Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[notting]

That's not very nice. Why are you being aggressive?

Not meaning to be mean. Don't like Fin Review ramps.

On Wednesday it did strike me that gold could have a bit of a bounce again here, especially if the market is going to have a breather and gold has reacted slowly to the Feds back down on slowing stimulus.
I dropped shorts and went long on TRY and SLR.
Sold SLR yesterday at close to it's top, simply because it was a quick short term
return that would cover me if TRY has a bad open Monday.
Have a bit of RMS which has had a bounce. Looking to get out of that and probably should have at the close.

So, that's where I am..

Was interesting that NCM had a good day Friday, that's a better measure of short term sentiment.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Not meaning to be mean. Don't like Fin Review ramps.

On Wednesday it did strike me that gold could have a bit of a bounce again here, especially if the market is going to have a breather. I dropped shorts and went long on TRY and SLR.
Sold SLR yesterday at close to it's top, simply because it was a quick short term
return that would cover me if TRY has a bad open Monday.
Have a bit of RMS which has had a bounce. Looking to get out of that and probably should have at the close.

So, that's where I am..

Was interesting that NCM had a good day Friday, that's a better measure of short term sentiment.

Wouldn't they get in big trouble for saying such things without a reliable source? I'm thinking maybe it's in its very early days and BDR haven't had anything formal land on their desk that they have to report to the market.

I had some RMS Friday and sold for 34.5, but I reckon it could gap up on open Tues.

 

[explod]

What have the last six posts really got to do with the direction of the gold price.

The Gold Stocks thread is the place to argue your current case in my view.

The gold price did not move this week and is sitting right on the bottom of the current consolidation pattern, now over 18 months old.

With up to a years world production of gold being traded some days on the paper markets we are in the lap of, I do not know anymore.

Views ?

 

[notting]

Wouldn't they get in big trouble for saying such things without a reliable source?

They do it all the time. They can just say the source was unreliable if they were ever questioned!

I'm thinking maybe it's in its very early days and BDR haven't had anything formal land on their desk that they have to report to the market.

BDR are the ones more likely to get into trouble for not saying anything, when asked is there anything.

Would surely not hurt BDR to say "We have had some preliminary enquiries, but nothing of any substance has occured."

If there was anythng of that nature, at least saying that, would cover them as far as preliminary disclosure is concerned and would be necessary to say if there really was something, especailly if something has been announced in the press that reflected such.

BDR said there has been nothing of that nature.
North America attending the conferences is a long way from an immanent take over bid as expressed in the FR.

 

[notting]

What have the last six posts really got to do with the direction of the gold price.

Views ?

On Wednesday it did strike me that gold could have a bit of a bounce again here, especially if the market is going to have a breather and gold has reacted slowly to the Feds back down on slowing stimulus.

Doesn't that qualify as a view on gold?

 

[zac]

I had a quick peruse of FOMC member Duke's speech from the weekend.

From the glance I had, looks like she is pleased with the recovering economy but has concerns whether it can be sustained and there is a long way to go.
So reading between the lines I got the feeling she isnt thinking QE should cease anytime soon.

Anyone have any other info.

 

[inyaface]

Gold stocks looking moderately bullish at Friday's close.

I like:

RSG - if it puts on 3c Monday I'm in.
SBM - potential for $1.26 short term.
NCM - 22.65 should make the move more easily this time with better volume.
BDR - v. strong close busting through multiple lines of resistance. 2 or 3 day trade. $1.08 resistance.

I just bought my biggest NCM parcel yet at 21.59, have made good gains on multiple shorts on NCM in the last 6 weeks.

 

[explod]

Doesn't that qualify as a view on gold?

But there was no qualification as to why so without that it does not fit with subject or thesis of the thread.

There is a thread for gold stocks and your discussion should go there.

 

[Joe Blow]

There is a thread dedicated to gold stocks here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=573

It hasn't seen any action for a while, so please feel free to resurrect it.

 

[notting]

But there was no qualification as to why so without that it does not fit with subject or thesis of the thread.

I thought this was the possible reason expressed (which is what I think you mean by qualification) -

the market is going to have a breather and gold has reacted slowly to the Feds back down on slowing stimulus.

The title of the thread is not a thesis, it's a question.

However, If you are looking to find a syllogism amidst the content of the afore mentioned posts -

You could put it together like this:

Subject - Gold, where is it's price heading?

Predicate - up - expressed as bounce.

Reason (why) - Fed printing re-assured/market breather due. (renewed inflation hedging and defensive market action in gold yet to be observed as an upward price movement of gold.)

Which was all a subsequent attempt to back up, a sense/hunch, that gold was about to have a bounce, how long that hunch/sense will last for is unpredictable despite having found a reason for it, so will be treated with a very quick exit unless technical or fundamental indicator supports the initial direction so far expressed in gold stocks. Another hunch will also cause me to hold and buy more and I will look to find another reason to back it up!(but that's the future and not something one tries to preempt - let it roll.) .

 

[tinhat]

Is anyone watching the live gold price? Just got on the computer to see it has shot up in the last hour. Will be interesting to see where it is by our market opening tomorrow. I took a couple of specki positions in MML and SLR last week. Also have NST on the watch list.

 

[CanOz]

Is anyone watching the live gold price? Just got on the computer to see it has shot up in the last hour. Will be interesting to see where it is by our market opening tomorrow. I took a couple of specki positions in MML and SLR last week. Also have NST on the watch list.

Yeah its Cable weakness....

 

[trillionaire#1]

Is anyone watching the live gold price? Just got on the computer to see it has shot up in the last hour. Will be interesting to see where it is by our market opening tomorrow. I took a couple of specki positions in MML and SLR last week. Also have NST on the watch list.

Tinhat , I just had a look on Kitko live prices and saw the bid/ask at 1597/1598,will be interesting to see if it holds up there.
I bought :KCN,TRY,AQG,GRY,RSG,when they were being dumped a few weeks back ,looking good so far,but gold isnt the flavour of the month so ill keep a close eye on them.


I also nearly bought some MMl shares when in the $3 dollar range,but my portfolio was getting a bit gold heavy!

 

[CanOz]

Tinhat , I just had a look on Kitko live prices and saw the bid/ask at 1597/1598,will be interesting to see if it holds up there.
I bought :KCN,TRY,AQG,GRY,RSG,when they were being dumped a few weeks back ,looking good so far,but gold isnt the flavour of the month so ill keep a close eye on them.


I also nearly bought some MMl shares when in the $3 dollar range,but my portfolio was getting a bit gold heavy!

Cable dropped 75 pips, then gained it all back, then lost half again, then the DX opened and seems to be keeping a lid on gold...and oil.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I bought :KCN,TRY,AQG,GRY,RSG,when they were being dumped a few weeks back ,looking good so far,but gold isnt the flavour of the month so ill keep a close eye on them.


I also nearly bought some MMl shares when in the $3 dollar range,but my portfolio was getting a bit gold heavy!

I took a couple of specki positions in MML and SLR last week. Also have NST on the watch list.

Why do you guys muck around with gold miners when playing gold? It seems the miners are a terrible play on rising gold price. Why not just trade gold? Its much cheaper and after all its what your are actually trading but with a delta of 1 rather than..... -0.8!!

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I wouldn't say it's going gangbusters but at least those few I mentioned are holding up. The move in February was a 'head fake'..... just call me Harry Hindsight!

 

[notting]

Why do you guys muck around with gold miners when playing gold? . Why not just trade gold? Its much cheaper and after all its what your are actually trading but with a delta of 1 rather than..... -0.8!!

You don't get the percentage moves with gold as you do with the stocks.
Where's the fun in that?

It seems the miners are a terrible play on rising gold price

I love terrible.
Booo $$$$

 

[CanOz]

You don't get the percentage moves with gold as you do with the stocks.
Where's the fun in that?

This is not enough?

 

[Trembling Hand]

You don't get the percentage moves with gold as you do with the stocks.
Where's the fun in that?

So? that cuts both ways. Thats what newbies say when they start trading options on stocks.

why trade BHP for 10% when I can trade BHPXYZ call and get 200%

Like option trading its a myth. Do the maths and look at R:R, cost, spread, ability to sensible leverage, depth, slippage, no gaps, Delta and its strange that you would waste your capital on a hole in the ground.



Then of course there is the incredible ability of Directors to waste your capital.

just saying......

 

[notting]

This is not enough?

Enough for some, not for me. On this occasion.

Gold price, say in US$, for me, has far more conflicting handles than simple gold miners which if you know a bit about respond and sometimes pre-empt what gold is doing in general.

In this case it occurred that gold miners had already over reacted to gold, which for the moment is remaining below it's 200 day moving average whilst miners are showing a kind of temporary bottoming, then all that was needed was a sense for a small positive bounce in Gold for the miners to have a far higher kicker.

Even if gold did nothing, as it did for the first two days of the miners run, it was a safe enough bet because they have already overshot. If you look at what these things were doing when gold was on it's way up to 1600 it was quite a different story.
Overplayed trend.

As nothing goes down in a straight line (even gold), miners where on the canvas, global risk taking had been overplayed, a kind of pervasive general defensive market move was well due.

So with almost no short term risk for the canvassed gold stokes they seemed likely to offer a higher % bounce than gold. If this all played out.

That's the fairy tale that I was playing out, illuminated by what, from a logicians perspective would be deemed as random neuron receptor making mutated synapse link which seemed like a good idea at the time.