Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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I’d say up today and a leap further up tonight.
Don’t do your own research.
gg
Don’t do your own research.
gg
Gold Price - Where is it heading?
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wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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The perception is that rising interest rates are bad for POG.
Is perception reality? Or just perceptions and deceptions?
...and are we talking nominal or real interest rates?
It's been a long time since we've been in anything like this macro situation.
A bit of discussion here https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520772-rising-interest-rates-gold-perception-reality
Disclaimer: I hold
Is perception reality? Or just perceptions and deceptions?
...and are we talking nominal or real interest rates?
It's been a long time since we've been in anything like this macro situation.
A bit of discussion here https://seekingalpha.com/article/4520772-rising-interest-rates-gold-perception-reality
Disclaimer: I hold
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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It is very complicated, even more so when there are shorters and buyers on paper gold, options and futures, wars, famines, pestilence and pandemics .
I just go with the vibe.
@wayneL 's post makes much sense of the inflation, interest rate, POG triangle.
As for the rest, it is a matter of timing.
It will be interesting, of that, I have no doubt.
It is only money for some, unless you hold gold. It has outdone tulips.
gg
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wayneL
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Perception is reality most times.
Gunna look into the correlation over the long term a bit further when I get time.
What about sentiment? Is it as real as perception?
Garpal Gumnut
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One of the major factors, if not the major factor that POG is not sky high atm. is the presence of Crypto.
Crypto had overtaken gold as a "safe haven" for criminals such as,
One of my "vibe" elements is a sudden crash in crypto to restore gold to it's rightful place.
That is why I was suggesting to not panic on the retracement occurring in POG atm.
It is the vibe.
gg
Crypto had overtaken gold as a "safe haven" for criminals such as,
- associates of corrupt governments here and overseas benefitting from dodgy grants and insider deals,
- kidnappers,
- hackers,
- mafia,
- ndrangheta,
- drug and people smugglers.
One of my "vibe" elements is a sudden crash in crypto to restore gold to it's rightful place.
That is why I was suggesting to not panic on the retracement occurring in POG atm.
It is the vibe.
gg
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Guess I'll just keep posting these same chart ad infinitum on this thread
although recently :?
which way one thinks those jaws might close (or whether the relationship is permanently broken) is left as an exercise for the viewer...
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(the ILB data is not total return so the jaws are not as wide as the chart implies)
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Sean K
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Broken link Chaza.
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The down move in GLD looks like it's running out of steam but this market has a lot of work to do this week if it is to turn the trend around to the upside. Capitulation below the recent major support zone could the just what is required to do the job.
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Perception and reality are exactly what the 'establishment' are banking on: ie. that perception trumps reality.
The reality however is that physical premiums are growing daily as increasing numbers wake up to the paper price manipulation. Of course this is nothing new, it has been policy since 1944 and Bretton Woods.
Premiums have been an ever-present phenomena. Of course in 1971 the gold price completely broke free as it could no longer be suppressed.
Of course with Russia and China setting up new trading exchanges, it is only a matter of time that the free market price is discovered via communistic governments. Ironic.
The take home is that the presence of premiums is a good sign for the POG.
jog on
duc
Knobby22
Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast
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wayneL
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^^when articles like that come out, it is probably is good at buy signal as any.
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If you held gold at any point over the last 40 years in a diversified risk premia portfolio as an inflation hedge, you were wrong, but luckily you would have done quite well out of it anyway!
Why?
I direct your attention to MONEYBALL FOR MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY by Christopher Cole from Artemis Capital Management. My copy of the paper is watermarked so I can't share it here but easy to get a copy from their website.
Out of 30 tested alternative asset classes, gold (USD pricing) performed in top 2 position for the most useful diversifier and is much more accessible than the winner (active long vol).
I don't really think it ever was an inflation hedge, but it sure is a fantastic portfolio hedge.
All that said, 2022 has been one of the most inflationary years in decades for Australia and those with some gold in their portfolio would not have regretted it YTD, especially if able to do some tactical rebalancing along the way:
wayneL
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Chris Cole has done some fascinating work, especially that long vol aspect of his hawks and serpent paper (or whatever it was called). Thank for reminding me about it ?
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