Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

It's slightly more bearish to me, but the higher high in Jan compared to Oct gives me some heart. Also, breaking $640 was positive and this latest move back towards that level might see it test it again. I'm on the fence with one leg in the bear pit.

 

[chicken]

It's slightly more bearish to me, but the higher high in Jan compared to Oct gives me some heart. Also, breaking $640 was positive and this latest move back towards that level might see it test it again. I'm on the fence with one leg in the bear pit.

Kennas..check out the www.thebulliondesk.com the english side read the lates what is happening in India....start of Gold trading in India...which will affect the Gold market....also India is the largest consumer of Gold...India imported in 2006 600tons....I dont know how many ozs of Gold that is but it is huge...so interesting times ahead...

 

[chicken]

What do you think of the longer term chart?. Setting up for a breakout, one way or the other?. I give it 3 weeks by this chart.

Dr Doom....I like your Chart as the PIGS chart the bottomline is in the wrong place...as Dr Dooms Chart does not look bearish...look at what is happening in 1 months in India..Gold trading will start in a big way.....and China as well..so all prediction POG will rise...the US will no longer controll it all as right now...see.. www.thebulliondesk.com its the English side.......re precious metals...not the US BS....

 

[wayneL]

so all prediction POG will rise.

Usually a good indicator of a fall

 

[chicken]

Usually a good indicator of a fall

Waynel....you been saying this since I posted on this board...you might get it right one day...which day I do not know...LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO

 

[Sean K]

Dr Doom....I like your Chart as the PIGS chart the bottomline is in the wrong place...as Dr Dooms Chart does not look bearish...look at what is happening in 1 months in India..Gold trading will start in a big way.....and China as well..so all prediction POG will rise...the US will no longer controll it all as right now...see.. www.thebulliondesk.com its the English side.......re precious metals...not the US BS....

Actually, Great Pig's chart's 'bottom line' is in the correct place IMO. There is a definate support line around $570. This has been well accepted for some time.

Dr Doom's chart's top line is slightly in the wrong position IMO. There should be a slight downward slope. While I thought we broke the downward trend earlier as indicated on my chart at the green circle, it turned to a false break and we are now getting lower lows once again. The break up will not be confirmed until POG is clear of $645 now, IMO. As we can see, this is the problem with reading charts, especially from different sources.

'Gold trading will start in a big way'. What are you referring to Chicken?

What has happened in '1 months in India' Chicken?

'All prediction POG will rise', well, actually there is every chance that POG could head back to $570 ish as often quoted and analysed, and Mark Faber himself, a gold bull, stated in his latest Bloomberg interview that he saw gold heading back to these levels in the short term before resuming the upward trend.

Wayne's point, while with a touch of deliberate sarcasm, has every merit. When everyone is following the heard mentality, the momentum gathers to a certain point that the market overshoots fundamentals quite drastically, turning into a bubble, and eventually pops. While some will disagree with me, uranium explorers with market caps the size of a small African country will eventually come back to their intrinsic value. For many, this will be $0.00.

'The English side' is going to control PMs? What do you mean Chicken? Is it India, China, or Great Britain controling the future of PMs and how so?


Any chance of a clarrification of these points please Chicken? I'm a little confused.

Personally, I think gold will eventually rise as the $US declines over the next year or two, and geopolitics remain unstable. China's starting to launch missiles into space now! And I read reports over the weekend that Jordan and Egypt want to start Nuclear power industries. I do not think the POO will stay low for very long with the chance that inflation will rise agin in the US resulting in possible interest rate rises and the US housing market comming more unstuck than it is. At the moment, it does look like potential foft landing. But exactly how it unfolds I could not say.

One thing is for certain, there are many different opinions out there on how the world economy is going to unfold, and how the POG will go. No one can say for certainty IMO, as there are too many unknowns. Everyone has a valid opinion if presented objectively and with some type of rational analysis.

What's your rational, objective opinion Chicken?

 

[Dr Doom]

So, maybe a short term bearish with descending triangle on a long term bullish ascending triangle = breakout either way, with some degree of decisiveness, is possible?

Gold stock buyers generally don't think it's going to be to the upside as gold sp's have lagged and even fallen further from the initial 'crash' from $640 to $605 recently, but haven't followed gold back up to $635.

When is the next full moon?. (Don't laugh, astrology is becoming more acceptable as a trading tool).

 

[Dr Doom]

New rules by the IMF for central bank gold lending & swaps.

From Blanchard -


"According to the IMF, nearly all gold loans are made via unallocated accounts.
Gold lent via unallocated accounts will be removed from central bank gold reserves.
Gold lent via allocated accounts will be removed from reserves if the gold is not readily available upon demand. We assume “upon demand” will be defined by the loco London clearing transfer time period of 48 hours.
The term “residents” includes bullion banks, but is not limited to loans made via bullion banks in unallocated accounts. This will also include loans directly to fabricators and private third parties from unallocated accounts as well as allocated accounts that are not available upon demand.
The definition of allocated and unallocated gold will be made much clearer along with the guidelines defining the trading of those accounts.
(For a description of allocated and unallocated accounts from the LBMA, please read the Appendix I in the Gold Lending Paper at www.blanchardgold.com/beru or visit the LBMA website at www.lbma.org.uk)

Blanchard’s review of these five short and clear points on the coming changes to gold reserve accounting indicates that they are exactly what we expected to see after reviewing the previous position papers and committee recommendations. Gold swapped and loaned by central banks via bullion banks nearly always is taken from unallocated accounts. “In this treatment, unallocated gold accounts held with residents (such as bullion banks) are excluded from reserve assets.” This loaned and swapped gold will now be excluded from reserve asset totals.

To be sure, this is not an issue that will send the market higher in one day…this will have a much greater, long term impact on the market by providing new transparency on levels of gold swapped and loaned into the market that was not previously available to all market participants. We believe that this development should be considered as important, if not more so, than the Washington Agreement on Gold in 1999 and the legalization of gold ownership by Chinese citizens in 2004."


Background article from Blanchard here

 

[Sean K]

So, maybe a short term bearish with descending triangle on a long term bullish ascending triangle = breakout either way, with some degree of decisiveness, is possible?

LOL, I had thought that it was a decending triangle until it breaks $640 and we have some more higher lows. But maybe now, it's officially going decisively sideways...

 

[Dr Doom]

hi kennas,
You might be interested in this - get's back to my feeling that if the pog breaks up then it's up with a vengeance! And mining stocks to play catch up.

Peter Schiff, of Euro Pacific Capital, takes a look: “Thus far in 2007, as all eyes have been fixed on oil’s sharp decline, few have noticed the resilience of gold. Since January 1, while oil is off by about 13% and the Dollar Index is up close to 2%, the price of gold has held steady. In fact the gold market has sold off several times in recent months, but held the line at $600 on each occasion. But while gold itself has shown strength, gold mining stocks are off about 7% thus far this year, as traders continue to discount a price decline that has yet to materialize.

“To me, this action is indicative of some serious physical buying. For now the growing demand is being satisfied by nervous longs exiting the market and speculative shorts betting on a decline. However, a market that refuses to break will eventually turn and head higher. When that happens, a spectacular gold rally will likely ensue. Those who sold prematurely will rush to re-establish their long positions and those who sold short will rush to cover. With few sellers left to take the other side of the trades, the price of gold will spike higher.”

 

[Sean K]

hi kennas,
You might be interested in this - get's back to my feeling that if the pog breaks up then it's up with a vengeance! And mining stocks to play catch up.

Peter Schiff, of Euro Pacific Capital, takes a look: “Thus far in 2007, as all eyes have been fixed on oil’s sharp decline, few have noticed the resilience of gold. Since January 1, while oil is off by about 13% and the Dollar Index is up close to 2%, the price of gold has held steady. In fact the gold market has sold off several times in recent months, but held the line at $600 on each occasion. But while gold itself has shown strength, gold mining stocks are off about 7% thus far this year, as traders continue to discount a price decline that has yet to materialize.

“To me, this action is indicative of some serious physical buying. For now the growing demand is being satisfied by nervous longs exiting the market and speculative shorts betting on a decline. However, a market that refuses to break will eventually turn and head higher. When that happens, a spectacular gold rally will likely ensue. Those who sold prematurely will rush to re-establish their long positions and those who sold short will rush to cover. With few sellers left to take the other side of the trades, the price of gold will spike higher.”

Thanks Doom, I'll sleep better tonight on these thoughts! Cheers.

 

[Sean K]

And I'm going to sleep much better tonight after seeing the open in NY:

 

[Kauri]

I think that after the May 06 highs a lot of commentaters/TV experts forecast a classic 50% correction, the first corrective wave A was 38% before a 62% retrace. So far the Wave C only fell back to 38%. A lot of them still back in the 50% ($480) level, with waves now going to ABCDE.... ... in the meantime gold may just be tracing out a minor W 1 of a Wave 3.... who knows which way it will eventually pan out. If gold threatens the old Wave B high around $680 watch the pundits start seriously get behind it. Likewise if it approaches the $560 mark the bears will be unbearable. In the meantime there are valid shorter term trading opportunities ....

 

[Nick Radge]

As per post #964.

The Jan 5 low was exactly 61.8% of the 5-wave advance to the Dec 1 high.

The decline from the Dec 1 high to the Jan 5 low unfolded exactly in 3-waves.

Wave-c of that 3-wave decline was within $3 of the same length of wave-a.

We have now made a wave-2 or -B low on Jan 5 and should travel, at least, back to $688 being the same distance as the Oct 4 to Dec 1 rally. That move will complete wave-3 or -C. An extension through that level, especially if its strong and smooth, suggests we're moving higher in a larger 5-wave pattern which puts $800 back on the agenda. On the flipside, should those lows of Jan 1 be breached then the bullish argument is under threat.

Elliott Wave doesn't get any clearer. Let the pattern build. Know what can occur and where the pattern will be invalidated. We now have clear boundaries to trade with.

 

[wavepicker]

As per post #964.

The Jan 5 low was exactly 61.8% of the 5-wave advance to the Dec 1 high.

The decline from the Dec 1 high to the Jan 5 low unfolded exactly in 3-waves.

Wave-c of that 3-wave decline was within $3 of the same length of wave-a.

We have now made a wave-2 or -B low on Jan 5 and should travel, at least, back to $688 being the same distance as the Oct 4 to Dec 1 rally. That move will complete wave-3 or -C. An extension through that level, especially if its strong and smooth, suggests we're moving higher in a larger 5-wave pattern which puts $800 back on the agenda. On the flipside, should those lows of Jan 1 be breached then the bullish argument is under threat.

Elliott Wave doesn't get any clearer. Let the pattern build. Know what can occur and where the pattern will be invalidated. We now have clear boundaries to trade with.

Well done,

This could be a bull move as you say BUT one has to look at other possibilities too, it could also be part of this on going correction that started back in May last year. What if the move down from 12/05/06 to 14/06/06 was a larger wave A. If the sideways move since then is a larger B wave, then this may only be the sub wave c leg of a larger triangular wave B. Wave c's in triangles can get quite complex compared to the other subdivisions. Too early to call, and only a break above $676.5 would seal the bullish case for me. Certainly looking more bullish in the nearterm, but the longer term fate fate of the yellow metal largely depends on the movements of the USD.

Cheers

 

[Kauri]

In the meantime gold is headbutting against the November highs, might be a good place for the minor W1 of the possible W3 to terminate?? Long term bullish or bearish, there are still trades unfolding in the shorter term.

 

[Reefer]

Any gold stocks we should be tracking if the price of gold is about to surge?

 

[mick2006]

not yet producing but about to announce an upgrade to Tunkillia Gold Deposit in South Australia either MEP or HLX have some good exploration ground

 

[Dr Doom]

Doing some analysis on the pog, and came up with this 10 minute chart. An advance in price per cycle figure of $12.5 keeps repeating like clockwork. The price kept within a $6.30 range for some day's before the latest rally, then each advance, from bottom to peak in each cycle, has been approx $12.50 or so. Advance $12.50 then followed by a retrace of $6.30. ???

Next advance to $659 or so??

 

[Dr Doom]

Any gold stocks we should be tracking if the price of gold is about to surge?

Reefer
No specific stocks, but here's a good site to get started with, roughly sorted by whether they are producing, about to produce or exploring.

GoldOz

Start with the juniors about to produce list.