Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Compol]

Well said . . .
US needs to wake up to overspending; particularly militrary spending!
Gold price is looking good for 2008.

 

[coyotte]

As I have posted here prior
If U wish to waste the time trying to nut out the GOLD market U could do far worst than paying a visit to the " Speculative Investor " site
Steve Saville the analyst at the site has a ( free)commentry page :
in the achives of this page U will find a artical titled " Understanding the Gold Market "


Will probably give U a different perspective


Cheers

 

[Kauri]

On the hourly spot gold..... is this bearish flag No2..????

 

[wavepicker]

On the hourly spot gold..... is this bearish flag No2..????

Certainly looks that way Kauri. I think this is gonna set up real nicely over the course of the next few weeks and months. Gold has been great to trade in the last 10 months

 

[markrmau]

I should also say that the power of the recent downmove is also cause for concern. On its own merits it appears to be impulsive rather than corrective, however I'll stand by the analysis and keep those October lows as a reference.

That move seems to have retraced. Funny, I don't really see any news to explain the retrace.

 

[Dr Doom]

From thestreet

"Gold prices in New York rose Friday, with geopolitical tensions and short-covering providing the catalysts.

February-dated bullion contracts rallied $13 to close at $626.90 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The exchange-traded funds that own bars of gold were up also.

Also giving a boost to bullion was the greenback, which was trading lower despite yet more robust economic news."

The endgame for the US dollar is near?

 

[sam76]

That move seems to have retraced. Funny, I don't really see any news to explain the retrace.

word had spread of SBM's 10% stake in BDG.

 

[chicken]

word had spread of SBM's 10% stake in BDG.

Gold rose by $14.55 US to $626.20..the Fed brings it up the Fed brings it down..I wish they make up their mind...looks as if the swing is to the right again

 

[Sean K]

I thought that once it had got back to $640 after testing $620 as a support line that we'd see the end of low 600s for a while....I subsequently topped up on a few of my gold stocks (not SBM yet Chicken) only to see them get roasted. I'm a bit happier today, but until it gets back over $640 it's in range mode.

Still holding:
NCM - Possible takeover target. Millions and millions of oz au (59m I think)
LHG - 20m oz au. predator (so it doesn't get taken over) low hedging. Country risk.
KMN - 5.6 m oz au equiv inferred ++ (maybe 8 IMO) in Mexico, into production maybe late 08 - unhedged. Final resource estimate this quarter.
IRN - 62% stake in Tampakan taken by Xstrata. 11 m oz au + a little copper
BSG - 3-4 m oz au equiv. Possible takeover target, undervalued on TSX. Into production 07.
GCR - A dog, woof woof - possible 1.5m oz au, cheap as chips. At all time lows - don't get smelly fingers on this puppy. I'm holding out of stubborness.

Sold BDG, PSV and CTO recently. Just not going where I wanted...

Anywho, not sure why I put that list up there. Perhaps I need someone to tell me, hey kennas, they're great stocks! Or, maybe you can shoot me down and tell me better undervalued ones......

Yes, Chicken, I know about SBM.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Whats interesting is from this time last year ie Jan 06 to now ie Jan 07, how many supposed producers have actually met target production figures?

I HAVEN'T DONE ANY RESEARCH, THIS IS ALL FROM MEMORY SO CORRECT ANY ERRORS YOU SEE

ARX? OMG What a screw up!
BDG? Certainly not
BGF? Nope
BMO? Again nope (what a disaster)
CRE? Don't think so
CRS? Well we all know how this went
DRA? Again nope
GLN? Nope more funding required
IGR? Don't think so
TAM? lol no comment required


I think what I'm trying to get at is how many companies have actually delivered on production forecasts? a few maybe like SMB, TRY, LHG and so on, but the vast majority of small to mid cap players haven't, surely this lack of supply will eventually have an effect,

But then I don't understand the gold price so (and I don't think anyone on ASF does lol just the US Fed and the Powers that be!)

 

[markrmau]

CRE? Don't think so

I hold CRE, so I am biased.

As far as I am aware, they are in final stages of construction and so production should be ramping up in the next 6 months, which isn't too bad considering industry-wide cost overruns and delays.

BDG's uneven grade problems won't be a problem here as they have deliberately targeted low grade high tonnage resources.

Unfortunately, they hived off their uranium assets. I would have preferred they waited for some cash to role in and drilled it themselves.

 

[Kauri]

Daily spot Gold....
A bit early for a trade but setting up.. and/or a bullish flag fluttering too..

 

[machi]

Daily spot Gold....
A bit early for a trade but setting up.. and/or a bullish flag fluttering too..

This is not looking too inspiring IMO at present, and silver seemed to fall away somewhat last night. Too early to call at present. With the rising USD this is starting to become a low probability scenario.

 

[Dr Doom]

What do you think of the longer term chart?. Setting up for a breakout, one way or the other?. I give it 3 weeks by this chart.

 

[Sean K]

I thought the last break though $640 was a break UP. I'll stick to that again.....Will be right one day.....

 

[Kauri]

I thought the last break though $640 was a break UP. I'll stick to that again.....Will be right one day.....

Looking to 635-640 short term before a correction back to 620's.. Having said that watch it tank!!!

 

[Dr Doom]

Another chart, another perspective. Big things about to happen in the next month????
Very rough calcs - up sloping triangle indication price projection to roughly $900.

Gold stocks look to be behind the curve in a waiting game to see if gold can finally push past $640. If it does, expect to see a mad scramble for sold off gold shares eg NCM the last couple of days.

To use chickens term, 'the capper' has been really busy at $640, but may soon come unstuck.

 

[noirua]

Another chart, another perspective. Big things about to happen in the next month????
Very rough calcs - up sloping triangle indication price projection to roughly $900.

Gold stocks look to be behind the curve in a waiting game to see if gold can finally push past $640. If it does, expect to see a mad scramble for sold off gold shares eg NCM the last couple of days.

To use chickens term, 'the capper' has been really busy at $640, but may soon come unstuck.

Hi, The pattern is not very convincing, as you have had to go right back to November 2005, to pick up a third point in the rising trend, to form the triangle. In my view, say over 3 or 4 months, the triangle has not fully formed and may equally be pointing to a reversal.

 

[Dr Doom]

Do you think my previous weekly chart is more relevant?. I'm not right into ta so just doodling trying to figure out what's ahead. Gold is probably the hardest to figure out as it has so many influences. Having been a gold price watcher everyday for the last 7 years, my 'gut' feeling is that something is going to happen soon as it's been bouncing back strongly after attempts to sell off.

 

[GreatPig]

My chart, using the ASX GOLD code, is completely the opposite: a large bearish triangle.

Cheers,
GP