Gold Price - Where is it heading?
- Thread starter guycharles
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I think most gold stocks have not re-acted to the recent strength in gold, ie there seems to be more re-action to downside moves than to upside moves which suggests uncertainty and unwillingness to add to positions until there is a clear break up. What that magical price point will be, who knows.
I'm back into OXR this week as the AGC deal is digested fully and the synergies fully appreciated. I think the current OXR price is bottom of the channel and expect the usual bi-monthly takeover rumour to re-surface soon. Lots of upside?.
Heres an interesting story about gold manipulation conspiracy & bullish viewpoints, some extracts....
" Gold and commodity bulls received a crucial increase in support this past week when 13-D Research, written by my old friend Kiril Sokoloff, went bullish. This service, similar to The Gartman Letter in being very expensive and marketed to institutions, publishes weekly and concentrates on matters of grand strategy. It's not followed by the HFD. But its fans say its record is formidable.
Buying an outright oil position for what it says is only the second time in its history, 13-D suggests commodities could be starting a "huge rally, led by gold."
Full story here
I'm back into OXR this week as the AGC deal is digested fully and the synergies fully appreciated. I think the current OXR price is bottom of the channel and expect the usual bi-monthly takeover rumour to re-surface soon. Lots of upside?.
Heres an interesting story about gold manipulation conspiracy & bullish viewpoints, some extracts....
" Gold and commodity bulls received a crucial increase in support this past week when 13-D Research, written by my old friend Kiril Sokoloff, went bullish. This service, similar to The Gartman Letter in being very expensive and marketed to institutions, publishes weekly and concentrates on matters of grand strategy. It's not followed by the HFD. But its fans say its record is formidable.
Buying an outright oil position for what it says is only the second time in its history, 13-D suggests commodities could be starting a "huge rally, led by gold."
Full story here
Kauri
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CAPE TOWN ”” The gold price is likely to average $674/oz this year but could range between $730 and $852 in the most optimistic scenario, global gold guru Martin Murenbeeld said.
Murenbeeld, who is chief economist of the Dundee Group of Companies, is well known for previous accurate predictions of the gold price.
He told the annual Mining Indaba conference that a number of factors were bullish for the gold price.
The dollar was likely to weaken as it was currently overvalued based on the US current account deficit of $850bn, and that downward adjustment could be by as much as 20%.
Currently dollar gold holdings around the world were excessive, at about $4,8-trillion, of which $2,6-trillion was held by Asian countries.
For those countries, gold was only 1,4% of reserves, compared with 15% held by the European Central Bank.
Although the Asian countries were unlikely to push gold holdings up to 15% of reserves, if they simply absorbed the 500 tons a year that were being sold by certain central banks, it would support the gold price.
The number of barrels of oil needed to buy an ounce of gold was now far lower than in the past.
With very high oil revenues, oil producers had excessive amounts of money and there was great pressure on them to diversify their assets.
Gold was cheap in comparison with other financial assets.
Murenbeeld, who is chief economist of the Dundee Group of Companies, is well known for previous accurate predictions of the gold price.
He told the annual Mining Indaba conference that a number of factors were bullish for the gold price.
The dollar was likely to weaken as it was currently overvalued based on the US current account deficit of $850bn, and that downward adjustment could be by as much as 20%.
Currently dollar gold holdings around the world were excessive, at about $4,8-trillion, of which $2,6-trillion was held by Asian countries.
For those countries, gold was only 1,4% of reserves, compared with 15% held by the European Central Bank.
Although the Asian countries were unlikely to push gold holdings up to 15% of reserves, if they simply absorbed the 500 tons a year that were being sold by certain central banks, it would support the gold price.
The number of barrels of oil needed to buy an ounce of gold was now far lower than in the past.
With very high oil revenues, oil producers had excessive amounts of money and there was great pressure on them to diversify their assets.
Gold was cheap in comparison with other financial assets.
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Here are some fundamental observaions to back up your tech analysis
Cheers
Central Banks Buying Gold
Source: FN Arena News - February 08 2007
By Greg Peel
Gold dealer Blanchard & Co reports the latest IMF statistics indicate the central banks of Russia, Kazakhstan, Greece and The Philippines have all added to gold reserves recently. Of the four, Russia had often talked of gold purchases, but the other three are a surprise to the market.
Russia added 7.45t to reserves, Kazakhstan 7.38t, Greece 3.56t and Philippines 1.4t.
Blanchard & Co notes the trend of central bank gold activity is shifting towards the buy side, as the above purchases come not long after the Central Bank Gold Agreement banks failed to meet their selling quota in 2006. This is a bullish sign, says Blanchard's CEO Donald W. Doyle.
UK commodity specialist Natexis has also joined the chorus of gold bulls, suggesting any price weakness should be seen as a buying opportunity. While demand from the jewellery sector has not been particularly strong, buying does reappear if gold drifts towards US$600/oz.
The supply side is also supportive, notes Natexis, and gold scrap supply is not expected to hit the market until US$700/oz is breached. A higher gold price is gaining market acceptance. The key driving factor will be an increase in activity from the investment community, the analysts suggest.
Cheers
Central Banks Buying Gold
Source: FN Arena News - February 08 2007
By Greg Peel
Gold dealer Blanchard & Co reports the latest IMF statistics indicate the central banks of Russia, Kazakhstan, Greece and The Philippines have all added to gold reserves recently. Of the four, Russia had often talked of gold purchases, but the other three are a surprise to the market.
Russia added 7.45t to reserves, Kazakhstan 7.38t, Greece 3.56t and Philippines 1.4t.
Blanchard & Co notes the trend of central bank gold activity is shifting towards the buy side, as the above purchases come not long after the Central Bank Gold Agreement banks failed to meet their selling quota in 2006. This is a bullish sign, says Blanchard's CEO Donald W. Doyle.
UK commodity specialist Natexis has also joined the chorus of gold bulls, suggesting any price weakness should be seen as a buying opportunity. While demand from the jewellery sector has not been particularly strong, buying does reappear if gold drifts towards US$600/oz.
The supply side is also supportive, notes Natexis, and gold scrap supply is not expected to hit the market until US$700/oz is breached. A higher gold price is gaining market acceptance. The key driving factor will be an increase in activity from the investment community, the analysts suggest.
chops_a_must
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Can we put gold in the breakout thread? Lol!
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greggy said:
Chinese bought a lot gold before the Chinese New Year.
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Gold looks too high at the moment. May see a bit of profit taking over the next couple of weeks. No real fundamentals on why it has been going up. Gold stocks have not followed the move so they must know something.
chops_a_must
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Bollocks.adobereader said:
http://www.blanchardonline.com/beru...l_Banks_unexpectedly_buying_gold_for_reserves
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This may be of interest.
Wave Goodbye To US$600 Gold
Source: FN Arena News - February 13 2007
By Greg Peel
GoldMoney.com's founder James Turk is a card-carrying gold bug. However, in a report published on Monday Turk supports his argument with a technical assessment. Notes Turk:
"It has now been more than one month since the January 5th low, and the performance by both gold and silver has been impressive. Gold has climbed $62.60, or 10.3%. Silver has done even better, climbing $1.75, or 14.4%."
Silver, says Turk, looks even better than gold. Turk believes we may have seen a "selling climax" on January 5 and the probability is rising that gold will "never go back below US$600/oz". He considers it a 75% probability that gold will never go back to US$500/oz, and a 98% probability for US$100/oz, just to put things in perspective.
Turk further points out, for the record, that gold waved goodbye to US$35/oz when President Nixon abandoned the Gold Standard and the US dollar became a fiat currency. No fiat currency in history has ever survived, notes Turk. The US dollar may be the exception to the rule, he says, "But if you don't like the long odds of that outcome, buy gold instead".
Cheers
Wave Goodbye To US$600 Gold
Source: FN Arena News - February 13 2007
By Greg Peel
GoldMoney.com's founder James Turk is a card-carrying gold bug. However, in a report published on Monday Turk supports his argument with a technical assessment. Notes Turk:
"It has now been more than one month since the January 5th low, and the performance by both gold and silver has been impressive. Gold has climbed $62.60, or 10.3%. Silver has done even better, climbing $1.75, or 14.4%."
Silver, says Turk, looks even better than gold. Turk believes we may have seen a "selling climax" on January 5 and the probability is rising that gold will "never go back below US$600/oz". He considers it a 75% probability that gold will never go back to US$500/oz, and a 98% probability for US$100/oz, just to put things in perspective.
Turk further points out, for the record, that gold waved goodbye to US$35/oz when President Nixon abandoned the Gold Standard and the US dollar became a fiat currency. No fiat currency in history has ever survived, notes Turk. The US dollar may be the exception to the rule, he says, "But if you don't like the long odds of that outcome, buy gold instead".
Cheers
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Kauri
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My figures line up with you Kauri at $674.50 approx. Optimistic targets for tonight trade high =$674.50 & $680. Looks like the stochastic has failed though so it looks like there might be a retracement possibly to supports at $661 or $649.
Elliott Wave Gold Update XI
Elliott Wave Gold Update XI
By: Alf Field
http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1171296000.php
Elliott Wave Gold Update XI
By: Alf Field
http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1171296000.php
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