Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

After failing just below 1815, back below the psychological 1800 mark, atm. The eighth floor of the JPM building must have stepped in to switch their covers.

Once again, sideways bias until 1835 breached again, or that support line fails.

I think @DaveTrade 's chart is probably still on the bullish side.

 

[mullokintyre]

After failing just below 1815, back below the psychological 1800 mark, atm. The eighth floor of the JPM building must have stepped in to switch their covers.

Stopped reading the COT reports a while back, just sends my BP up.
I do not need any more convincing of the corruption of the US driven PM market.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Stopped reading the COT reports a while back, just sends my BP up.
I do not need any more convincing of the corruption of the US driven PM market.
Mick

They will decide to switch long at some point, once they've earned enough with the side-down bias. I think I read somewhere they made $2b trading PMs last year. The glory of a paper-digital market.

 

[mullokintyre]

They will decide to switch long at some point, once they've earned enough with the side-down bias. I think I read somewhere they made $2b trading PMs last year. The glory of a paper-digital market.

2bn!!
That wouldn't even pay the fines the Ba$tard$ get every year from the SEC, FOMC and sundry other FLAS and TLAs.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

I am a td confused.
The gold price in AUD terms is comfortably up above 2500 mark again, as a combination of a slight rise in gold in the US and a fall in the AUD v USD.
And yet, virtually all gold stocks have been hammered today.
Is this a setup or what?
Mick

 

[Sean K]

I am a td confused.
The gold price in AUD terms is comfortably up above 2500 mark again, as a combination of a slight rise in gold in the US and a fall in the AUD v USD.
And yet, virtually all gold stocks have been hammered today.
Is this a setup or what?
Mick

It's an interesting phenomenon isn't it. Someone has probably done a study on whether stocks follow their individual fundamentals and tech support, or just go with the general market. There's probably tipping points where they go one way or the other. Richard Thaler might have researched it.

 

[Joules MM1]

for the long-only crowd

 

[mullokintyre]

It will be interesting to see what happens when the OZ gold producers bring out their quarterlies early next year.
Given the gold price for the December quarter has been mostly above 2500 for the quarter, the free cash generation should get a boos for all of them, except for those who have embarked on big capex or are finding their costs rising as fast or faster than the gold price.
Maybe some short term profits to be made.
Mick

 

[Sean K]

Holding above 1800 is positive for a potential break to the upside with a higher low but this channel will be hard to get out of. Breaking 1815 to the upside looks important. Needs a higher high above that mark.

 

[Joules MM1]

TradingView Chart

See more on tradingview.com

www.tradingview.com

the above does carry (lag-time/phase) a correlation - causation - maybe - maybe not !
US inflation scrip hat-tip to @NeoButane TV




that large daily triangle (horizontal bottom) thingy looking better as a sell than a buy

 

[Joules MM1]

this is one of those "so what could this story be saying"
doubt its a function of the tracking fund, rather the participants are anticipating the underlying
if that's true(?) then what does that say about the most recent activity ?

AMEX:GCC Chart Image by traderjazzhands

www.tradingview.com

$GCC v $CRB

GCC is a long-only commodity strategy providing actively-managed exposure to four broad commodity sectors: Energy, Agriculture, Industrial Metals, and Precious Metals via related futures contracts.

 

[rederob]

Here's where POG went in 2021:

A quick aside: On POG's first day of trading in 2021 it jumped over $45 from its 2020 end year closing price. That bounce was very short lived!
The adage for POG taking the stairs up and the lift down could hardly be clearer in 2021. On 3 occasions it crashed through trading ranges in excess of $100 in 3 short days before recovering.
POG's chart has worked itself into a wedge throughout the year with a series of lower highs and higher lows as the year drew to a close.
Clearly there will be a pattern breakout and my thoughts favour an upside based on continuing inflation worries that have barely worked their way into global markets.
Pushing the long term trend envelope out to 2023 we see this:

 

[Sean K]

Broken 1815 indicating short term upward bias. Still well in the long term pennant going sideways. Hitting a little resistance at 1830 now. Been a good bounce off the bottom support.

 

[Ann]

Now for the final quarter for gold on the quarterly chart. Crikey that was a nail-biting finish. So many times I was tempted to yell 'timber'. It kept falling off and getting back on that rising support line over the quarter.

It is now riding in a rising wedge pattern which makes me think further down the track there will be a bit of a fall out below the wedge but as I said on the chart as long as it stays above the $1780 level it should move higher after a quick re-test of 1780 support. May only test the 200dsma which the POG now has its head just above (not shown).

 

[Sean K]

That 'little resistance' at 1830 now turning into the Great Wall....

 

[Sean K]

Gold has lost it's short term upward trend. Broken a couple of support lines. Needs to hold above the the horizontal / 1790 ish level or it's more sideways / down hill.

 

[DannyB0000]

Gold is $1788 USD heading South, not good for Gold shares. Crypto is being sold off as well.

 

[Sean K]

Gold is $1788 USD heading South, not good for Gold shares. Crypto is being sold off as well.

Held on to the support line, as you would expect. Looks tenuous though. 1790 ish looks like a bot play.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Held on to the support line, as you would expect. Looks tenuous though. 1790 ish looks like a bot play.

View attachment 135400

AFR article is bearish on gold which must make it a buy.

gg

 

[Sean K]

AFR article is bearish on gold which must make it a buy.

gg

They heard you GG.

Bulls and bears are trading support and resistance lines at the moment. JP Morgan undoubtably doing both!

I would love to be a fly on the wall of their daily strategy meetings.