Gold Price - Where is it heading?

ducati916 · 25 February 2023

Telamelo said:
From that free 'Gold summit presentation' yesterday picked up on following stated below (that apparently impacts Gold price since has a direct correlation)

"To calculate the REAL interest rate, you take the US Federal Reserve rate...and SUBTRACT inflation from it.

But NOT current inflation, which is obviously really high around the world right now.

You use inflation EXPECTATIONS — which is where the market says inflation is headed.

Basically, subtract inflation expectations from the Federal Reserve interest rate...and you get ‘real’ interest rates.

When real rates fall…Gold often soars (and real rates have begun to fall)".

The other important thing mentioned was that the US economy can't withstand/survive prolonged elevated/high interest rates due to the US drowning in debt - so watch for real rates to ease/fall in the short to medium term imo which is bullish for Gold.

Mosler is one of the, if not primary MMT idiots. He seems to be spinning this as a positive, rather than driving inflation higher.

But essentially, the higher the real interest rate, the higher the deficit becomes. It is the classic debt doom loop.

The Treasury under Yellen is already in collusion with Central banks around the world in the 'daisy chain' operation. This is essentially CBs buying each others debt in a sub rosa QE. Inflation and LOTS of it is the only way that Western governments survive without re-monetising gold.

Using the 1980's CPI calculation:

Of course the masses, even if they realised, don't have the marginal buying power to protect themselves, hence violent protests or revolution in the worst case scenarios.

Then add in:

Mr Putin can outlast the US.

Given that this is and always has been yet another proxy war between the Soviets and US (starting in 2014 by Obama) the US is getting their lunch handed to them (again) due to the level of debt that they went to war with. Unsustainable.

jog on
duc

Sean K · 25 February 2023

Part of golds decline has been interest rate rises and USD strength. Are we approaching a turning point?

divs4ever · 25 February 2023

Garpal Gumnut said:
It would be nice to buy a good pub where only kindly rapscallions and argumentative punters given to passion and hope such as reside on ASF were shareholders and patrons.

I have awoken at 3.00 am Australian Queensland Fixed time to find my meagre cigar-money stock portfolio in the USA bounding ahead and Gold moving down towards $USD1900.

Gold makes fools of us all. I had hopes for at least it cruising up at $USD1950-1970.

Greed and Fear. Love em both.

gg

is NOT the gold , it is the US Dollar and market influencers ( like the Fed )

Captain_Chaza · 25 February 2023

Sean K said:
Part of golds decline has been interest rate rises and USD strength. Are we approaching a turning point?

View attachment 153552

What a lot of RUBBISH! IMHO

I can't see the Peak in the BIG buck yet

Not Even Close!

Salute and Stay Safe and Dry

Sean K · 25 February 2023

Captain_Chaza said:
What a lot of RUBBISH! IMHO

I can't see the Peak in the BIG buck yet

Not Even Close!

Salute and Stay Safe and Dry
View attachment 153553

I'm not sure if that's RUBBISH, just pasting up stuff off AFR, which is generally crap except for a couple of reporters in mining. Giving Laura Tingle a voice makes me think I should ditch my subscription. But, I think you are WRONG that USD won't correct at some stage. It might not be tomorrow, but it will happen. Get ahead of the interest rate backtrack. Prepare to gybe.

rcw1 · 25 February 2023

Good afternoon
Anamoe is gold...

Kind regards
rcw1

Captain_Chaza · 25 February 2023

rcw1 said:
Good afternoon
Anamoe is gold...

Kind regards
rcw1

For the Cox Plate?

BTW I still think GOLD is a Pair of TWO's

DaveTrade · 25 February 2023

Captain_Chaza said:
I can't see the Peak in the BIG buck yet

I have to agree with @Captain_Chaza, in the chart below it can be seen that the US Dollar is moving up strongly which is confirmed by the indicator below. The indicator is my modification of the 'Money Flow Index'.

DaveTrade · 25 February 2023

Here is the same indicator on gold;

Sean K · 25 February 2023

DaveTrade said:
Here is the same indicator on gold;
View attachment 153556

So, they are linked? USD up, POG down? Those two charts seem to correlate. Is there a USD/POG long term chart since we got off the gold standard?

DrBourse · 26 February 2023

This article is from www.GoldBroker.com .......

qldfrog · 26 February 2023

DrBourse said:
This article is from www.GoldBroker.com .......
View attachment 153564

I did not see you as a gold bug? Not pejorative here, I trust gold too much myself

ducati916 · 27 February 2023

Captain_Chaza said:
What a lot of RUBBISH! IMHO

I can't see the Peak in the BIG buck yet

Not Even Close!

Salute and Stay Safe and Dry
View attachment 153553

A 'high' USD is and will be opposed by the Treasury, Yellen and Europe/Japan:

First, US Tax receipts are predicated on a strong stock market. If stocks fall, US tax receipts fall:

Second:

If US tax receipts fall, the Treasury needs to issue more Treasuries to plug the gap. With a strong USD, the only marginal buyer is the Fed. which is very inflationary. Europe and Japan cannot buy UST because they cannot hedge out FX risk with a high USD:

In October, Yellen attended an IMF meeting. Then USD fell. Not only fell, it collapsed:

Yellen does an about face in a 24hr period.

Simply, there is a new 'Plaza Accord' for a weaker USD to allow marginal buyers of UST (Europe/Japan) to hedge their FX exposure.

UST auctions are now strong. Indeud, some of the strongest for a long time. US markets moved higher.

Add in all the issues Japan/Europe had with their currencies falling into the toilet re. purchase of energy and the benefits of a weak USD are a win/win for the West.

In conclusion, the USD will NOT BE ALLOWED to move higher past a certain point.

Of course that/this will cause issues re. inflation.

jog on
duc

Captain_Chaza · 27 February 2023

It must be noted that Your DXY chart above is horribly out of date
FOUR (4) weeks out of date

It seems Everything has changed a Month ago
This all about "The Now" and
Not October when the DXY was in a different Hemisphere

Salute and Stay Safe & Dry

DaveTrade · 27 February 2023

The price of Gold moves up and down but is the value of Gold moving up and down in the same direction as the price of Gold?

The value of Gold is determined by supply and demand, like any commodity, but Gold is priced in US Dollars and the value of US Dollars varies. So if the value of Gold stays the same and the value of the us$ falls then more US Dollars would be required to equal the same us$ value and the price of Gold would increase even though the real value of Gold has not changed. Likewise if the value of Gold stays the same and the value of the us$ increases then less US Dollars would be required to equal the same us$ value and the price of Gold would decrease even though the real value of Gold has not changed.

I thought it would be nice to have an indicator that shows the movement of the real value of Gold, the part that is affected by supply and demand. So following the above logic, the formula for a change in the price of Gold would be;

Change in price of Gold = Change in Gold real value - Change in us$

therefore

Change in Gold real value = Change in price of Gold + Change in us$

An example using this formula would be;

Gold’s price increases by 5% as the us$ deceases by 3%.

Change in Gold real value = (+5%) + (-3%)

Change in Gold real value = +2%

The indicator will give an indication of the change in supply and demand for Gold. I’ll call the indicator CGRV which stands for Change of Gold Real Value. This was an exercise to satisfy my curiosity, if anyone would like to see this indicator from time to time just ask and I’ll put a chart up.

eskys · 27 February 2023

I've arrived at the crossroad.........almost everything has become a brain twister......

finicky · 27 February 2023

Yeah, so not a good idea to follow the gold price at close quarters @eskys. There's a gold thought leader from the early 2000's who used to say, "when that happens gold will go absolutely bananas!" He is literally wheeled into gold conferences now by a nurse. Wears a dribble napkin.

Garpal Gumnut · 27 February 2023

Gold $USD1812
$AUD2691

So the decrease in Gold price in $USD has made Gold approx $AUD10 higher in 2weeks as the AUD/USD falls.

Interesting times.

gg

Garpal Gumnut · 27 February 2023

finicky said:
Yeah, so not a good idea to follow the gold price at close quarters @eskys. There's a gold thought leader from the early 2000's who used to say, "when that happens gold will go absolutely bananas!" He is literally wheeled into gold conferences now by a nurse. Wears a dribble napkin.

I'll just have the nurse, thanks @finicky.

gg

eskys · 27 February 2023

finicky said:
Yeah, so not a good idea to follow the gold price at close quarters @eskys. There's a gold thought leader from the early 2000's who used to say, "when that happens gold will go absolutely bananas!" He is literally wheeled into gold conferences now by a nurse. Wears a dribble napkin.

Dribbling at the thought of gold becoming bananas?

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

ducati916

Sean K

Moderator

divs4ever

Captain_Chaza

Sean K

Moderator

rcw1

Captain_Chaza

DaveTrade

DaveTrade

Sean K

Moderator

DrBourse

If you don't Ask, you don't Get.

qldfrog

ducati916

Captain_Chaza

DaveTrade

eskys

finicky

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel

eskys

Similar threads

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Moderator

Moderator

Moderator

If you don't Ask, you don't Get.

Ross Island Hotel

Ross Island Hotel

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency