Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[FlyingFox]

I just scanned it quickly, will try and read later. On first blush it seemed to over look Chinese official demand which is soaking up all domestic production plus some. If we are to assume that the Chinese want their currency to be in contention for reserve status at some point (granted way of in the distance for now) they will want to have gold reserves that rival the first world economies. The evidence appears to be in the process of doing this as stealthily as they can, they are not big on announcing official purchases until after the fact, they seem to hold back until they really have to announce the obvious then reserves leap by a healthy chunk.When you work out what they need to get to first world reserve standards it is a gobsmacking amount at todays prices, and it dwarfs private demand.

Interesting....I have been thinking along these lines as well. Haven't seen anything mentioned baout this anywhere else. Do you think they will push for a reserve currency?

 

[Trembling Hand]

The 24 hour chart seems to be following the same script these past three days - down during NYMX to recover during Hong Kong and London.

Don't tell the bugs that apparently it only ever gets smashed during the light hours.

Hi CanOz

Three questions:

1. Where do you source your charts?
2. Swinging between US$1,360.00 per ounce and US$1,402.00 per ounce, is this to tight a spread to trade? and
3. Is any one in the forum trading gold atm?

Currently US$1,388.00 per ounce.

1. Futs broker.
2. Absolutely there is heaps in there. Each $0.10 move which is the minimum tick is worth $10 US. brokerage is depending on broker but usually less than 1 tick per round trip.
3. YES!

 

[CanOz]

Hi CanOz

Three questions:

1. Where do you source your charts?
2. Swinging between US$1,360.00 per ounce and US$1,402.00 per ounce, is this to tight a spread to trade? and
3. Is any one in the forum trading gold atm?

Currently US$1,388.00 per ounce.

These are my charts using (CQG) data with NinjaTrader. The Market Profile tools are Rancho Dinero. I also subscribe to James Dalton's daily updates as my educational/training resource.

Value is being accepted higher right now, the GAP is the single biggest trading opportunity. Intra-day there are many opportunities but i cannot trade the US Products due to an unreliable data connection. So I've been analyzing the US markets for practice.

Gold is expensive to trade and very volatile at the moment....a bit like the HSI.

CanOz

 

[CanOz]

Don't tell the bugs that apparently it only ever gets smashed during the light hours.



1. Futs broker.
2. Absolutely there is heaps in there. Each $0.10 move which is the minimum tick is worth $10 US. brokerage is depending on broker but usually less than 1 tick per round trip.
3. YES!

I reckon you can trade the electronic market no worries, what are you using for an initial stop 20 ticks?

 

[Trembling Hand]

I reckon you can trade the electronic market no worries, what are you using for an initial stop 20 ticks?

Time stops......... if I can without spewing it up..

Actually Oil is just as good at the mo..

 

[CanOz]

Time stops......... if I can without spewing it up..

Actually Oil is just as good at the mo..

Totally agree, been monitoring my connection during the day, may be able to trade CL...GC is too wild for me right now...

 

[baby_swallow]

Thanks for your response Mr Z

This is the aggregate demand chart from their first paper

View attachment 51838

This illustration should backup why physical demand from emerging markets has risen steadily during
the last decade. The significant rise in GDP of China, other BRICS, and Asian Tigers (not shown), made
their citizens relatively affluent compared a decade ago or so.

http://money.cnn.com/news/economy/world_economies_gdp/

 

[Uncle Festivus]

It's important to know where the entry is, but it's more important to know where the exit is?

For those in Sydney the SMH ran a story here.



That Q at ABC Bullion takes about an hour to get through. I was after 10oz bars but they only had 1oz left. Totally overwhelming for all involved, totally unprofessional organisation by the vendors.

An ABC Radio journo (an attractive lady ) was hanging around for interviews.

When there is a genuine bull bust there's just no way of dumping physical, so keep nimble..........

Others - http://bullionmoney.com.au/

As for the gold dump over the last 2 weeks, all it has succeded in doing was to sterilise even more paper money into non productive, non velocity, inertness which will need even more QE to counter?

A little inflation in Japan though - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...boost-burger-price-first-time-since-2008.html

 

[Mr Z]

View attachment 51838

I think you are saying that the counterbalance to their argument is that the demand distribution has/will change significantly since 2000-2010 in such a way that any reduction in the emerging Asian consumer will be soaked up elsewhere – ie China Central Bank. And also that emerging Asian consumer will stay robust in the face of economic head winds or perhaps a bit of both.

The thing is that the Chinese are tardy to say the least in reporting what official reserves are and by how much they have changed so I doubt that truly reflects what they have been up to. No way to know for sure other than past behavior leads me to believe they are being smart about accumulation. They have certainly stepped up purchasing since 2008.

 

[CanOz]

Value is being accepted higher right now, the GAP is the single biggest trading opportunity.

CanOz

Gold just took out the 1404.4 and we're heading for the gap, in a hurry as shorts cover...

 

[skyQuake]

Gold just took out the 1404.4 and we're heading for the gap, in a hurry as shorts cover...

Can't believe how long that took lol

<insert sexual frustration innuendo here>

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Can't believe how long that took lol

<insert sexual frustration innuendo here>

Looks like a woody

All markets up - did someone say they are going to print some more?

 

[Mr Z]

Don't get too excited just yet, there should be a strongish response.

Maybe we are close to done but I don't buy it yet.

Matron is pulling the spoon out of the freezer.

 

[CanOz]

Can't believe how long that took lol

<insert sexual frustration innuendo here>

Ton of bergs on the bid to start with, then it swapped around....

Have to wait for the cash to open in Europe now i think...

 

[Trembling Hand]

Where have all the EWers gone?

Back to the poor house.......

 

[Mr Z]

EWer's are just feeling deflated. :frown:

They are still waiting for gold $200

 

[explod]

The banter is entertaining.

Have been watching the gold action on the charts for many years now and the drops in price have uncannily arrived near periods when trading is light, early Monday's our time, close of US trade 1600hrs thier time. Around holidays seems to be another good time for drops too.

Even on Bloomberg news there is some scrutiny of the sudden drop and its reasons this time. So I wonder if there is any real ammunition left for the drop expected by some during this evening. Not in my book but it will a bit when US closes in the morning, again Monday but from there in my view this shakeout to the downside will be over.

Just my own particular vibe which in this wild world has got to be as good as the next one.

 

[nulla nulla]

Don't tell the bugs that apparently it only ever gets smashed during the light hours.



1. Futs broker.
2. Absolutely there is heaps in there. Each $0.10 move which is the minimum tick is worth $10 US. brokerage is depending on broker but usually less than 1 tick per round trip.
3. YES!

These are my charts using (CQG) data with NinjaTrader. The Market Profile tools are Rancho Dinero. I also subscribe to James Dalton's daily updates as my educational/training resource.

Value is being accepted higher right now, the GAP is the single biggest trading opportunity. Intra-day there are many opportunities but i cannot trade the US Products due to an unreliable data connection. So I've been analyzing the US markets for practice.

Gold is expensive to trade and very volatile at the moment....a bit like the HSI.

CanOz

Thank you for the replies.

 

[CanOz]

Nice bot fight at 1415...the ask bot lost...

 

[Trembling Hand]

The banter is entertaining.

Have been watching the gold action on the charts for many years now

BLah Blah

Is that like hearing but not listening?