Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[notting]

So maybe it was the Swiss buying ahead of the game.
Everyone's expecting QE EURO and there is deflation all over the joint.
With petrol and commodities slumping it's still gonna be hard bending deflation into inflation.
Deflation is not good for Gold, I suspect people may be forgetting that at this point.
Still the uncertainties are enough to be giving it a boost.
I was ahead on my shorts yesterday so closed them out today for small losses and multiplied one by 4 at the top of this mornings trading which will get me out almost loss free.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Deflation is not good for Gold, I suspect people may be forgetting that at this point.

I think we've moved on from that theory, more about currency maintaining values now? Preserving your wealth when banks are forcing you to spend by applying negative interest rates, which was the other, mostly ignored, part of the SNB edict.

What should be remembered too is that what's happening now is multi generational, multi decade structural deficiencies coming to the fore, where the central bankers have applied their usual fix but without the usual response - forcing consumption with debt created by fiat with nothing but blind faith as backing?

Gold is a no brainer, but even the no brainers can't comprehend even this?

I've been buying silver coins lately.....

 

[waterbottle]

I think we've moved on from that theory, more about currency maintaining values now? Preserving your wealth when banks are forcing you to spend by applying negative interest rates, which was the other, mostly ignored, part of the SNB edict.

What should be remembered too is that what's happening now is multi generational, multi decade structural deficiencies coming to the fore, where the central bankers have applied their usual fix but without the usual response - forcing consumption with debt created by fiat with nothing but blind faith as backing?

Gold is a no brainer, but even the no brainers can't comprehend even this?

I've been buying silver coins lately.....

Why is gold a no-brainer? Why not bitcoin?

 

[explod]

Why is gold a no-brainer? Why not bitcoin?

If things really fold as I believe, bitcoin would go down the cyber viod to.

Who do you really think controls the internet?

Yep, silver coins for me too.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Why is gold a no-brainer? Why not bitcoin?

If we are to be totally pragmatic with what is happening in the world today then it's not likely that trends will reverse any time soon, those trends being political impotence/corruption, environmental unsustainability, geopolitical/religious instability, and most relevant of all, financial/price manipulation. The only thing holding it all together at the moment is money printing by the central banks. The SNB just folded! More collateral damage will be unveiled in the weeks ahead? Give it a few days after EuroQE is announced and the Dax will be the short of the century......

Can't comment on bitcoin?

 

[Bintang]

Why is gold a no-brainer? Why not bitcoin?

If things really fold as I believe, bitcoin would go down the cyber viod to.

Can't comment on bitcoin?

One of my guiding rules is to keep a very watchful eye on what the Chinese are doing. If they were buying bitcoin the way they are buying gold I might get interested.

 

[Bintang]

Why can't they pay their creditors?
They have just printed about 1.5 trillion and the US$ is higher on just about everything!

I only just spotted the question you posted a while back.
I feel like I am stating the obvious but is’nt it simply the case that the USA will be able to pay its creditors only for as long as those creditors remain willing to accept the USA’s fiat as payment?

Personally I am 100% convinced that a day is coming when all those creditors will stop accepting USA fiat. I just don’t know when.

My

 

[explod]

I only just spotted the question you posted a while back.
I feel like I am stating the obvious but is’nt it simply the case that the USA will be able to pay its creditors only for as long as those creditors remain willing to accept the USA’s fiat as payment?

Personally I am 100% convinced that a day is coming when all those creditors will stop accepting USA fiat. I just don’t know when.

My

Very close in my view and summed up well by Bill Holter overnight:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1421424300.php

 

[CanOz]

Gold would be an easy trade to 1300 from here i reckon, look for a bracket there and an opportunity to enter a trade....be it higher or lower again....Not trying to predict, just anticipate

 

[boliu]

if AUS is heading 75c, then gold is heading $960

 

[Uncle Festivus]

if AUS is heading 75c, then gold is heading $960

AUS is 82.3
Gold is $1560

So if AUS is 75 then gold will fall $600?

Why?

 

[Bintang]

AUS is 82.3
Gold is $1560
So if AUS is 75 then gold will fall $600?
Why?

The combination of 75 and $600 certainly looks like an unlikely outcome, considering where things are currently.
(See following chart) Note the different patterns before and after the start of Quantitative Easing in the USA.
The plotted data begins from August 1984.

 

[notting]

I think it's probably done.
It did pretty much nothing last night even though the ECB came up with the goods.
Further a strong US$ is usually very bad for gold on this occasion gold has priced in the ECB move and gold stocks in the US that I watch were nothing to slightly negative.
If it's true, what they all concluded as the US QE was still in full swing, that Gold wasn't being used as a hedge against inflation or money printing then it could fall off a cliff from here unless there is some fairly scarey political uncertainty.
Why? because EU printing is only going to make the US$ stronger and gold is measured in US$ for one.
Looking for a spike and top out this morning.

Stocks of companies that dig up gold have been among the world's top
performers. As of the close of trading on Wednesday, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index was
up about 25% so far this year, compared with a roughly 1% drop in the S&P 500. Spot
gold was up nearly 9% year to date here on Thursday.
Investors use stocks as a way to double down, betting both that gold will rally and
that the individual companies will perform well as they benefit from lower costs,
including cheaper energy prices.
But many money managers say they have now pared back their holdings or stepped to
the sidelines. Drivers of gains such as uncertainty in the global economy and volatile
moves in currencies are set to fade, they say.
"The current hot topics of European quantitative easing and the Swiss franc
will become history in a week's time, and gold will top out," said Neil
Gregson, a fund manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, overseeing US$2.5 billion in
natural-resources investments. "When it does, I think these gold stocks are going to
fall back very aggressively."
Mr. Gregson was buying gold throughout all of last year. The metal now accounts for
about 20% of his portfolio, up from about 13%, but he says he has stopped buying and is
waiting before taking his next move.
"Gold is certainly at the forefront of our discussions because every day it
doesn't fall, the sector seems to go up another percent or two," he said.
"The thing is, it's now a trade--a very crowded trade."
Investors like Mr. Gregson say the rally is running out of steam given the recovery
in the U.S. economy and the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest
rates. The metal is typically bought in times of distress; it generates no yield, so
increases in rates on safe securities such as U.S. Treasury debt tend to weigh on the
price.
Gold rallied to a five-month high of US$1,305 an ounce earlier this week, but then
pulled back below US$1,295. Thursday morning in New York, spot gold rose as high as $1305
in response to confirmation that the European Central Bank will buy large amounts of
government debt to pump money into the economy in order to create growth, boost prices
and forestall deflation.
Some investors see gold as a better store of value than currencies or government
bonds during periods of monetary easing.
A benchmark index for gold-mining stocks in Australia--second only to China among
gold-producing countries--has risen 28% since the start of 2015, but slipped Thursday
after reaching a 10-month high intraday earlier.
Last week, money flowed out of the world's biggest gold exchange-traded
funds--typically considered to be less reactive to swings in price--implying some fatigue
among investors.
Many fund managers say they can't see a more substantial rally in gold stocks
without a further jump in gold prices.
Ric Ronge, senior resources fund manager at Pengana Capital, said he expects the
market to become increasingly volatile after the sharp rally of recent weeks.
"Now is certainly the opportunity to trade it around a little bit: Buy when
they're low and sell when they're higher," said Mr. Ronge. "It is
going to be a bumpy ride."
To be sure, the continued rise in gold-mining indices suggests few investors are
dumping shares in any big way. After years spent in the shadow of gold, as investors
chose to buy the metal itself, rather than firms that produce it, miners last year sprung
back into favor, driven by stronger earnings and cuts to mining costs, and helped toward
year-end by falling oil prices.
In Australia, investors became increasingly upbeat on the sector after a fall in the
local currency meant miners were earning more for each ounce of gold they produced.
"I remain positive on the sector in the short- to medium-term," but
cashing in on some of the profits made during the rally is "a logical step,"
said Market Matters investment advisor Alexander Aguilan. The company advises private
investors and self-managed pension funds on behalf of Shaw Stockbroking, one of
Australia's largest independent stockbrokers.
He said he has cut his holdings in gold stocks, including Australia's largest
listed gold miner, Newcrest Mining Ltd.
Others are simply keeping their powder dry.
"It has had a great run, but you really have to wonder if it's
sustainable," said Matt Riordan, a Sydney-based portfolio manager at Paradice
Investment Management, which has a total of around 8 billion Australian dollars (US$6.5
billion) in assets under management. He has held his exposure steady throughout, but says
he's now "very cautious" on the outlook for the sector.
"We just aren't convinced gold is out of the woods," he said.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Taking a bit of a hammer today but has held up well in light of the DX going vertical from it's magical lift-off in July?



In $AU terms still above $1600

 

[notting]

US$Gold sitting on a little support at around 1279 and with Putin's Gangsters murdering Ukrainians and taking over airports, Gold may stay a little appealing so taking some profits on Fridays shorting of spikes.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

US$Gold sitting on a little support at around 1279 and with Putin's Gangsters murdering Ukrainians and taking over airports, Gold may stay a little appealing so taking some profits on Fridays shorting of spikes.

I'm not sure I can separate the World Cop from the Dictatorship - who is less evil? Depends who's propaganda you have been brought up with and have been indoctrinated with? The Anglo-American junta would like all to believe that their enemies are our enemies too - I like to make up my own mind about that based on evidence.......

Looks like the cb'ers have continued with the formula of becoming the bond market entirely with zirp & now nirp as a consequence to enable their government masters to fund their constituents unsustainable lifestyles.

 

[notting]

I'm not sure I can separate the World Cop from the Dictatorship - who is less evil? Depends who's propaganda you have been brought up with and have been indoctrinated with? - I like to make up my own mind about that based on evidence.......

From that, you just sound confused. On the one hand you make your own mind up contrary to what the evidence, from the horses mouth is - "We are not in Ukraine," (words, propaganda) evidence clearly shows Putin is all over Ukraine.

Regardless, if you think it's all just propaganda well the market will and is behaving to it, as it normally does, making the point an irrelevant waist of mental space and a distraction from the way the game plays.

Considering whether to trim your shorts on gold, because Putin is going harder into Ukraine, according news all over the world, is relevant and spiked gold off it's lows in the first place - is part of the game - you need to make your mind up about that.
The grossly overweight doughnut eating world cop seems be less engaged in his job than ever, barley gives a crap and seems that unless he gets attacked he does bugger all and has a history of being the worst world cop ever - Pearl Harbor comes to mind - Perhaps we should do something after all!

Consider whether the propaganda has been unwittingly swallowed by those thinking the cop is out there.

Good luck with learning to think, doing it might help before making up your mind in the future.

 

[notting]

Where are these gold stocks in relation to their 200 moving day average indicated by shorter red line to the right of each chart.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Gold $AU1660 - Thank you Mr Stevens & Co - taking from the savers & giving to the debtors. And gold bugs, in an indirect sort of way. The property bubble bust will be spectacular at least?

 

[Gordon7]

I think it interesting (more than interesting actually) that Gold in $A terms is only about 12% off its all time highs set in 2011, yet Gold stocks in Australia are on average multiple times below their peaks set in 2011/2012. Sentiment is still largely bearish or skeptical and capital wants to head for the time being into other places like the $US, high yielding stocks and the bond market. Yet companies are undergoing cost-cutting measures and becoming more efficient - leaner and meaner.

I don't have any Gold stocks at present because I believe Gold is still in a downtrend. I am in the camp that believes that once the market loses faith in Govt/central banks (watch the sovereign bond markets), that Gold will once again have its day in the sun. I hope to have a sizable investment in place around the time that comes about. We're talking about an investment lasting years.

My opinion anyway.