Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Gringotts Bank]

These two, in spite of starting well, turned to stinkers while I was away! Shame I was told that gold was going to be higher than the DOW in 6 months......

Where did you go? I had no one to banter with.

 

[tinhat]

Gold miners are having a relief rally today. MML is up 12% as I type. I sold out of MML when it broke below its previous lows on the weekly chart. Sold out at 4.35. I will be so pissed if that turns out to be the bottom of the current cycle!

 

[notting]

Now really.



Is that any way to behave whilst we have death cross?



After being knocked off my rocker with the big drop on Thursday, this gold action was all just a bit too much to digest whilst all the other volatility was going on.
I had been waiting for a bounce with the Chinese coming back in from holidays, and they seem to have gone for gold stocks first?
You don't often see that kind of contrarian action, a death cross in the commodity causing goldies to have a massive rally day. :dunno:
Smart people reading the FED fine print realising, "Hey, their not stopping the printing any time too soon?"
Or just playing for the very short term bounce out of oversold gold?

 

[Mr Z]

HUI rallied on short covering... wise up.

Options expiry next week, be cautious until we clear that date.

 

[notting]

HUI rallied on short covering... wise up.

Oh. So they are just covering shorts for the sake of it?

 

[Mr Z]

Oh. So they are just covering shorts for the sake of it?

It is called taking profit! If you shorted into that decline and you got a "capitulation day" like that it is a REALLY logical point to cover your position. That is what would typically account for relative strength in the HUI against the sort of background (USDX, Gold etc) that the day in question had.

IF you had experience you would realize this, shorts take profit quickly because they are all leveraged.... perhaps you'd also set your stop losses for short positions above the market!!!! Not below...LOL

Yeah... wise up

 

[notting]

It is called taking profit! If you shorted into that decline and you got a "capitulation day".

Oh. So it's profit taking after capitulation .
That makes sense.

I'm afraid short covering doesn't do it for me.
I do that whether up or down on a short, if I figure a position is trending or about to move savagely against me.

Although, when gold has only just moved below its 200 day moving average, capitulation is not what comes to mind. It's more like the confirmation of a bearish trend, early days, so to speak.

Also, Death Cross. Now wonder what that term is meant to indicate? :hide:

Do you think gold stocks are that far ahead of the curve?

 

[Mr Z]

Oh. So it's profit taking after capitulation .
That makes sense.

If you are short YES!!!! It makes perfect sense!

I'm afraid short covering doesn't do it for me.

LOL.... OK... then have it your way ---> It was bargain hunters!

I do that whether up or down on a short, if I figure a position is trending or about to move savagely against me.

Crystal balls?

Although, when gold has only just moved below its 200 day moving average, capitulation is not what comes to mind. It's more like the confirmation of a bearish trend, early days, so to speak.

The capitulation day was on the HUI... they gave up, chucked in the towel, ran away.... blah, blah, blah.... jeezz!

Also, Death Cross. Now wonder what that term is meant to indicate? :hide:

Sweet FA!

Do you think gold stocks are that far ahead of the curve?

They are under the friggin table cowering in fear! They can't see the curve!

Cheap ain't the word...

BUY!!!!!!

 

[notting]

BUY!!!!!!

OK.

I have been waiting for the Asia bounce.
I had four charts and depth screens open with match prices up at the start of trade on Friday but was too distracted by Thursday's and the overnight stock action to pull any triggers on gold apart from RRL.
So what will you be buying Monday? Or, if you could, how would you go about destributing say 250,000 into gold stocks on Monday?
Just a hypothetical question of course.

 

[Mr Z]

Option expiry is Monday.... US time. It will pay to wait until that is out of the way, there could well be more downside here BUT the HUI is silly cheap now.

I can't advise what... but watch closely... IMO the USDX is key and the opportunity is very close at hand.

JMO.

DYODD... etc.

 

[CanOz]

Deje vu?

The DX can be inversely correlated to GC....

 

[Mr Z]

We could see ~84ish... mebe 85 IMO but I think that gold and gold stocks will find their floor just prior to the USDX topping out. Mebe even sooner but I am not quite convinced just yet.

 

[notting]

BUY!!!!!!

The most actively traded contract, for April delivery, on Friday fell $US5.80, or 0.4 per cent, to settle at $US1,572.80 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. This is the lowest settlement price since July 18 at $US1,570.80 a troy ounce.

Whilst our Goldie's all rallied for 6 hours before.
if it's just short profit taking then new buying, may not be a good idea just yet.

 

[Mr Z]

Yeah well...use your charts and pick your entry, every stock is different but in the mid term it will be hard to go wrong from these levels IMO BUT one can always refine the entry point.

Then again this is advice for people that hold non-leveraged positions for more than a nanosecond.

 

[tinhat]

As mentioned earlier I "capitulated" last week and sold my MML when they broke below the long term support of around 4.50. Looking at the weekly chart, it is interesting to see that last week a "hammer" with a long tail formed and that the price ended up back at the 2012 support level at 2.49 .So last week's price action does have the appearance of a capitulation on the chart. The chart for SLR is very similar.

I'll be watching the gold stocks and gold price with great interest over the next few weeks.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Gold stocks looking moderately bullish at Friday's close.

I like:

RSG - if it puts on 3c Monday I'm in.
SBM - potential for $1.26 short term.
NCM - 22.65 should make the move more easily this time with better volume.
BDR - v. strong close busting through multiple lines of resistance. 2 or 3 day trade. $1.08 resistance.

 

[notting]

Fin Review published a rumour that BDR was a 'shoe in' for a take over.
Peddling self serving rubbish.
BDR took till 10mins before the close to refute the rumour after a speeding ticket!
Got the rest of the sector buzzing.
There was 3 days or reasonable buying in the sector prior.
Probably just Fin Review insiders!
Let's see if they all sell on Monday!

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Fin Review published a rumour that BDR was a 'shoe in' for a take over.
Peddling self serving rubbish.
BDR took till 10mins before the close to refute the rumour after a speeding ticket!
Got the rest of the sector buzzing.
There was 3 days or reasonable buying in the sector prior.
Probably just Fin Review insiders!
Let's see if they all sell on Monday!

I don't think so. $13 million turnover and the closing price was 1.5c above the 4pm price with traders buying $750,000 worth in the auction period, well after the news release.

 

[notting]

Yeah spose 10 mins is a long time in the market, specially on a late Friday afternoon session that was unbearably boaring.
Without further ramping news -
Whatch how BDR opens on Monday and performs till lunch.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Yeah spose 10 mins is a long time in the market, specially on a late Friday afternoon session that was unbearably boaring.
Without further ramping news -
Whatch how BDR opens on Monday and performs till lunch.

That's not very nice. Why are you being aggressive?