Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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qldfrog said:
Not sure where to put it,
It is bigger than gold but gold is key..
I noticed that article and the info that our treasurer went to get orders from the US/deep state before releasing the budget
Which makes me think the US might plan it's fight back to keep its USD supremacy , currently in a bad way
Albanese even got a lolly with a listing in the 100 most influencing people in the world..he should open a tik tok account.
So the Aussie government is being prep to be part of something big
I expect brutal move on gold in the very near future, this is an economic/financial war raging around USD supremacy and Gold, US and servants (EU, Australia,Canada maybe Japan) vs the rest of the world
I do not know the form it will take: Gold seizure ,even more suppression via JPM ,new crypto currency and control but this is on
Click to expand...
yes retain some caution , desperate governments do despicable things ( even the US closed the gold window once )

gold is the enemy of all fiat currencies ( it has no third-arty risk )
 
1994.90 ): Just a slight dip below deck of 2K US the silly thing. Must had too much to drink, reckon. Anyways have a good weekend.



Kind regards
rcw1
 
I think there is a good chance of more downside in GLD on Monday. That orange line on the chart is 184.19 and it closed Friday at 184.25 looking bearish in the price action.
1682171999890.png

If I overlay some Fib support/resistance levels on the chart, they line up fairly well with the support/resistance zones that I have marked. Keep an eye on it this next week looking for support.
1682172659781.png
 
So above we have the painted tape and to be fair, I would agree that on a technical basis, it would look as if gold is going to move lower. However, US tax receipts are in:

Screen Shot 2023-04-23 at 6.27.55 AM.pngScreen Shot 2023-04-23 at 6.28.22 AM.pngScreen Shot 2023-04-23 at 6.28.35 AM.pngScreen Shot 2023-04-23 at 6.28.35 AM.pngScreen Shot 2023-04-23 at 6.28.49 AM.pngScreen Shot 2023-04-23 at 6.28.58 AM.pngScreen Shot 2023-04-23 at 6.31.55 AM.png

Whoops, way below what is needed.

Confirmation of the above:Screen Shot 2023-04-23 at 6.26.33 AM.pngScreen Shot 2023-04-23 at 6.26.46 AM.png

So we have reached the position where: tax receipts are far below requirements, necessitating a raising of the debt ceiling, which accelerates the compounding nature of the debt. This places huge pressure on the Fed to monetise (because Russia, China, Europe, Japan and the US banking system certainly won't be) the debt and concurrently lower the FFR as the recession really sets in.

So what about that paper gold price?

If they do manage to collapse it...the acceleration in physical buying will place JPM (backstopped by the US government) in an ever increasing leveraged position as their physical drains away, which even for JPM becomes a high risk position.

They are certainly selling it hard:

Screen Shot 2023-04-23 at 6.47.51 AM.png

Yet the price is not (yet) showing much movement to the downside.

We'll see.

jog on
duc
 
Unhedged Australian producers must have made a motza in March-April. An extra $300 an ounce over the quarter will be very nice.

Not sure how the AUD POG chart responds to normal TA principles as it's a combo of POG and exchange rates, but this is a pretty good set up.

Screenshot 2023-05-03 at 9.21.46 am.png
 
Sean K said:
Unhedged Australian producers must have made a motza in March-April. An extra $300 an ounce over the quarter will be very nice.

Not sure how the AUD POG chart responds to normal TA principles as it's a combo of POG and exchange rates, but this is a pretty good set up.

View attachment 156560
Click to expand...
Looks good to me, there are a few other MINOR favourable TA signals that confirm your post.
 
Sean K said:
Unhedged Australian producers must have made a motza in March-April. An extra $300 an ounce over the quarter will be very nice.

Not sure how the AUD POG chart responds to normal TA principles as it's a combo of POG and exchange rates, but this is a pretty good set up.

View attachment 156560
Click to expand...
I was in a similar quandary when I recently took a very large position, for me, in Gold bar via PMGOLD.

I got caught up too much in the $USD POG, a part of my brain dismissing the chart of $AUD Gold with so much instantaneous action happening and comment with POG and macro politics. As you said @Sean K the PMGOLD chart is well worth following rather than the $USD POG for Gold mavens trading in $AUD.

Ultimately all the information affecting the POG is contained in the chart. So the AUD/USD rate is no more nor less important than whether Cousin Vladimir Vladimirovich's piles are playing up and affecting his commission of further war crimes.

Particularly as Australia is such a large Gold producer.

I have recently again taken up half of a very large position on the POG via PMGOLD from the PMGOLD chart as much as macro politico-economic factors and will ride it up or toss it aside purely on AUD Gold action as much as macro.

gg
 

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