Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Excerpt below from stockhead article 23/06

A report by Bloomberg predicts that the fear of missing out (FOMO) could dominate the Gold market if an economic slowdown in H2 2023 triggers a selloff in stocks.

“Central-bank accumulation and the potential for a global economic slowdown, on the back of the most aggressive rate-hike period ever, may set the stage for Gold to move toward US$3,000 an ounce,” said Bloomberg senior macro strategist, Mike McGlone in a report.
 
I'm going to put up a series of charts on GLD to show what it's been doing and where it is at the moment. I'm using a series of charts because if I put up one chart it may be confusing to look at with too many lines on it.

This first chart is a weekly showing how price has moved within the pitchfork channels and how price started the down move when it broke out of the upward pitchfork channel. Currently price is close to the edge of the down channel.
1687928105150.png

Zooming in to a daily chart makes it clearer to see how price has reacted to support/resistance zones and the channel itself as it moves lower. The next support from the gap is just below.
1687928637187.png

Overlaying a fib percent breakdown on the move up shows how price reacted to these levels on the way up and how price has been affected by them on the way down. Currently price is getting close to the 0.618 retracement level from the up move.
1687929848049.png

Going one step further by adding a fib fan on the chart will add a fib time element. Price has been reacting to these time&price levels as well. Price is very close to reaching the 0.786 time%price fib line near the 0.618 fib retracement line which is just above the gap support zone. The market is oversold at a time when central banks are buying gold and world equity markets have been going up on thin air so I wouldn't be surprised to see GLD turn up before breaching the gap support zone, or maybe sooner.
1687930562866.png
 
Throwing some MA's on it you see how these are also working as support levels, if it breaks the 150sma, next stop 200sma which should meet in the gap zone.
1687934250245.png

Momentum divergence can also be seen, not shown on these charts, which is another indication of a possible change in direction soon.
 
A big down bar on GLD last night made me think of a song by a well known Ausie band, one line with a couple of words changed keep ringing through my mind; It's a long way to the top if it's gunner rock and roll. The question is of course, has it made a bottom? A couple more charts will add a bit more significance to this level being the turning point.

The daily chart below shows how the gap zone has provided support and so far the market has closed above the 0.786 time&price fib line.
1688615652540.png

Going to a weekly chart I've put on the fib retracement levels from whole move up from the Nov22 low. You can see how the recent low bounced off the 0.382 fib retracement, another piece of evidence.
1688615953806.png

Now I've put a fib time&price fan on the weekly chart and it shows that the market is currently at the 50% time&price fib line, another piece of supporting evidence.
1688616294998.png

Nothing in the markets is certain until it happens but if the Gold market is going to continue to move up then the current time and price level seems like a good place for it to turn and start the next move higher.
 
GLD is looking good now with all indicators 'up' but is does have some minor resistance zones to push through at these price levels and just overhead. The 50day SMA can also act as resistance or support.
1689227411682.png

DaveTrade said:
It still may go lower before heading up but I took some new positions in the miners last night. I feel we are looking at bargain prices at the moment.
Click to expand...
I'm going to exit these short-term options positions tonight that I took in the miners (post #14,459). I think that gold and gold miners are still long-term bullish but these are short-term options and if the overhead resistance slows the progress of the market they will soon start to lose time value. These short-term options are already up 92.5% so there is no need for me to risk a pullback.
I still have a bullish long-term options position in the miners that I will hold.
1689228005287.png
 
Was thinking about adding to the small positions I have in two gold producers but last night's rally in the POG made the open prices gap above my limits. Strange night last night as both equities and gold rallied strongly after the CPI news. I'm pleased to see the price of copper sneaking higher as well.
 
Jordan Roy-Byrne reckons a buy signal occurred on Wednesday before it popped. Thinks there's a comparison with late 70's and 2009 to the current late consolidation.

"Here is a weekly chart of Gold with the equivalent to the 150-day moving average.

Gold's recent correction bottomed at the 150-day moving average. The light purple arrows show tests of the 150-day moving average before significant breakouts.

The late 1970s and 2009 are potentially similar to now because those were breakouts that followed the first significant correction after a new all-time high."
Click to expand...
 

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