Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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I was just revising my Elliott Wave chart to reflect this latest impulse, to show a downleg was underway.
Thwarted by more madness:
pFy793XN.png
When will it end?
 
Further increases in price overnight to another record high before tailing off in recent hours:
O7NzYghY.png
Near-term support is $1978, but rather weak given what we know about retraces. Next level is pegged around $1810, so that's a big come down if it happens.
I defer to precedents when we reach stages like this. That tells me this gold bull still has years to run.
 
rederob said:
BHmhiJ2D.png
Click to expand...
A month ago I was heralding the probable breakthrough of $1800 resistance and wondered what algorithms would do, given there was only blue sky ahead.
That has since been answered, with $2000 being absolutely smashed through, and today POG briefly hitting $2075 before taking another breather:
57IUfVRr.png
On a separate front, few gold producers are reacting to POG's stellar rise, but I expect this to change once most post their results over the coming month.
 
Below is POG's 10-year track record: a gold medal run to $2020 olympics and beyond:
J7GnBSA6.png
Just remember that from the August 2011 record high to end December - 4 month - gold tumbled almost $400.
So while it's nice to see gold rocketing higher, the scale of its retrace can be equally devastating.
I personally can't see such a catastrophic decline this time around because in 2011 we were several years past the worst, while right now we remain in the thick of it, economically speaking.
 
Worth noting the correlation between the USD:AUD and the gold price too.

In AUD, gold hasn't actually changed that much. The USD has just fallen off a cliff.
 
Rosscoe62 said:
A healthy retracement in the gold futures with the news below & a bounce in the USD.Further gold buying opportunities not that far away again, it’s a waiting game - patience x patience .....

https://www.barchart.com/story/futu...expected-economic-data-spark-long-liquidation
Click to expand...
USD gold price down $35 to $2035 however because of a .007 drop in AUD against USD, AUD gold price is only down 18cents closing at $2843.80 AUD

IMO a good healthy retrace in the USD gold price. Whether it falls further off recent highs or not, I believe we will see a considerably higher gold price in the future.

Also Aussie gold miners have been treading water over the last few days, IMO waiting for some pull back after the spectacular rise over the last 2 weeks. However the AUD gold price holding the line overnight is very positive for them and their respective bottom lines.

Aussie gold producers are very profitable at these current record gold prices!

Cheers tela
 
Rosscoe62 said:
A healthy retracement in the gold futures with the news below & a bounce in the USD.Further gold buying opportunities not that far away again, it’s a waiting game - patience x patience .....
Click to expand...
Agreed - patience is now more important than ever, as the ride down might cause many to jump ship:
GKgbj89O.png
During the past 24 hours POG dipped $60 below its $2075 record high, before rallying in the last 3 hours prior to closing the week a shade under $2035.
My takeaway from the week's action is that irrespective of the retrace that's underway, 2021 will close out with a significantly higher record price than we just achieved.
 
Yeah there's seasonality to consider - AU's going into summer (meaning more economic activity) and US is going into winter (meaning the opposite).

If nothing changes, I'm expecting the AUD to hit close to 90c by end of year. The question is whether gold runs more/as a net positive against it.

If you have time on your side then you can play the market(s) and only cash your USD holdings out when the exchange rate drops back down but that's not going to be for a while yet. Meanwhile, here I am having all my U.S denominated gains KO'd by the exchange rate movement. This makes me pretty flat if I was to convert back now, but I'm in for the long term, so not so much of an issue.

I'll see if my terminal allows me to plot the AUD against the gold spot price (or just gold in AUD). Will update when I've got something.
 
over9k said:
Yeah there's seasonality to consider - AU's going into summer (meaning more economic activity) and US is going into winter (meaning the opposite).

If nothing changes, I'm expecting the AUD to hit close to 90c by end of year. The question is whether gold runs more/as a net positive against it.

If you have time on your side then you can play the market(s) and only cash your USD holdings out when the exchange rate drops back down but that's not going to be for a while yet. Meanwhile, here I am having all my U.S denominated gains KO'd by the exchange rate movement. This makes me pretty flat if I was to convert back now, but I'm in for the long term, so not so much of an issue.

I'll see if my terminal allows me to plot the AUD against the gold spot price (or just gold in AUD). Will update when I've got something.
Click to expand...
This chart covering the past 10 years might be helpful:iRT2hleV.png
 
Here we go:
sfdhfdhfgdhfgdh.jpg
GOLD australia (an etf that sells tenths of an ounce) vs GLD united states (which is also an etf that sells in tenths).

Exchange rate difference in the past 3 months:

asdgfadsgadsgagads.jpg

AUD's pulled 13% against the USD but there's only a 10 percentage point difference in the price.

1/1.13=0.88

0.88*1.18=1.04

vs

1/1=1

1*1.09=1.09


Significantly better off holding it in AUD ;)
 
An interesting read:

"There appears to be no way out for the bullion banks deteriorating $53bn short gold futures positions ($38bn net) on Comex. An earlier attempt between January and March to regain control over paper gold markets has backfired on the bullion banks."

"An awful lot of gold bulls are going to be disappointed when their unallocated bullion bank holdings turn to dust in the coming months — perhaps it’s a matter of a few weeks, perhaps only days — and synthetic ETFs will also blow up. The systemic demolition of paper gold and silver markets is a predictable catastrophe in the course of the collapse of fiat money’s purchasing power, for which the evidence is mounting. It is set to drive gold and silver much higher, or more correctly put, fiat currencies much lower."

(https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/bullion-banks-have-no-way-out-big-gold-shorts)
 
grah33 said:
the gold miners went down with the gfc crash 07
Click to expand...

Sure they did. I still have plenty of cash on hand; I am not going all in, nowhere near it.

The gold and silver stocks that I am looking at are:

- little to no debt
- have plenty of cash in the bank
- have a decent size ore reserve
- are in production or on a path to production

As for my current holdings, I am confident that they will make it through the volatility, if it comes. I am playing the long game; up to a decade; so happy to take a few positions now. If they get hit, I will have cash on hand to buy more at lower levels.
 
Last edited:
Everyone are getting the jitters about the lack of action on stimulus.

Futures are already very green after yesterday's bloodbath though.
 
Gold is due for a correction. Every tinpot company with an ASX listing is pegging rubbish tips and doing a bloody webinar.

Where the price goes is moot. Just go with it!

gg
 

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