Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[bean]

Overnight

GOLD STOCKS AND GOLD UP THE US MARKET UP

The big and bigger picture is still in place.

Over the past 6 months or so gold stocks and gold to a degree have been
following S&P500 (US markets in general)
I think I have shown you over the last 3 weeks that this is the case.

US Recession 2nd qtr this year? Oct – dec
Markets may react/correct up to 6 months in advance APRIL – JUNE.

Last year some analysis I read who are bearish re the above were still
calling DOW 13000 first
And to occur first half of the year JUNE or earlier

We have GOLD BEARS WHO ARE SAYING 30-40% CORRECTION 2-3months

Period - APRIL MAY JUNE

GOLD BOTTOM – MAY – JUNE
For a bottom to be in place a top must be in!!!!!!
Two – Three weeks before hand

Because we all know the gold indexes can fall hard and correct 30%
within a few weeks.

Also if market rallies – as I have shown gold stocks are following if
it
rises to much Gold and shares will turn bullish?

Also we have the US$ in place it has been bouncing arround its lows for
about 3-4 weeks.

Why you may ask has it not moved DROP/RALLY

If THE $ FALLS GOLD WILL RALLY - TRUE/FALSE.
It it falls puts Gold correction out?

But if and when it rallys it will be as an initial safe haven - as the
Market Crashes?
Has no other reason to rally?

That is why it is still where it is.
But it has been there for a long time so it is not going to stay there
for too much longer without making a move and a large one ???

If Gold stocks are going to drop 30-40% and it is goimg to be brought
about by the market falling?
The scenario I see for the market is a CRASH/SEVERE CORRECTION ?
Not a 5-10% correction ?

-- And everything will fall – except the $ which will rise ????

EVERYTHING IS IN PLACE – EXCEPT THE TOP ON THE DOW (US MARKETS)
WHEN DOES THE CORRECTION BEGIN WHEN THE FINAL PIECE IS IN PLACE?
1-5 DAYS ???

Note you may disagree completely with what I have mentioned.
You may agree or disagree in parts
The time frame for the start of the correction is shrinking
BUT THINK ABOUT IT.

I also use my own program on market and gold to give me an idea. Ialso
try to read into what the numbers are saying.

 

[Kauri]

Resisted the strong temptation to jump on gold on the last up bar, expecting a triangular W4 to develop?? (My absolute-bottom picking attempts are not faring too well lately i.e. forex and the Loonie).

 

[bean]

Gold Nearly $700 before $500-$600.

yes to call a crash you must have reasons and a time frame and why its going to be a crash or start a very severe correction and one which may be long lasting. Tonight a quick look at the futures saw gold up so knew straight away US markets were going to be up. CALL a TOP wednesday or thursday next week. What the DOW will get to 13650 give or take (1000 points) sorry one extra zero.

Posted this tonight on severe market correction for fun.
However it was not for fun. I see gold topping next Tuesday Wednesday or at very latest thursday at what price I do not know. But I think it is falling into place?
But I need one day at a time because it could be altered to what I am seeing and looking for. Could we possibly see almost 14000(not quiet) on the DOW by then????
Is this the complete blowoff? The end for the Bull on the DOW and like breaking the mirror seven years bad luck!!!!
And S#%T will hit the fan??

And what Gold bulls and every bear have been expecting for the last XX years.
http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1178290800.php

NEED MORE DATA!!!!
Is the top Tuesday or wednesday

 

[bean]

Tuesday or wednesday refers to US days.
But the markets will be up tonight, monday and more than likely Tuesday night
DO not be sucked in.

 

[BlueDaze]

Countdown...

Gold Nearly $700 before $500-$600.

I see gold topping next Tuesday Wednesday or at very latest Thursday at what price I do not know.

bean,

Tks for the heads-up. I will be holding on to my gold portfolio, and hope to add new/more bullion+HUI stocks if gold drops to the $500-600 zone. You don't think gold will fall below $500? If based on Fib support, there is strong support at the 50% retracement level of $488.

 

[Kauri]

Bean
Have you traded short yet on any of your analysis so far, or are you still waiting for the blow-off before putting your shorts on??

 

[CanOz]

This really powered up after the release of the job data, i suppose the rational being that the fed would not raise rates so gold would be a better place to be than the greenback.

Would have made a great intraday trade.

Cheers,

 

[bean]

To Blue Daze a brilliant chart it see what I may be seeing.
I do not short.
I am 100% cash at the moment except for silver bullion.
If I said I am not allowed to what stocks I want to buy and what price.
I am a silver bug first so
MMN I hope under 20 cents
I am a CTO last sold at 41 cents when Gold was US$640
I hope say 30cents
I have also held or bought and may look at them again
TRY my first gold @ about 50cents and LHG but no more once hedging out the door.
IGR,KMN,CRE? but I really would like some mid tiers who can expand there reserves or may be subject to takeove bids for the next leg up when it begins. I will only invest in max of two gold and two silver stocks. the remaining 20% is uranium or oil stocks
I have not been studying individual stocks over the last month brcause I have been focusing on this. To me what may be happening is a once in a lifetime opportunity of predicting a market crash. to see if my systems work
or give me a clue and years of reading and remembering numbers and facts work.
I want to make money on stocks (GOLD) but to see patterns unfolding is greater pressure weather it be bullish or bearish

 

[bean]

TRY @ 50 was when I first bought but have long since sold

 

[Kauri]

This really powered up after the release of the job data, i suppose the rational being that the fed would not raise rates so gold would be a better place to be than the greenback.

Would have made a great intraday trade.

Cheers,

If you follow Gartley or Pesavanto then it was a near perfect set-up, a bearish 2 I think from memory.

 

[BlueDaze]

Contrarian Sentiment Indicators

bean,

Next week's anticipated US market (and gold) crash may have to hold off for a little while more...

AAII Poll Shows Widespread Bearishness: Time To Buy
http://usmarket.seekingalpha.com/article/34520

AAII Sentiment: Now More Bearish After Market Rise
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/aaii-sentiment-now-more-bearish-after-market-rise-904.html

Btw, have you considered that the trigger for a world-wide market (and gold) crash may not be the US Dow/SPX but the Chinese Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSEC). SSEC is facing a multiple-year resistance point soon at around the 4189 level.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article838.html

 

[BlueDaze]

Gold, Silver, Uranium & Oil

I am 100% cash at the moment except for silver bullion. I am a silver bug first.

I will only invest in max of two gold and two silver stocks.

The remaining 20% is uranium or oil stocks.

I'm a gold bug (obviously) as I view gold as the only "honest money". Silver has lost its monetary qualities. But I must admit I also hold some small amount of silver bullion - greed got the better of me... If gold and gold stocks really fall hard, I'm keen to buy:

- Kinross (K.TO)
- GAM.TO (pure gold and silver producer in Mexico)
- Silver Wheaton (SLW.TO)

Also hold some uranium and oil stocks, mainly in Cameco (CCO.TO) and DML.TO

Hope to pick up Khan Resources (KRI.TO) if it falls to around the C$3.5 level.

 

[bean]

Right what is good when I have a question. Because it makes one re evaluate what you are doing and I may be under the illusion I am seeing that may actually not be happening it could be something different. I will try and explain as best as I can. I have spent the last 3 hours analysing putting in different variation etc

The first I am completely wrong.

Gold is ready to break out and the Dollar crash
With that I was left to wonder what the market would do Follow the US$ or follow gold.
I have shown that gold stocks and gold are following the market to a degree
I have also said that if the market falls gold stock will follow and gold would as well

The US $ is sitting near its lows so we would think it going to do something Rally/crash

There is no longer US$ and gold because we now have the market at a blow off top???
If I was just looking at US$ and Gold we would know one up one down
Gold is near US$700 a good break above it and it will turn bullish?

Monday M Tuesday T Wednesday W thusday TH
If markets up say M T W
My gold index turns bullish T or W
That Ski index gets a signal T or W (as I don’t subscribe this is one of two things it turns a buy however I think it mark a high)
Run pattern for his index marks a hight (I think) or very close to it.
GOLD if it rise M T W it will then be up 5 days in a row (not good) It generally falls on the sixth but it may only be one day. The up days have gone past five and has continued further on some occasions

I entered the Stock markets as rising M T W
I already know they are overbought but can still rise for ages. However I get a reading does not happen often a few times a year or when market may do a good advance and takes a breather.
These reading are extremely high.
Now that doe not mean a crash or it just means it needs a breather. It might be next day or a few days later it might drop less than 1% but only went back a few years but on one day it dropped nearly 4%


I have based the above on the DOW rising.
If I do it different I get things all over the place and the US$ gold and markets going in different directions!!!
The above is quite easy to tell if I am right or wrong.
A down day M or T and I will have to see if a different pattern is taking shape

Comments are good because it makes one think and drive drink.

Remember I am trying to also justify what I am seeing. If Monday is down say I have to at a different pattern.

And who in there right mind can pick what the market is going to do 4 days in a row
Oh Thursday that’s down.

 

[bean]

Futher to the above when I said my gold index would turn bullish.
I would not buy if gold is up the five days.
And if gold/gold indexs were to drop it would be nearly turning my index it back to bearish showing a false breakout?

 

[bean]

i now have the trigger
The Fed meets on wenesday on interest rates.
Every market is in place for there decision

Gold ready to break out
US$ ready to break down
And stock market making new highs into an overbought position.

Are they going to take a hardening stace???
_____________________________________
If they ease

Gold breaks higher ?
US$ collapases?
Market Goes higher?
But they (Central banks ) have lost control of Gold ?
And have lost control of the US$?
Then you have a domino effect on world Markets as ther currencies rise.
There stock Markets should fall?
Which would then bring the US market down as world markets go into red?
_______________________________________
A hardening stance or keeping the same

Brings the Market down?
Gold down?
And the US $ up?
And world markets down?

Gold on falling marks its bottom and rises breaking free from
The markets and more importantly the US$

------------------------------------

EVERYTHING IS ALINGED
Am I to BEARISH ?????
And to BULLISH FOR GOLD?????
But expect gold to drop and then break free

Is this the financial mess GOLD BULLS we have been expecting?

Is this the start of the FED - LOSING CONTROL
OR HAVE THEY LOST IT?????
---------==
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My main dilemma
I mentioned Gold up 5 days should drop.
But if it was coming from a low could rise more days
I don’t think last week was the low???

Does the stock market mon – wed have to rise on all of those those days???
I still think it does or does it drop one day?

Don’t have long to wait

 

[Kimosabi]

If the US Fed lowers Interest Rates, watch out, because the Bear has just crashed the Party.

 

[CanOz]

If the US Fed lowers Interest Rates, watch out, because the Bear has just crashed the Party.

hmmm, yeah i tend to agree, if the FOMC leaves rates the same we should see a slight increase in the POG, a slight drop in the dollar and the share markets shouldn't really be affected too much IMO. Most of the markets would have already priced this in by now.

A drop in the Fed rate would basically be an acknowledgement of a slumping economy in need of an injection really wouldn't it?

My bet is they keep them unchanged.

Cheers,

 

[Uncle Festivus]

If the US Fed lowers Interest Rates, watch out, because the Bear has just crashed the Party.

K-bots ,
I think rates will remain steady until there are signs that the US economy has well and truly tanked via the GDP data, which has yet to be seen.
So the $US may actually strengthen this week if rates stay the same, and gold may back off a bit more.

 

[Kimosabi]

K-bots ,.

hahaha, thats classic

 

[CanOz]

K-bots ,
I think rates will remain steady until there are signs that the US economy has well and truly tanked via the GDP data, which has yet to be seen.
So the $US may actually strengthen this week if rates stay the same, and gold may back off a bit more.

Not sure i agree UF that it will strengthen? Flat or down yes, but whats the motive to invest in the greenback if rates stay the same? Lately it seems like every bit of negative data to come out of the US has pushed the dollar down, the FED leaving rates unchanged would only confirm that those decisions were correct yes?

Cheers,