Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Uncle Festivus]

Not sure i agree UF that it will strengthen? Flat or down yes, but whats the motive to invest in the greenback if rates stay the same? Lately it seems like every bit of negative data to come out of the US has pushed the dollar down, the FED leaving rates unchanged would only confirm that those decisions were correct yes?

Cheers,

A bit of contrarian thinking CanOz, as I am amazed that the $US has held up so well. Logic would agree with you, but with a trivial matter of the worlds biggest economy at stake I'm sure there will be some extremely powerful forces at work to ensure the $US index won't go anywhere near the major support around 80 or so.

So it still has some premium to some other currencies so I think it will be steady as she goes for rates unchanged outcome. Any strengthening would be from a technicaly oversold rebound. Silly but probable

However, if it does breach 80 then the game is over and you can then pick your own price for gold I think

 

[bean]

Interest rates in US.
We have three market at various breakout points.
Gold ready to break to new highs
The US$ near its lows
And the DOW making new highs each day (blow off top???)

And the above comments are as though nothing is going to happen!!!!!

Get real

If Gold breaks out the US$ is gone
The FED has to stop gold.
And if it means upsetting the market than they will.

The market is expecting easing in the wording.
If they do Gold will be up like a shot to new highs and the dollar tanking.

If they don't say easing the market will tank..

So you have a choice whats going to tank

 

[Sean K]

Interest rates in US.
We have three market at various breakout points.
Gold ready to break to new highs
The US$ near its lows
And the DOW making new highs each day (blow off top???)

And the above comments are as though nothing is going to happen!!!!!

Get real

If Gold breaks out the US$ is gone
The FED has to stop gold.
And if it means upsetting the market than they will.

The market is expecting easing in the wording.
If they do Gold will be up like a shot to new highs and the dollar tanking.

If they don't say easing the market will tank..

So you have a choice whats going to tank

You really do like the gold thread Bean! So, what's your call? $US tank and Gold pushing on to all time highs?

I think POG is effected by three things really and needs them all to align for appreciation.

Geopolitical tension
Oil up effecting US inflation
$US weakness.

Once they all align to their various degrees, POG up.

 

[bean]

You really do like the gold thread Bean! So, what's your call? $US tank and Gold pushing on to all time highs?

I have been in the Gold correction camp.
Because if the US$ tanks the US market will follow because world market will correct as their currencies rise. including Australia

But I have been showing US Gold indexes have been following the markets.
SO I think the market will tank including Gold.

Because the FED can try and save the market down the track by easing interest rates and try a recovery that way, as the US will be heading into a recession.

But if the US$ tanks it has no floor on the charts so where do they find support for it.
Also financial turmoil and they will still have the Markets dropping caused by world markets dropping.

But if US$ market drops initial supportive will flee to the US$ causing it to rise.
Sentiment on the US$ is so negative what an excellent time for it to rally

You will know this week if I am right or wrong.

And either way the Australian market is going to correct..
Either with a rising Aussie $
or falling markets

And there is your recipe.

 

[explod]

I have been in the Gold correction camp.
Because if the US$ tanks the US market will follow because world market will correct as their currencies rise. including Australia

But I have been showing US Gold indexes have been following the markets.
SO I think the market will tank including Gold.

Because the FED can try and save the market down the track by easing interest rates and try a recovery that way, as the US will be heading into a recession.

But if the US$ tanks it has no floor on the charts so where do they find support for it.
Also financial turmoil and they will still have the Markets dropping caused by world markets dropping.

But if US$ market drops initial supportive will flee to the US$ causing it to rise.
Sentiment on the US$ is so negative what an excellent time for it to rally

You will know this week if I am right or wrong.

And either way the Australian market is going to correct..
Either with a rising Aussie $
or falling markets

And there is your recipe.

What a load of crap. In the 60s you could buy a house for about $5,000. Today a standard house, perhaps a bit flasher for $300,000 So what has gone wrong, inflation........or is it the money, paper money is losing its value. In Germany early last century it took a wheelbarrow of money to buy a pie at the end of their financial collapse. We have seen this in many countries over time since the Romans. (Rhodesia at the moment) Anyone serious about good investing needs to study the money side of things and its relationship to gold which has been the basic form of exchange for thousands of years. Due to massive debt it is happening to the US dollar now. Although it has moved violently in value in times of financial turmoil, overall gold has retained its value throughout history. Worth about $40 an ounce in the sixties, hit $900 in 1980 and climbing again now. However because it appeared to be a threat to the paper money system in the 70s and 80s the governments of the developed countries and the central bankers got together to try and cap gold and did so very successfully till recently. First the central banks are fast running out of it, second, world gold production is down dramatically and finally because money is losing value, particularly if it just sits in the bank wise investors (in my view) are accumulating the stuff. Now I could go on and on but I am sure if you want you can find out more, and if you want to insure your wealth you should, you can 'Google it" Very soon gold will go up to a price and a rate that will astound. There may be a few days when the price of gold will be pushed down on the fall of the stock markets but the big money will soon know that the only way to insure themselve against the loss of their wealth will be by turning suddenly to prescious metals, in particular gold

What I am trying to get across, not very well, is that the thread is about gold, stock markets and gold do not have a lot to do with each other except for mining stocks. Gold is about wealth in the hand, ie. money...currencies Anyway I am sure there are better heads to this discussion that can put things right, but the discussion on gold as the object is the content here in my view

 

[BlueDaze]

Look To The East

I now have the trigger
The Fed meets on Wednesday on interest rates.
Every market is in place for their decision.

bean,

I am more inclined to the view that the trigger will be from China or the Yen.

http://www.biiwii.com/prem/biiwiiletter.htm

But, as you said, we will know very soon...

 

[BlueDaze]

Cycles

What a load of crap.

Hi, fully agree with your points on gold as honest money and store of true-value. The fundamentals are in for a long-term secular bull in gold. But within secular trends there are also cyclical ups and downs. The key question is where are we moving in the cycles...

 

[Kimosabi]

I was trying to work out when to post this video, but now I think think is the appropriate time.

DOW vs Gold

...or...

Investment Price vs Investment Value

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=9084947195585759605

Must be about time to visit the Perth Mint...

 

[BlueDaze]

Look To The East

I am more inclined to the view that the trigger will be from China or the Yen.

Nasdaq in the Late 1990's
and Shanghai Composite Today: Eerie Similarity

http://china.seekingalpha.com/article/34607

 

[BlueDaze]

Dow's Dangerous Winning Streak

Dow's Dangerous Winning Streak

The market's recent performance mirrors the strong runs that led up to the crashes of the Nikkei in 1989 and the Dow in 1929. Coincidence? Or warning?

By Bill Fleckenstein

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.co...Chronicles/TheDowsDangerousWinningStreak.aspx

Folks can be forgiven for rolling their eyes at general statements that begin: "The historical data suggest that..." But apply this to potential stock-market gains and losses, and people's attention usually perks up.

Recently, I decided to revisit a chart of Japan's Nikkei index from 1989. What prompted me were comments by GMO Chairman Jeremy Grantham that, for America's current stock bubble to burst, it may need to go parabolic, a la Tokyo 1989. When I read that, I thought: Wait, the Nikkei did not go parabolic at the end in 1989. I was short that market in 1989 and held long-dated put warrants, so I followed it quite closely. In the final five months before its crash, the Nikkei was almost orderly, rallying about 20%. By contrast, the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX) nearly doubled in the last five months before the 2000 crash.

Mr Dow's Hitting Streak & History

In any case, after a little checking, I did find an amazing similarity between the last month or so of the rise in Japan that ended on Dec. 29, 1989, and the current advance in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) (through April 27): Specifically, the last 32 out of 38 trading days in Tokyo were on the upside, with an initial run with a higher close on 19 out of 21 days, followed by seven out of 11, followed by six for six before about a 40% drop in the course of nine months took place. Recently, from the lows of March 5, the Dow closed higher in four out of six sessions, followed by seven out of 11, followed by 20 out of 22 - for a grand total of 31 out of 39 days. The last time the Dow had a run of 19 out of 21 days was in July 1929 - not exactly a great time to buy stocks.

Now, I am not a big believer in analogs, but if the mind-set in Tokyo back in those days was similar to the mind-set that we're witnessing here today, which, by my reckoning, it is, I guess it's not impossible for that similarity to have some predictive power.

Getting Liquid To Fight Leverage

Meanwhile, despite what history tells us about the ultimate outcome of market euphoria, the bulls are having no part of it, as they enjoy the current incredible rip to the upside. Against that backdrop, I cannot shake this nagging feeling that the most important idea for folks to consider before the coming dislocation hits, whenever it hits, is that it will be necessary to have some liquidity, even if that liquidity is held in a crummy currency like the dollar. I am more convinced than ever that the amount of leverage being held at the institutional, hedge-fund, individual and corporate levels is, while not directly ascertainable, extremely high. In fact, I think the overall financial risks are far higher than I ever imagined they could be.

Consequently, I no longer believe it's possible to determine in advance just what asset classes might be safe in a financial dislocation, as so many of them have become so intertwined, while at the same time we can't know how leveraged any of the underlying positions may be. Thus, when liquidation occurs one of these days, absurd developments may unfold that you might like to take advantage of. But one must have some flexibility - liquidity - to do that.

So, as I did by recently in selling my Newmont Mining position, I intend to find ways to increase my own liquidity, while still trying to protect myself against the fact that the dollar is sure to decline in value. I encourage others to give this subject some careful consideration.

 

[bean]

Well as I have been saying over the last few weeks
US Gold indexes and S&P 500 and in general US markets have been moving in tandem.

TODAYS CLOSING (NO SURPRISES HERE)

IN THE GREEN CORNER

GOLD - US GOLD INDEXES - DOW - S & P 500

IN THE RED CORNER

US $


LETS CALL FOR A REPEAT TONIGHT IN CASE YOU MISS IT

 

[bean]

I DID SAY TOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
I THINK I AM WRONG.

I THINK IT WILL BE TONIGHT

I NEED US MARKETS UP AND GOLD however

THE NASDAQ IS WEAK
IT CAN BE UP TO NIGHT DOWN TOMORROW NIGHT AND I HAVE IT NEGATIVE.
WHEREAS TWO DAYS UP THEN DOWN ONLY MAKES IT NEUTRAL.

ON THIS MOVE IN CASH GOLD ON COMEX FROM ABOUT US$ 640
IT REACHED A OF US$ 694 on 23RD APRIL
LAST NIGHT CLOSED AT US$ 688.70

IF I AM RIGHT IT WILL NOT TAKE THAT CLOSING PRICE OUT
SO I AM ONLY LEFT WITH A SMALL MARGIN TO CALL
BEFORE A DOUBLE TOP???

NOW IF I AM WRONG GOLD WILL TAKE THAT OUT
AND THE US$ FALLS AS ITS NEAR ITS LOWS

BUT I BELIEVE IT WILL BE THE OPPOSITE AND THE US$ IS THE ONLY THING
THAT RISES.

SO TONIGHT IF US MARKETS UP
I GET AN OVERBOUGHT (however not extreme but still a high reading. The
Nasdaq if it struggles may show that it is about to cave in show you
that it is indeed the markets correction and gold stocks and gold will
correct as well as investers move to cash ofn a spirraling market)

GOLD UP will make a double top or its just got massive resistance at
this level

 

[bean]

NOW DON'T YOU HATE IT

I NOW HAVE TO WONDER IF THE MARKET WILL BE UP TONIGHT???
GOLD UP???

THE ONLY THING THAN WAS SHOWN INITIALLY WAS GOLD AND MARKETS DOWN
THE US$ WAS UP

BUT ALSO HAD BOTH GOLD AND MARKETS DOWN (SAME DIRECTION)
BOTH MOVED UP FROM LOWS (SAME DIRECTION)

SO THEY ARE STILL MOVING TOGETHER!!!!

 

[Kauri]

Visually the last leg doesn't seem to have travelled far enough for a Wc of W4 yet, I guess tonight and the FOMC will decide it. Incidentally, for this year to date gold has been up when the $US has been down for approx. 80% of the time.

 

[Sean K]

I DID SAY TOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
I THINK I AM WRONG.

I THINK IT WILL BE TONIGHT

Bean, if you keep making predictions that it will be 'tonight', you will get it right one day. LOL

If not tonight, maybe Thursday? :

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Mr Bean, stop SHOUTING please, we get the message .

Some interesting long term (weekly) triangles forming for the 3 indexs of concern -

Gold - ascending triangle - long term bullish
XAU - ascending triangle - long term bullish
$US - short term falling wedge - short term bullish

The $US looks to be the spoiler here as it looks like going for a dead cat bounce - gold might weaken one more time, get rid of the weak hands. Getting closer to judgment day - which triangle will break out?

 

[bean]

Bean, if you keep making predictions that it will be 'tonight', you will get it right one day. LOL

If not tonight, maybe Thursday? :

TRUE

HOWEVER i DID SAY BOTH GOLD AND DOW HAD TO FINISH UP..

I made the statement yesterday at lunchtime about the possibility of a
top last night.
(Asian markets down, Gold down, and US futures down 0.30% and looking
like Europe going to open down)
Well I nearly got my closing TOP missed by 5 points!!!!
As the DOW
Previous close 13313 intra day low 13238 finished at 13309.

And as I said both the DOW and GOLD had to FINISH UP.

And nobody would have thought looking at the world markets yesterday every thing red
US markets red . why would I call a top and I nearly got a top

It would have been so much easier to have called that the top then
rather than one tonight!!!!

TONIGHT??
US MARKETS AND GOLD AND GOLD INDEXES ARE MOVING TOGETHER???

I think I have shown that over about the past month.
Does anyone disagree????

Last night I also think it showed what would happen if Gold – US
Markets – and world markets went down the US$ would go up!!!!

Gold I showed yesterday I do not have much leeway.
It is at a point where it can turn BULLISH or BEARISH

US$ is near the point where it can collapse

AND we have the DOW making a FINAL TOP?
Tonight both up and the top is tonight?????

Nasdaq doesn’t really want to go much higher though it can if the DOW
really takes off.
Gold if the DOW takes off will blow past US$ 700
And US$????

WHY will it top tonight and then drop tomorrow and not keep rising????
Why then top not Monday say???
If it was a top – Gold and the DOW have both the failed together??
Which is what I am looking for??
SO if that is the case tonight will be down??

A failure by Gold I would expect it to drop a lot in a day at such an
important decision time..
Therefore I think one more day up and then a failure??

Not a whimper like last night..

I am looking for the top in GOLD to also signal the top in the DOW
AND VISE VERSA


We have everything at decision time something will give????
FED

 

[Sean K]

Mr Bean, stop SHOUTING please, we get the message .

Some interesting long term (weekly) triangles forming for the 3 indexs of concern -

Gold - ascending triangle - long term bullish
XAU - ascending triangle - long term bullish
$US - short term falling wedge - short term bullish

The $US looks to be the spoiler here as it looks like going for a dead cat bounce - gold might weaken one more time, get rid of the weak hands. Getting closer to judgment day - which triangle will break out?

Gold and XAU look to break up from those charts to me. $US just looks doomed.

 

[bean]

Mr Bean, stop SHOUTING please, we get the message .

Some interesting long term (weekly) triangles forming for the 3 indexs of concern -

Gold - ascending triangle - long term bullish
XAU - ascending triangle - long term bullish
$US - short term falling wedge - short term bullish

The $US looks to be the spoiler here as it looks like going for a dead cat bounce - gold might weaken one more time, get rid of the weak hands. Getting closer to judgment day - which triangle will break out?

AGREE BUT I AM SEEING THE DOW MOVING WITH GOLD.
AND I SEE THE DOW MAKING A TOP
AND BOTH WILL BE DROPPING TOGETHER
BUT THE DOW WON'T STOP

 

[Uncle Festivus]

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Contrarians are beginning to see significant upside potential in the gold market.
That's because the majority of gold-timing newsletters have remained out of the gold market or outright short, despite strength in the gold market that has brought the yellow metal to within shouting distance of a 12-month high.
Consider the latest readings from the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Tuesday night, the HGNSI stood at just 14.3%.
As recently as April 25, just nine trading sessions ago, the HGNSI stood at 57.1%. On that day, an ounce of gold traded for $684 - about $3 per ounce lower than where it is trading today.


This all adds up to an extraordinary divergence over the past two weeks. Normally, of course, gold timers tend to become more and less bullish as bullion rises and falls. But this most definitely has not been the case since April 25: Even though gold bullion is now higher than then, the average recommended gold exposure among gold timing newsletters is some 43 percentage points lower.
This is quite bullish from a contrarian point of view, since it suggests a significant amount of skepticism among gold market timers. Bull markets like to climb a wall of worry, and what we're seeing among the gold market timers is a very steep wall indeed.