Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[wayneL]

My crystal ball prognostications for what they are worth:

I still see the debt market blowing the fark up at some point in the not-too-distant future.

Of course this is bullish for precious metals. But the typical course of events is a hard sell off, as cash comes out of all assets to meet margin calls and what not.

I've already got a crapper load of pm's, much of which at which I considered to be minimum value at the time... circa 1200 for gold, but have been conservatively adding to since then.

But I also have a war chest of cash and if my hypothesis proves correct I will become irresponsibly long on gold silver and platinum. (Not a holder of platinum at the moment but seriously considering it at this hypothesised juncture).

Fwiw

 

[finicky]

^^ Same crystal ball

 

[mullokintyre]

kinda surprised that some of the Oz gold stocks did not go up today,
POG is up 35 bucks as the AUD has gone down.
At 2525 , it is well above the sort of prices seen last quarter.
Timing gold sales will be important.
mick

 

[Sean K]

kinda surprised that some of the Oz gold stocks did not go up today,
POG is up 35 bucks as the AUD has gone down.
At 2525 , it is well above the sort of prices seen last quarter.
Timing gold sales will be important.
mick

The majority did, but a lot just went with the scaredy cats jumping with the lemmings.

I expected the XGD to stop in the blue circle but extended correction to the bottom of the current channel. Momentum is a concern.

edit: system won't let me put up the chart. Wait, out.

 

[Telamelo]

AUD Gold price @ $2,515 +1.09% overnight whilst Oil smashed -13.04% is "good news" for our Goldie's as reduced energy costs means higher cash flow $$ margins

Lower energy costs are the single most important factor for Gold miner's along with rising AUD Gold price.

P.S. Glad I "topped up" on WMC, OGC and SLR last week

 

[Sean K]

Jordan Roy Byrne was pretty much tipping this. He seemed very lukewarm on the chance of it breaking through 1900. He's a good follow for remaining sobre and patient about gold.
Needn't stop us investing in A$ goldies though.

His latest on Kitco.

Interesting back analysis on gold linked to Fed rate hikes:

 

[Sean K]

For the gold double bottom to be in we can't afford the first significant higher low to be beaten, IMO. So, fingers crossed this second higher low being established holds for another leg up.

 

[rederob]

POG depends on perspective ATM.
Here's the "bottom's up" - based on a 4-hourly chart:

And now the daily perspective, which is "top down":

 

[Sean K]

POG depends on perspective ATM.

Agree, there's definitely a medium term sideways down from the high, then the short term potential start of the break up. We needed to hold above $1835 to maintain the potential break up. That is now going to be tough to break on the way back up, as you indicate.

 

[Sean K]

Kitko can be a bit bullish on PMs at times, but this one takes the cake.

 

[StockyGuy]

hopefully not $500 gold and $10 silver But no one REALLY knows what will happen, do they? Hence, the principle of diversification.

 

[DannyB0000]

Kitko can be a bit bullish on PMs at times, but this one takes the cake.

View attachment 133704

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In the 70’s Gold went from $35 to $850 by the end of the decade so anything’s possible.

 

[divs4ever]

Hope ya right, but i have been waiting for 20 years for JPM to get collared on the COT activity, and with the current weak CFTC regime, I just can't see that changing any time soon.
Mick

JPM has been 'collared ' several times each time it has been a slap with a damp lettuce leaf , what really needs to happen is say six ( or more ) senior management go to jail for 10 years ( or more ) AND a REAL financial penalty , something that wipes out three or four years total trading profits ( on all commodities/derivatives )

but will that happen in my lifetime , probably not

 

[divs4ever]

hopefully not $500 gold and $10 silver But no one REALLY knows what will happen, do they? Hence, the principle of diversification.

those prices are NOT a bad thing IF you have cash AND can get physical delivery ( it can be amazing the waiting times when gold is really cheap )

 

[StockyGuy]

those prices are NOT a bad thing IF you have cash AND can get physical delivery ( it can be amazing the waiting times when gold is really cheap )

Yep, and I do agree it would look like a "golden" opportunity... but it doesn't mean it won't halve again after that and never even return to break even within the buyer's life time.

You're viewing a drop to those levels as some temporary aberration - whereas it could mean a fundamental re-evaluation of the worth of the precious metals.

(I wonder if something like this happens to Bitcoin, would I buy in? Say it dropped to 20k USD would I view to it as the opportunity of a lifetime...or merely the chance to be one of the last patsies holding the bag as the whole retarded concept sinks like the Titanic into permanent oblivion. Personally I think I'd steer clear of any crypto "bargains".)

Unsurprisingly, as I think most here are, I am definitely bullish on gold price. I don't even dismiss the numbers in that article as such - it's just that predictions for a decade into the future aren't very useful now are they? It's sorta anyone's guess territory. The "prophet" is often retired, moved on, dead, or at the least everyone's forgotten he/she made the predictions (he'll remind them if he got it right lol).

 

[Sean K]

Unsurprisingly, as I think most here are, I am definitely bullish on gold price. I don't even dismiss the numbers in that article as such - it's just that predictions for a decade into the future aren't very useful now are they? It's sorta anyone's guess territory. The "prophet" is often retired, moved on, dead, or at the least everyone's forgotten he/she made the predictions (he'll remind them if he got it right lol).

Agree, in a decade the World could change dramatically. Might be using a Chinese digital currency as the World currency by then and gold is just bling for rappers.

But, I'm betting on the status quo for now.

I'd be very happy if this happened in this decade:

In the 70’s Gold went from $35 to $850 by the end of the decade so anything’s possible.

What would that make gold in todays prices?

 

[Ann]

I cannot vouch for this inflation-adjusted chart, I put it here simply for your interest @Sean K

"On this chart, I increased, corrected the historical gold price with the US consumer price index (CPIAUCSL/260.33). Calculating the value of the past gold prices on the actual price level. (Inflation-adjusted gold price.)

The result is, the 2011 all-time high in the gold price, by approximately 1,911 USD, is 2,204 USD worth on the actual price level, today. And the January 1980 highs, near $900 is $2,912 worth in today’s dollars!

Of course, that means nothing for the future, doesn’t guarantee any further price movements. But, if we take into account the difference between the present and future value of money, it shows that the price of gold has not actually reached a new peak this year. (Although, there are many arguments why this should happen. And the opposite, too.) The actual level of cold seems to be less scary to me."

 

[divs4ever]

i don't consider myself as bullish on gold , more ultra-bearish on the US Dollar ( and other fiat currencies )

i have seen the rare comparisons to say gold and the average US home ( and that isn't so flattering for gold currently , but then maybe that home is of lesser quality than decades ago , so maybe just blah for a well constructed home )

while gold is the high profile commodity don't neglect silver , copper , platinum , rice , salt and many others

i expect Central Banks to do even more crazy things to make the currencies and bonds look strong at the expense of gold and silver ( maybe even invest in cryptos to distract from the enduring value of precious metals ) they have already tried buying bonds , corporate debt , mortgages , stocks and ETFs , and i can't see the Fed adding a barn for prime stud cattle )

i would be watching the 'take-home prices' and availability of gold and silver rather than the market prices which are most likely manipulated as least as much as the comparison currency

there was an old Ronnie Barker sketch about how cheap his prices were in his shop , but all the specials were out of stock and he had no idea when the products would arrive ( very much like the current futures market )

 

[Ann]

there was an old Ronnie Barker sketch about how cheap his prices were in his shop , but all the specials were out of stock and he had no idea when the products would arrive ( very much like the current futures market )

Hmmm just like Woolies as well!

 

[Telamelo]

AUD Gold price shot up overnight to $2,546 +2.15%

I'm banking/betting on it reaching $3,000+ reason am fully loaded/invested in WMC, SLR & OGC as such Aussie Gold producer's would be making insane cash flow $$ margins if this eventuates.

Bigger player's like NCM, EVN & NST would rocket much higher as well.

https://goldbroker.com/charts/gold-price/aud