Only if you sounded the trumpets
Don't worry, next time gold is over $1900 I'll play the last post in honour of the fallen fiat and to our glorious victory!
Gold doesn't like 'noflation'?
I am still the same buyer I was last week, last year, last decade.
From that perspective all I know is that this week my surplus productivity buys more gold, at a lower premium.
From a statistical perspective, when have the returns for gold historically been best? When gold is overbought or oversold (as measured by say the 1Y or 10Y returns), when gold sentiment is overbullish or overbearish, when physical premiums are high or low?
Given that you tend to be quite quantitative and analytical, I'd really like to hear how you value gold in the absolute sense.
Advances in modern medicine have come along way but the average life span of an Australian male only goes so far Uncle...
I guess it's cheaper to pay out a smaller chek at lower prices if you don't have any physical left?
bro, do you even logic?
If you are short on supplies and someone is demanding it, the best play is to drive the fungible dollar price as high as possible, so their dollars buy less gold than before.
What if your supplies are zero but you've already promised it? Offer them something instead that there is an abundance of?
http://fofoa.blogspot.com.au/2011/01/who-is-draining-gld.html
Randy Strauss at USAGold.com rightly responded to these silly reports with the truth [emphasis mine]:
RS View: Silly reporters. Instead of calling these “outflows” from the ETFs, it should be called what it is ”” a redemption of a basket of shares for physical gold by the Authorized Participants (e.g. bullion banks). Such share redemptions would actually be a bullish sign because it entails a reduction in the global supply of paper gold while at the same time signifying a preference by the redeeming party for having the metal over the ETF shares. That is, of course, unless the drawdown in physical gold merely represented the routine sales of the gold inventory that occur to cover the ETF’s administrative expenses.
RS View: I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again now, the reporters are getting it wrong when they equate outflows of gold from the ETFs with “sour” investor sentiment. What they need to work harder to understand is that these are NOT actively managed funds whose gold inventory is tweaked to ebb and flow based on public sentiment in the shares. Instead, the ETFs are more like a central coat-check room in which the various bullion banks have temporarily hung out their own inventories (i.e., meaning, their unallocated stock which they hold loosely on behalf of their depositors). And whereas the claim tickets (ETF shares) may freely circulate on the open market, any significant outflow of physical inventory is simply and primarily indicative of a bullion bank reclaiming the original inventory based on a heightened need or desire for physical metal in a tightening market ”” for example, to meet the demands emerging from Asia.
What evidence do you have that any bullion bank in the world has 0 supplies?
To me it's very obvious that at the absolute minimum, the bullion banks have annual supply equal to annual mine production. That's not including scrap, retail pukes, gold sales by Western CBs, etc.
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From "Who is draining GLD?"
Yes, I read that from when you posted it before, but doesn't it also support the 'notion' that somebody needs physical, at least that's how I read it?
What if your supplies are zero but you've already promised it?
Yes it supports the notion that someone wants physical. So?
What does that have to do with your question
If supplies were 0, it would be impossible for there to be ETF outflows. The Bbanks aren't the "someone" who needs the gold, obviously. Just as obviously, they have some gold to deliver at any time of day or night, simply by redeeming some shares in GLD.
I assume there's plenty in the ETF but not so at the BB's
hence the outflows, otherwise where's the gold going or why the need to redeem from the ETF? We have both a reduction in Comex wharehouse stock and ETF's - where is it going?
Specifically the BB's supplies are 'tight' or low to the point that they have to borrow back from the ETF?
The fact that it's ongoing and volatile means that they need it now and they need a lot?? What for??
... COMEX continues to hold its place as the largest and most sophisticated meeting place for buyers and sellers to express their gold price opinions, in the form of bids and offers, on what the price should be. COMEX remains the beating heart of gold price discovery.
Gold futures contracts are referred to as "paper-gold" because the size of this market is said to be over 100 times larger than physical gold available...open interest on the COMEX, at the time of writing, accounted for over 85% of demand on the gold futures market, so COMEX receives the most examination here. In theory investors are able to take delivery of the futures contract on expiry, although few do, instead choosing to roll the contract...the fact remains that all the long positions on COMEX cannot be settled in gold.
Note 100 paper ounces to a physical gold ounce is suggested here:-Gold futures contracts are referred to as "paper-gold" because the size of this market is said to be over 100 times larger than physical gold available..
What are everyone's thoughts on the idea that the drop in gold prices are signalling deflationary attitudes.
http://www.marcfabernews.com/2013/03/marc-faber-worried-about-deflationary.html
By who? Argue the facts and figures... I showed you the facts. They say that is utter rubbish. Are you not worried that you have based your wealth on a myth????
"Is said to be"........hahahahahahahahha
A rarity - gold up $35 in 45min! Shook the shorts up a bit, but will it hold? Bullish break-out from pennant in progress.......
It's been deflationary for 5 years so that's nothing new for gold. Gold likes inflation (or the propensity for it from QE) or deflation but not noflation? When the real deflation starts that's risk on again?
The gold and silver crash is artificial
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