Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Uncle Festivus]

Gordon, at what point and price would entice you to buy, bearing in mind that possibly once it is apparent to the general population that the cb's don't actually have a clue, that some sizeable gains in gold won't already have taken place? Interesting to hear your thoughts.

As to gold equities, there has been a very trade-able bounce off oversold lows and is the best sector so far this year. And yes, their prices do not reflect the higher margin that is being attained from the price in AU terms and cost efficiencies (and the oil price).

Although could be some profit taking on the $40 hair cut today - a buy opportunity?

 

[Gordon7]

Gordon, at what point and price would entice you to buy, bearing in mind that possibly once it is apparent to the general population that the cb's don't actually have a clue, that some sizeable gains in gold won't already have taken place? Interesting to hear your thoughts.

As to gold equities, there has been a very trade-able bounce off oversold lows and is the best sector so far this year. And yes, their prices do not reflect the higher margin that is being attained from the price in AU terms and cost efficiencies (and the oil price).

Although could be some profit taking on the $40 hair cut today - a buy opportunity?

Good question Uncle F.

I don't for one minute believe I will get in at the bottom or at the most opportune time. I may most likely scale in. I'll be watching Gold in particular (would love to see new lows and a washout), the bond markets and Europe (firstly) to capitulate.

Should I truely miss the bottom then I have to be prepared to join the already moving train. Too many variable moving parts.

In the near term though and even according to my own chart analysis I can see a potential opportunity for a tradeable bounce. My dotted line in the chart below is critical to this. I just don't like any signal at this stage though forming within the 2 year down sloping channel.

 

[Bintang]

Good question Uncle F.

I don't for one minute believe I will get in at the bottom or at the most opportune time. I may most likely scale in. I'll be watching Gold in particular (would love to see new lows and a washout), the bond markets and Europe (firstly) to capitulate.

Gordon, when you do buy are you paying with AUD or USD?
I've had this type of discussion previously with Ann.
For me personally, the USD price of gold is irrelevant.
Right now is not such a good time to buy using AUD and my next entry will have to wait until the AUD/USD exchange rate heads back up to around 0.90

 

[zac]

Gordon, when you do buy are you paying with AUD or USD?
I've had this type of discussion previously with Ann.
For me personally, the USD price of gold is irrelevant.
Right now is not such a good time to buy using AUD and my next entry will have to wait until the AUD/USD exchange rate heads back up to around 0.90

Im surprised no one talks about currency hedging, people seem to think its difficult.

AUDUSD at 0.90? Do you have a view of when that would be?
Im not sure it would happen anytime soon and when I say soon, matter of years.

 

[qldfrog]

AUDUSD at 0.90? Do you have a view of when that would be?
Im not sure it would happen anytime soon and when I say soon, matter of years.

or decades

 

[zac]

or decades

nah, the USD will have collapsed by then

 

[Bintang]

AUDUSD at 0.90? Do you have a view of when that would be?
Im not sure it would happen anytime soon and when I say soon, matter of years.

I think months rather than years – depending on how long it takes the USD gold price to get past $1400.
See chart.

 

[Gordon7]

Gordon, when you do buy are you paying with AUD or USD?
I've had this type of discussion previously with Ann.
For me personally, the USD price of gold is irrelevant.
Right now is not such a good time to buy using AUD and my next entry will have to wait until the AUD/USD exchange rate heads back up to around 0.90

Hi Bintang,

The investment I have in mind will be in Australian Gold stocks through the ASX but may also consider a small investment of US Gold stocks on the US market through my IB account.

In my opinion, whether purchasing or holding Australian gold stocks in $A, the $USD price is still relevant to some extent and here's my reasoning. For the most part gold whether traded as spot or in the futures market is valued in $USD terms. Countries with a different currency will then convert the gold price into their own local currency. What makes the $USD price important in my mind is the sentiment attached to whether the price is rising or falling in the traded markets. This is why we can have Australian miners undervalued even in $A terms when gold is falling and the opposite may well be the case when gold is in a bull market. Alternatively, you could think of it as the stock market getting ahead of the trend. This is my opinion anyway.

At this stage I have no idea where the $A will be in 6 months let alone 1 or more years. There are so many interacting variables (interest rates being just one of them) that will come into play who knows when in the future, that I would be guessing. So I am unlikely to take this into account or hedge. If I am correct in my assessment that gold will return to a bull market lasting years - its going to take that long to unwind from the mess the central banks have created, then the returns that can be generated will more than offset any loses due to currency movements, by a long shot.

 

[gordon2007]

Slightly off topic here, whilst I rarely post any more on here I just want to be clear 'gordon7' should not be confused with being me.

 

[Gordon7]

Slightly off topic here, whilst I rarely post any more on here I just want to be clear 'gordon7' should not be confused with being me.

It's a good thing then that I didn't add my postcode to my name, because I'd be 'gordon2017'

 

[Bintang]

It's a good thing then that I didn't add my postcode to my name, because I'd be 'gordon2017'

Strewth, two Gordons and a postcode. This could be a portent. Maybe 2017 is the year that gold reaches $10,000/oz

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Unfortunately for us we don't get to back the truck up one last time as the $AU holds $1500? Although still tempting at this price as compared to what is coming?

It is interesting to note the 'perceptions' going on here - the perception that the US is recovering, if you believe the jobs numbers. The perception that there will be a US rate hike 'very soon'. The flight to the US dollar and all that entails ie smashing US exporters and importing the dreaded (according to academics and bobble heads) deflation.

And yet again we get another step towards the time when the truth will be revealed to all......and the fiat ponzi is exposed. For equities, it looks like the margin calls are kicking in, let's see who can hold their nerve this time and BTFD, yet again?

 

[notting]

Lack of Grexit on Friday seems to have had a bit of a dampener on the gold price.
It's only been put off for 3 weeks though and the slippery eals look like they are going to try to pay the interest so they get to put the hand in the kitty again and at least look like they had a go before they get booted out.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Gold equities outperforming.

The rest have not discounted the inevitable? καμένο τοστ.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Another month, another kick.....

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Another long consolidation for gold......

 

[AverageJoe]

Another long consolidation for gold......

View attachment 62760

Is it showing something?

 

[explod]

Is it showing something?

Bottom in in my view. China's accumulation and talk of yaun backing interesting. Lot of louder press on gold and silver price manipulation another positive. Bonds looking dodgy, countries going under with debt, Greece default seems athand. So interesting times.

My accumulation of physical has been a long road and feel fortunate to have had such low prices, particularly for pre 46 silver coins.

Anyhow, we will see.

 

[Ann]

So far my take on the POG appears to be down looking at the charts. The long term trending support is now acting as a resistance line. The shorter term overhead trending resistance coming from September 2012 remains as a resistance yet to be broken through. The $US1000 support level is still acting as a floor (chart to follow).

The POG in Australian dollars isn't at all exciting either, in fact it is currently around the same price it was in July 2011, not a great investment as you get no divie payments and inflation has marched on a wee bit as well. Mind you I am sure it is a comfort for any Aussie prepers out there, they can bury it with their stash of .22 rifles, shotguns and 5000 cans of baked beans!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

So far my take on the POG appears to be down looking at the charts. The long term trending support is now acting as a resistance line. The shorter term overhead trending resistance coming from September 2012 remains as a resistance yet to be broken through. The $US1000 support level is still acting as a floor (chart to follow).

The POG in Australian dollars isn't at all exciting either, in fact it is currently around the same price it was in July 2011, not a great investment as you get no divie payments and inflation has marched on a wee bit as well. Mind you I am sure it is a comfort for any Aussie prepers out there, they can bury it with their stash of .22 rifles, shotguns and 5000 cans of baked beans!

The Aussie price is making a nice margin for producers, still not reflected in their share prices though?

Cash in hand pays no div or interest either, yet it's purchasing power is constantly being eroded.

Some more lines on charts? The current price action would be flattening the poly, possibly for another multi year bottom. Shorter term a nice 'bottom of the bowl' as well as an inverted H&S formation.....these things take time?

If gold was going to tank below $1100 then it would have by now with all the 'recoveries' going on around the world for the last 8 years? And they are still jawboning about when the first rate rise will happen because of all the great data? While ever the globe vacillates around zero GDP (not that it's a reliable indicator) they haven't got the balls to increase rates to pop all the bubbles......