Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[InsvestoBoy]

Chris Cole has done some fascinating work, especially that long vol aspect of his hawks and serpent paper (or whatever it was called). Thank for reminding me about it ?

I would definitely be sitting on a lower DD for the year if I had been paying more attention to long vol in bonds and getting some CTA exposure but you can't win 'em all and cash is starting to show returns, certainly relative returns YTD vs stocks and bonds are fantastic for cash .

I am pretty sure last months interest payment in my cash accounts was more than my total cumulative interest payments over the last 3 years.

Here's a few counterintuitive links for @Knobby22 ...excuse the offtopic:

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/998988/cash-as-an-inflation-hedge
https://citywire.co.uk/funds-inside...-invest-to-protect-against-inflation/a1519744
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/the-simplest-asset-to-hedge-against-inflation/

(possibly talking my book with 25% cash allocation)

 

[Knobby22]

I would definitely be sitting on a lower DD for the year if I had been paying more attention to long vol in bonds and getting some CTA exposure but you can't win 'em all and cash is starting to show returns, certainly relative returns YTD vs stocks and bonds are fantastic for cash .

I am pretty sure last months interest payment in my cash accounts was more than my total cumulative interest payments over the last 3 years.

Here's a few counterintuitive links for @Knobby22 ...excuse the offtopic:

https://www.morningstar.com/articles/998988/cash-as-an-inflation-hedge
https://citywire.co.uk/funds-inside...-invest-to-protect-against-inflation/a1519744
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/the-simplest-asset-to-hedge-against-inflation/

(possibly talking my book with 25% cash allocation)

Thanks Investoboy.
Good reads. Nice to see evidence.

My take is that history shows short term cash, e.g 30 day investments are a good investment in the short term when inflation is rising.
Commodities and gold can be a gamble. Energy stocks, REITs consumer staples do well. Utilities and growth stocks don't.

Gold bugs love gold but history shows that their faith is only rewarded half the time.

I personally think in this instance that this will not be one of them as gold is already inflated.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'll be a happier numpty should the POG rise by $US 100 and the AUD/USD falls a cent overnight.

Not impossible.

gg

 

[wayneL]

Thanks Investoboy.
Good reads. Nice to see evidence.

My take is that history shows short term cash, e.g 30 day investments are a good investment in the short term when inflation is rising.
Commodities and gold can be a gamble. Energy stocks, REITs consumer staples do well. Utilities and growth stocks don't.

Gold bugs love gold but history shows that their faith is only rewarded half the time.

I personally think in this instance that this will not be one of them as gold is already inflated.

I don't think the view of gold as a hedge for inflation can be taking over the short, or even medium-term. It must be taken as a view over several years or even decades.

As such it is not the only hedge in this space.

And, due to the speculative nature, one must be very careful about the entry point.

If we consider the purchasing power of a dollar, whether of the American or Australian variety, versus the purchasing power of an ounce of gold.... With a very long term, least squares view of such, it is very clear that holding of gold v the holding of cash, is in fact an inflation hedge.

But one must take several steps back and view over the very long-term.

I would add that gold is not the only game in town in this regard, that does carry the greatest perception/deception thereof.

FWIW

Edited to expunge autocorrect absurdities

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Quite an interesting article on the shorting of Gold in London causing an artificial suppression of the POG.

Russia will commence an alternate exchange to the LBMA.

Russia's new gold exchange could challenge LBMA and reveal gold's 'fair' price - Matthew Piepenburg

www.kitco.com

gg

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Quite an interesting article on the shorting of Gold in London causing an artificial suppression of the POG.

Russia will commence an alternate exchange to the LBMA.

Russia's new gold exchange could challenge LBMA and reveal gold's 'fair' price - Matthew Piepenburg

www.kitco.com

gg

Reading kitco will rot your brain GG.

I am sure if you go back some years you can find many credulous articles from them about the launch of the Shanghai Gold Exchange bringing about the end of those dastardly LBMA shorters, or JPM, or whoever.

 

[finicky]

A picture from @NorthstarCharts on twitter today.
Very patient approach of using Quarterly intervals and 28 period ma (=7 year ma). This accepts sacrificing some of the early gain but a lot remains.
So he chooses gold to spx ratio as key and says he will only buy when trendline and 7 year moving average are crossed - reflecting two previous secular bull markets. Looks like best that can be said of the current situation is that the ratio is riding not far from the rail?

Held

 

[qldfrog]

A picture from @NorthstarCharts on twitter today.
Very patient approach of using Quarterly intervals and 28 period ma (=7 year ma). This accepts sacrificing some of the early gain but a lot remains.
So he chooses gold to spx ratio as key and says he will only buy when trendline and 7 year moving average are crossed - reflecting two previous secular bull markets. Looks like best that can be said of the current situation is that the ratio is riding not far from the rail?

Held

View attachment 147118

Interesting and nice approach.thanks

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Gold is holding atm. in USD and just needs to move back up over $US 1785 with some force to crack $US 1800.

The Aussie will have probs not going to 0.6600 or below , so for all Australian Gold holders it should be a peaceful weekend.

gg

 

[rcw1]

Good afternoon
Hope everybody had a good day, today.
FYI should you be so inclined: Gold at 14:10




edit - gold counter
Kind regards
rcw1

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Trying to run stops at 2560 before London opens...one hopes for the best but the supply above this area has just been monstrous all year, doesn't seem impossible that when the heavy volume sessions start it'll be "sold to you".

 

[Captain_Chaza]

LOOKS GREAT!
Hold on Tight!

 

[Captain_Chaza]

A picture from @NorthstarCharts on twitter today.
Very patient approach of using Quarterly intervals and 28 period ma (=7 year ma). This accepts sacrificing some of the early gain but a lot remains.
So he chooses gold to spx ratio as key and says he will only buy when trendline and 7 year moving average are crossed - reflecting two previous secular bull markets. Looks like best that can be said of the current situation is that the ratio is riding not far from the rail?

Held

View attachment 147118

This would have to be THE WORST chart I have ever witnessed

YOU MUST BE KIDDING!!!
Who on Earth studies 7 year delayed Moving Average Data

The only one i can think of is the USA FED
Some Say,
They are our public servants working at their Best

IMHO
Using a 7 year delayed data chart/MA they would not get a job in any of our local Milk Bars

GOLD is not what it used to be!

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Trying to run stops at 2560 before London opens...one hopes for the best but the supply above this area has just been monstrous all year, doesn't seem impossible that when the heavy volume sessions start it'll be "sold to you".

View attachment 147401

blep.

I stayed up past my bedtime to watch this happen in realtime after the NYSE open.

 

[DaveTrade]

This would have to be THE WORST chart I have ever witnessed

Disagree Captain, the big picture gives you context.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Disagree Captain, the big picture gives you context.

It is a chart crime.

1. The chart is not adjusted for total return of the stock index or the negative carry cost for XAU or physical gold.
2. If you plan to time long trades in one asset based on a ratio chart, you better be willing and able to short the other leg of the ratio. Otherwise you are only betting on outperformance vs another asset, not absolute returns. See point 1 again.
3. The chart is obviously overfit and contains precisely 4 datapoints on which it bases the entire conclusion.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Disagree Captain, the big picture gives you context.

What context?
Where's the Gold Chart ?
Looks more like an Aussie Dollar chart to me
Not like my GOLD 3 Monthly Chart !

Sailing for GOLD ...../ 3 Months at a Time
ie Quarterly candlesticks just does not do it for me

 

[eskys]

Gold is down at the moment, our dollar down a tad, but EVN and NST are holding firm.......same thing was observed yesterday. I was wondering what was holding NST up yesterday. Is there something hidden that we cannot see? By the way, the technicals according to investing.com......................

Technical Summary​

Type	5 Min	15 Min	Hourly	Daily	Monthly
Moving Averages	Strong Sell	Sell	Sell	Sell	Sell
Technical Indicators	Strong Sell	Strong Sell	Strong Sell	Strong Sell	Strong Sell
Summary	Strong Sell	Strong Sell	Strong Sell	Strong Sell	Strong Sell

 

[DaveTrade]

It is a chart crime.

1. The chart is not adjusted for total return of the stock index or the negative carry cost for XAU or physical gold.
2. If you plan to time long trades in one asset based on a ratio chart, you better be willing and able to short the other leg of the ratio. Otherwise you are only betting on outperformance vs another asset, not absolute returns. See point 1 again.
3. The chart is obviously overfit and contains precisely 4 datapoints on which it bases the entire conclusion.

I don't try to read so much into this chart or expect it to be something that it's not. I like to look at markets from different angles and this chart is just showing a relationship that happened in the past. I don't think that anyone would trade from this chart alone, it's just another piece of information, and there are number of other unrelated pieces of information that indicate that gold could be turning north in the next couple of months.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

I'm not really sure why I can't stop watching this, I should sleep, but lol 2560