Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[notting]

I pointed out a couple of weeks ago that there was some unusual high volume end of the day buying going on with gold. The price hadn't started to move and there was no suggestion in world terms that it would regarding events especially as the US $ was and is continuing to show strength.
So what did it mean?
Perhaps some kind of geographical even that would scare people into the perceived safety of gold.
Looking at the professionalism in the way those terror nut jobs were brandishing weapons it suggested a fairly high level of training and organisation given the target, the security they got through, and the huge response in the media.
Was that the scarey thing that some probably Arabs were privy too?
It's interesting to note also that one of Bin Laden's gripes with the west was that oil was too cheap and the free world should be paying more. Arabs again.
Timing is interesting.
Question is - is this just an event spike, that is counter what all the other commodities have been doing and thus soon to reverse. You'd think the Russians may want to offload a bit at these levels and any other oil based economy with damaged currency and exports.

 

[Ann]

Let's see now. Gold price falls to USD1000 and the Australian dollar exchange rate drops to 0.65. At that point the gold price is AUD 1538. That looks to me like a preservation of value rather than a double loss. But if your charts tell you otherwise that's ok by me.

Where are you getting the exchange rate of 0.65? Looking back at my charts, it hasn't been 0.65 since March 2009. In June 2009 the price of gold in $AUD was around 1180 and in $USD around 940.

As for cherry picking that is exactly what I try to do. I target the dips in the AUD price for the purpose of accumulating. What I allocate to gold amounts to less than 10% of my portfolio at any particular time.

I guess only risking a 10% non performer in your portfolio is no big deal as long as your other investments are performing well.

Ann, you obviously only think in terms of trading activity so you will never understand why people like me buy gold and hold it.

I can understand a spread of investments. My style of investment is to only hold a spread that either pays me a rent/interest/dividend with a preference to areas where I believe I will also attract capital gains. I don't hold currencies or gold for that reason.

But I think also that your idea that there are millions of Chinese and Indians watching USD gold charts and waiting to hit the sell button when the price drops is non-sensical. Quite the opposite is the case. That is why the gold price has already managed to stay above USD1130 and hasn't dropped to the USD800 level suggested by the likes of Goldman Sachs.

........and a lot watching in the US and Australia as well! I think you and I worked out previously why it hasn't fallen over the cliff as suggested by Goldman Sachs and all those who read their charts using Log scale. The people who will be running over a cliff are set in Linear and that line is down a bit further, we have yet to reach the cliff edge in Linear.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

G'day Uncle Festivus, I think it is you who is confusing yourself! Let me try to clarify for you, I was suggesting to Bintang he was taking a double hit holding gold bought in $AUD, because the price of gold is falling in $AUD. Monday August the 22 of 2011 the gold price saw an all time high close of $AUD1822.10 it is now down to a close on Friday January 9 2015 of $AUD1489.69.That is a fall in price and his first hit. It's simple maths.

You simply can't make the statement that gold is falling in $AUD, unless of course you choose to pick a convenient date - I could choose 2001 and show a spectacular gain in whatever currency you care to choose. It also assumes that everyone bought at the absolute peak?? Just non logical argument?

The second hit I was suggesting Bintang was taking, was on the value of his Aussie dollars as it is losing value against our trading partners (Japan to a lesser extent so far) which means it will cost more for imported goods and not just from the US but from China as well. The Yuan tends to track the $USD

So holding an asset which is falling in price using a currency to hold it which is falling in value is in my opinion taking a double hit. .

Simply incorrect on both counts - you are making an assumption on the first and simply wrong and the second point. In fact quit the opposite ie it is holding 'value' against a falling currency. I am showing an 82% gain on my gold holdings.

I would hazard a guess that we currently buy the majority of our big ticket items from China not so much from the US although the government is going to buy a few bobs worth of fighter planes in a few years from the US. Could be a very expensive exercise, unless they pay for them in $USD, hopefully we are holding some.....if not, tighten your belts folks!.

Now for the inevitable chart ....this time showing the Australian dollar to the Chinese Yuan

View attachment 61073

Hope that clarifies it for everyone, probably not for the gold bugs, they tend to be blinded by gold dust! Not too far removed from bulldust!

No one cares about whether the price of goods from China will go up or down - what has it to do with gold?

Time will tell, and time is running out for the $USD............

 

[Ann]

You simply can't make the statement that gold is falling in $AUD, unless of course you choose to pick a convenient date - I could choose 2001 and show a spectacular gain in whatever currency you care to choose. It also assumes that everyone bought at the absolute peak?? Just non logical argument?

I am not concerned when anyone bought, that has nothing to do with what I am saying. I am saying from August 2011 the price of gold in Aussie dollars has been following a downward trajectory. When a line goes upward on a chart to the pinnacle it means it is rising. When a line goes downward it is falling. I realize this is a hard concept to grasp. If you buy into a falling price you will eventually be the loser, regardless of when you bought in, unless you choose to keep buying and average down, old joke "then you will have below average profits!"

I am showing an 82% gain on my gold holdings.

.

Soon to be somewhat less than 82% if the gold price continues to fall!

 

[Ann]

Just a quick word to any serious gold traders out there, I think there may be a fairly reasonable tradeable rise in gold coming. Just did a quick look at the AUD/USD chart and it is about to test a long term support/resistance line of 0.80. https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=3117&page=62&p=856499&viewfull=1#post856499

May be wrong of course but hopefully good trading guys.

 

[Bintang]

Where are you getting the exchange rate of 0.65? Looking back at my charts, it hasn't been 0.65 since March 2009. In June 2009 the price of gold in $AUD was around 1180 and in $USD around 940.

Simply a possible scenario I selected and because there is a general tendency for the AUD/USD exchange rate to fall as the gold price in USD falls. We have been there before: 24 Feb 2009 to be precise - gold USD 997, AUD/USD 0.645

I guess only risking a 10% non performer in your portfolio is no big deal as long as your other investments are performing well.

Put another way, it only needs to perform when everything else is not. Aside from that there are other reasons why I hold gold. Some people buy and hold paintings or other artwork. Some people like to buy and hold vintage cars, etc etc. I like to buy and hold gold. Apart from other considerations it is simply beautiful.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I am not concerned when anyone bought, that has nothing to do with what I am saying. I am saying from August 2011 the price of gold in Aussie dollars has been following a downward trajectory. When a line goes upward on a chart to the pinnacle it means it is rising. When a line goes downward it is falling. I realize this is a hard concept to grasp. If you buy into a falling price you will eventually be the loser, regardless of when you bought in, unless you choose to keep buying and average down, old joke "then you will have below average profits!"

Soon to be somewhat less than 82% if the gold price continues to fall!

Now 90%.

 

[Bintang]

Now 90%.

View attachment 61092

Sorry to disappoint you Uncle Festivus but you have to use a log scale and the correct time period in which case you will observe that it is definitely going down.

 

[explod]

Sorry to disappoint you Uncle Festivus but you have to use a log scale and the correct time period in which case you will observe that it is definitely going down.
H]

Good little break out to the upside there Bintag,

I say its now going up. My loverly NST is too.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Sorry to disappoint you Uncle Festivus but you have to use a log scale and the correct time period in which case you will observe that it is definitely going down.

View attachment 61102

Yes, but......oh never mind

The big picture, the latest action doeesn't really rate yet, although nice. When it really get's going gold will be 'askless'?

 

[Bintang]

Yes, but......oh never mind

The big picture, the latest action doeesn't really rate yet, although nice. When it really get's going gold will be 'askless'?

At which point the chartists will re-position their straight lines and tell us that their previous resistance line changed into a support line etc - because hindsight is more perfect than the charts themselves. One reason I like 'vomitting camel pattern analysis' so much is that it doesn't require straight lines of any kind.

 

[notting]

I know it's all looking very hopeful.
But every bone in my body is telling me this is not going anywhere from here.
It won't take me long to say F that and jump on if it's game on however.


View attachment 61102

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Mark Faber has put a figure on gold for this year - up 30%.

Gold equities too eg NCM - breaking out first?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ma...0-in-2015-2015-01-13?link=MW_home_latest_news

 

[notting]

Wasn't this theme of buying gold due to money printing debunked?
Then decided it was really only when things were getting scary, uncertain and sovereign risky that was making gold rally?
Although I do think if the ECB decides not to print for about the 18th time in 6 years, gold may have a little correcting to do.
So now might be a good time to take some profits given that ECB move seems to have been largely priced in.
Unless something else scary happens.

 

[Ann]

At which point the chartists will re-position their straight lines and tell us that their previous resistance line changed into a support line etc - because hindsight is more perfect than the charts themselves. One reason I like 'vomitting camel pattern analysis' so much is that it doesn't require straight lines of any kind.

*falls about laughing.

I just love you guys! It is the reason I keep coming back. I love it when people have the intelligence and intellect to take the piss!

Kisses to Bintang and Uncle Festivus. May your rising support lines always be there for you! xxxx

Now chaps, i have a $hit load of work to do and may be invisible for a while.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Queen - Another one bites the dust?

Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey, I'm gonna get you, too
Another one bites the dust

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) stunned markets on Thursday, when it scrapped its three-year-old peg of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro.

In a chaotic few minutes after the central bank's announcement, the Swiss franc soared by around 30 percent in value against the euro.

Several tens of billions in losses later, the SNB throws in the towel before the ECB prepares for imminent massive QE.

Gold up 3%. NEM up 8%. NCM up ?%

Leveraged fall-out from oil, now currencies - some serious losses happening out there kiddies - contagion?

What will be the last currency left standing?

 

[explod]

What will be the last currency left standing?

Hummmmmmm, errrrrrr,

gold Uncle

 

[Bintang]

Another one bites the dust?
What will be the last currency left standing?

Hummmmmmm, errrrrrr,

gold Uncle

Maybe silver as well, unless all of it has been consumed to make chinese solar panels.

 

[pixel]

Maybe silver as well, unless all of it has been consumed to make chinese solar panels.

Weekly silver chart



I've been Bearish silver since it broke below $20/oz. However, a rise above $18/oz would signal some stabilization. At that stage, I'd also start looking at silver miners again.

As regards the subject of this topic: I believe a lot of the current hype has to do with Euroland and the expected QE there. The Swiss have acted yesterday and caused a ripple effect across not only Forex markets, but also precious metals. For me, it's too early to tell whether the current rally will last or fade back towards $1200 support.

 

[Bintang]

Weekly silver chart

View attachment 61155

I've been Bearish silver since it broke below $20/oz. However, a rise above $18/oz would signal some stabilization. At that stage, I'd also start looking at silver miners again.

As regards the subject of this topic: I believe a lot of the current hype has to do with Euroland and the expected QE there. The Swiss have acted yesterday and caused a ripple effect across not only Forex markets, but also precious metals. For me, it's too early to tell whether the current rally will last or fade back towards $1200 support.

I agree with you. My remark about silver was slightly tongue-in-cheek