Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[kid hustlr]

still long TH?

 

[Trembling Hand]

still long TH?

Yep probably be in till the stops taken out.

 

[notting]

This guys short stops where at 1678ish

An interesting conversation between fundamentals and technical, especially as some of the hypothesis have played out already.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000136594

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Nice recovery?

 

[Porper]

Nice recovery?

View attachment 50541

Yes, your chart is very dramatic but means nothing. The Dow has actually gone up over 16.0% from the high on your chart...and that's including the so called crash.

Robert Prechters mob (Elliott Wave guru's) often post the chart in Gold to prove they were/are correct with their very bearish view...similar to yours;the end is nigh brigade. Last time I checked they were talking Dow below 1000...and they don't often (if ever) admit they are wrong. What's your prediction Uncle? Dow sub 1000? You'll be lucky if you see 10,000 ever again.

 

[notting]

The hard part with gold is that on one hand you have the positive value perception trade Vs inflation/money printing.
However you also have the safe haven trade coming off.
It's hard to know which was the major driver behind it's recent 10 year run.

It's had a good couple of weeks on the back of Japanese inflation hopes.
That trade is now priced in so where it goes now is not clear fundamentally.

We can technically note that it has bounced nicely off a recent 61.8 retrace.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

You'll be lucky if you see 10,000 ever again.

I'll keep that one for the archives

It was mainly to highlight the illusion of 'wealth' created with the current standard of 'value'?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Nice 'bubble'?

 

[notting]

I may be imagining things but I think there is an interesting interplay going on between, gold, Yen and US$.

Yen was highly shorted and expected to tank against US upon pre announcement of the new 2% inflation target.
The official announcement did not have the desired effect for the shorters, in fact, the yen gained against the US suprising alot of people and gold stopped it's upward stagger and started down.

Now Yen has started slipping agianst the US so gold could turn back up too and test that 1700

I guess you could call it inflation perception trade.

 

[explod]

Once talk begins to stir on possible rises in interest rates the fox will be in with the chook's.

From Harvey Organ overnight:-

Russia’s Central Bank said it will continue to buy gold bullion as it seeks to diversify its foreign reserves away from paper assets, such as the euro, it views as more risky.
At Davos, George Soros, one of the largest buyers of gold in the world today, warned of currency wars and that “interest rates are going to take a big leap” - probably this year.
Bank of America warned of a “bond crash” comparable to 1994 that would trigger a string of upsets across the world. In 1994, the bond crash bankrupted Orange Country, California, and set off the Tequila Crisis in Mexico.
Today, the world is much more fragile and the increasingly likely bond crash could lead to a Lehman style systemic crisis – but on an even greater scale.
These risks and the recent price drop has fuelled buying interest in physical metal and a minority of smart money gold buyers continue to diversify into allocated gold on the dip .

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.au/

 

[notting]

I'm not taking any significant positions on gold whilst it remains murky.

The fact that there has been a flow into high yield which is often the case when bull markets start does not bode well for a commodity that does nothing and pays nothing.

People will look next for growth stocks and that has started as well.
Like Apple having nothing wrong with it* other than the lack of a future kick butt new product gold could be treated in a similar way in the short term.

Also the inflation bond bubble play has been in play for years now - priced in.

You could argue a case for a drop to production cost levels.

On the bullish side some say just take off the last nine digits from the US debt and you have the gold price!
Some say when they lift the debt ceiling gold will go with it!

If gold stays below it's 200 day moving average for more than a few days, you'd wanna be careful.
It's tested it once retraced and has now poked it's toe below again.

Ausi gold miners will be great short targets because of the high Au$.

NCM is a higher beta mover than the gold price and is worth keeping an eye on for sentiment.

So there is little clarity at this moment.


*Apart from being hated for blatantly charging people hundreds of $$$$ for pultry $10 cost addditons like 8 more Gigs on a phone. Negative sentiment builds up and you end up paying!

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Once talk begins to stir on possible rises in interest rates the fox will be in with the chook's.

From Harvey Organ overnight:-



http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com.au/

I'm not taking any significant positions on gold whilst it remains murky.

The fact that there has been a flow into high yield which is often the case when bull markets start does not bode well for a commodity that does nothing and pays nothing.

People will look next for growth stocks and that has started as well.
Like Apple having nothing wrong with it* other than the lack of a future kick butt new product gold could be treated in a similar way in the short term.

Also the inflation bond bubble play has been in play for years now - priced in.

You could argue a case for a drop to production cost levels.

On the bullish side some say just take off the last nine digits from the US debt and you have the gold price!
Some say when they lift the debt ceiling gold will go with it!

If gold stays below it's 200 day moving average for more than a few days, you'd wanna be careful.
It's tested it once retraced and has now poked it's toe below again.

Ausi gold miners will be great short targets because of the high Au$.

But there is little clarity at this moment.


*Apart from being hated for blatantly charging people hundreds of $$$$ for pultry $10 cost addditons like 8 more Gigs on a phone. Negative sentiment builds up and you end up paying!

Thanks guys,

My only exposure to gold are some bars buried in the garden.

I find Gold impossible to understand as there are so many players with disparate and often crazy agendas.

Should the Indons or Chinese get sufficiently pissed off with us, it will give me great pleasure to have "Time Team" in 2000 years find my loot.

gg

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Spot pulled a real ring a ding ding.... got em all short then tried to dust em out. followed up by a roll the buying crowd! two hours is dumped 15$ that would have been a fun ride

 

[notting]

Getten Sqeezy, something’s gotta give.
Slightly bullish divergence.

 

[Mr Z]

Until the USDX breaks lower DECISIVELY it will pay to be gold wary. 84 ~ 85 is still possible on the USDX, until that move plays out OR the USDX breaks DECISIVELY lower gold is under pressure. Gold is due a BIG rally here BUT the odds are still favoring the bears in the near term. This could play out into April and turn "Sell in May" on its head this year.... Vatching Vaiting.... What a PITA is has been BUT I don't think we are quite there yet... possible gold fake out dead ahead, if so BUY IT!!!! JMO.

 

[hobo-jo]

If anyone is interested, there is a petition set up online to bring home Austrlia's Gold reserves, a very worth cause:

http://www.petitionbuzz.com/petitions/aussiegold

I've written a press release on the topic, so if anyone knows journalists who may like to cover or a politician who would take up the cause then please pass this link on to them:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/124737694/Australians-Seek-Gold-Repatriation-Bring-Home-Our-Gold

 

[banco]

If anyone is interested, there is a petition set up online to bring home Austrlia's Gold reserves, a very worth cause:

http://www.petitionbuzz.com/petitions/aussiegold

I've written a press release on the topic, so if anyone knows journalists who may like to cover or a politician who would take up the cause then please pass this link on to them:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/124737694/Australians-Seek-Gold-Repatriation-Bring-Home-Our-Gold

Really what is the issue with having it at the BOE?

 

[young-gun]

Really what is the issue with having it at the BOE?

None of the central banks trust each other anymore. It's widely believed that a lot are 'loaning' out gold, possibly more than they actually have. It's also believed that there is far more paper gold out there than actual physical.

There will eventually be a run for the door, and you don't want to one of the countries running out without any gold.

I personally think they should get it out of there asap, and also buy much much more.

 

[hobo-jo]

Really what is the issue with having it at the BOE?

By having it stored with the BoE we are exposing it to unnecessary counterparty risk. This is the same country which recently threatened to break international law and storm the Ecuadorian Embassy in order to extract another Australian treasure (Julian Assange ). We are going to trust this country with our Gold?

 

[banco]

By having it stored with the BoE we are exposing it to unnecessary counterparty risk. This is the same country which recently threatened to break international law and storm the Ecuadorian Embassy in order to extract another Australian treasure (Julian Assange ). We are going to trust this country with our Gold?

If you are the Government obviously you have to manage risks and the British stealing our gold would seem to be an infinitesimal risk.

I think you've been watching too many episodes of doomsday preppers. There's a psychology phd to be written on the fetishisation of gold by some. Incidentally they didn't threaten to storm the embassy.