, Persian, Kievian and Muscovy cousins are up to. So it is just a chart impression.

You see 2500 is what I call a nice number. Other nice numbers I've collected are 28 and 78 but more of those in some other post. 2500 is easy to multiple. Five oz at $2500 equals $10000 plus $2500 ,or $12500. Or divide by two and multiply by ten. I am sure the mathematicians amongst us can play around further, but that is sufficient for me where the limits of my prowess are long multiplication and division. To make matters worse I find fingers better than a calculator.

Testing you GG. This is a very significant number, so won't be surprised at another fail. But if it breaks through....

 

[qldfrog]

Testing you GG. This is a very significant number, so won't be surprised at another fail. But if it breaks through....

View attachment 182685

Currently gold at 2537 USD
Magic number gone thru @Garpal Gumnut

 

[rederob]

Nice to end the week at yet another record high for the year, but this time over that psychological $2500 barrier.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Testing you GG. This is a very significant number, so won't be surprised at another fail. But if it breaks through....

View attachment 182685

Currently gold at 2537 USD
Magic number gone thru @Garpal Gumnut

That is good.

More than good.

Bloody magnificent.

gg

 

[mullokintyre]

The WSJ had this page from back on 20/09/2022.
Has not aged well.
Mick

 

[Sdajii]

Currently gold at 2537 USD
Magic number gone thru @Garpal Gumnut

I had fun watching it hit new highs in the early hours of this morning, and was pleased when I woke up to see that it had comfortably closed above $2,500. Not to split hairs, but where did you see $2537? I didn't see it quite hit $2510. Are you talking about futures?

 

[Sean K]

Still have a bit to go to meet this target, that should have taken much longer than what we've seen really. It's run pretty hard since the breakout on the monthly early this year. Maybe this run is good enough and it needs a bit of a break... Don't want it, but might be healthy. My brother is a fundamental analyst and he pooh poohed the cup and handle formation and potential projection last year. Ha!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I had fun watching it hit new highs in the early hours of this morning, and was pleased when I woke up to see that it had comfortably closed above $2,500. Not to split hairs, but where did you see $2537? I didn't see it quite hit $2510. Are you talking about futures?

You and @eskys had a discussion recently about seeing Gold go through 2500 last week or the week before. While browsing a few days ago I did see a commodities chart which showed Gold spiking through 2500 towards the end of a trading day. It was a Gold commodity etf or similar trading through an arca on the NYSE. Unfortunately I didn't bookmark it to reply to you both.

Perhaps @qldfrog saw a spike occur similarly from some similar traded commodity chart or entity. Sometimes you see it with stocks where the occasional spike for 1 share causes an unexplained high on a chart which is not considered a proper high.

Anyways Kitco.com is my go to for the POG and from there the last trade before the weekend was $USD 2507.70 which is where it will stay until Sydney begins trading on Monday. Thanks for the alert @qldfrog , very welcome news. I was beginning to lose heart.

gg