Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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goldcore_bloomberg_chart1_04-09-12.png + goldcore_bloomberg_chart3_04-09-12.png

excerpt

Buying gold during the so-called summer doldrums has been a winning trade for most of the last 34 years. This is especially the case in the last eight years as gold averaged a gain of nearly 14% in just six months after the summer low.

We tend to advise a buy and hold strategy for the majority of clients.

For those who have a bit more of a risk appetite, an interesting strategy would be to buy at the start of September, sell at end of September and then buy back in on October 31st.

This is obviously more risky as one will incur extra costs and risk the possibility of missing out on capital gains in October.
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http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_bl...ber-best-months-own-gold#.UEXwO0ZD-3g.twitter
 
That's interesting Joules... Gold has a negative correlation with the USD does it not? I wonder if selling the Buck in September would have been a profitable strategy over time? Still, anyone who bought in May is definitely laughing at the seasonal buyers.

This is my first Gold chart/write up so I'm sorry if it's B grade :p:

We are trading within an ascending channel dating back to the beginning of August. We are also trading well above trend line support dating back to the end of June. We are currently retracing some of last night's gains but respecting this month's low of 1685 (1689, time of writing). I think we'll hit resistance at 1724, the March High, in the next week or so... Not sure where from there, good long term value either side (1920 and 1530).

If on the other hand, we've run out of steam and break 1685, next stop would be 1679 (50% Fib) and 1670 (61.8% Fib and channel support). Below the channel we have the 100% Fib at around 1643 and June trend line support at 1610 (and counting) - I doubt we'll be heading there just yet.

GOLDH4Sept2012.jpg
 
Note how when we cross Channel Support mid month, former support becomes resistance,then resistance is broken and my channel is once again respected? Pretty damn good trend lines if you ask me :cool:
 
Trembling Hand said:
it could be like this,,

View attachment 48878
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My chart has 3 trend lines and a very sparse looking fib, I fail to see the correlation.

I favor closes/opens over wicks, there isn't a single 4 hour close above channel resistance and there isn't a single 4 hour close below trend line support. As i said before, when channel support is breached it becomes the new resistance. Channel Res/Support are Parallel, the lines trace the over all direction of price movement... I really don't see what your problem is as you refuse to list it or post your own 4 hour chart. I have no problem with people providing constructive criticism.
 
OGRooney said:
That's interesting Joules... Gold has a negative correlation with the USD does it not? I wonder if selling the Buck in September would have been a profitable strategy over time? Still, anyone who bought in May is definitely laughing at the seasonal buyers.

This is my first Gold chart/write up so I'm sorry if it's B grade :p:

We are trading within an ascending channel dating back to the beginning of August. We are also trading well above trend line support dating back to the end of June. We are currently retracing some of last night's gains but respecting this month's low of 1685 (1689, time of writing). I think we'll hit resistance at 1724, the March High, in the next week or so... Not sure where from there, good long term value either side (1920 and 1530).

If on the other hand, we've run out of steam and break 1685, next stop would be 1679 (50% Fib) and 1670 (61.8% Fib and channel support). Below the channel we have the 100% Fib at around 1643 and June trend line support at 1610 (and counting) - I doubt we'll be heading there just yet.
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yeah, you got a few challenges in there with those lines.....youve drawn them to suit old pricing, without a clear-cut idea of where theyre going or what they mean......you'll keep adjusting them to infinity and never make any money or much worse.......worse i suspect....., something a tad more constructive.....the channel would be useful for an inverted head and shoulders guide, which you could argue is apparent here......secondly, you need to be completely clear on the ideas of time with the DX/Gold thinking...many times they run together, sometimes for weeks, they are not as the media tells you and many studies are to suit the narrative not the reality, so it's context minus the waffle, from a traders pov......i would tend to dispense with the channels and lines right here unless youre using them as a secondary adjunct to how youre reading a target price where say the swaps dealer/commercials might come back in and lean on the weak money that's being Drahged upwards....

one thing about lines on a chart, theyre old technology, theyre the original magic bullet from days of maps at sea, where are we going kinda thing .......thirdly the old generic fib settings for gold should never be used, try the new generic settings :p: like .70 and 1.272 (which work well on the xjo too) many fx will overshoot to exactly 107, you look often enough you'll see them, the trick, if there is a trick, that repeats oft enough, is to be ahead of them, i mean, when in high traffic look for them in advance as an extension within a correction not as a whole or single retracement, so, an extension within a retracement that acts as a suppliment to your ideas, otherwise you end up with "so, wot do i do now?" you are also more likely to find parallel channels by first reading the ratios correctly as they are one of the few times you can draw ahead of price and not behind it......ratios are a construct of likely targets and only slightly better than a drawn line, you still have to be trading the next bar.....your best lines are likely to be horizontal as you get back to price levels of value.......


as i said, lines are the original magic bullet....then comes the additions like ratios.....they all have the same thing in common, theyve been done to death and very few people make money from them and when they do it's not always because the lines gave them correct directions......lines have no empiric efficacey .....

if my reply comes across as elitist it is merely that i have skipped a few things between how you think and how i think.....it's common thing i see a lot of it on this forum
 
Thanks Joules, noted. IMO Lines are a priceless resource for identifying the trend, what a trader does from there is up to them. As far as support and resistance goes, Looking at all the data ie fibs/trendlines/and actual (horizontal) levels and then using the levels that correlate will no doubt give you a better result than relying on any one source of info alone. I think we've all experienced situations where setting your stop to a horizontal level is just not feasible.
 
OGRooney said:
Thanks Joules, noted. IMO Lines are a priceless resource for identifying the trend, what a trader does from there is up to them. As far as support and resistance goes, combining fibs/trendlines/and actual (horizontal) levels will no doubt give you a better result than relying on any one method alone. I think we've all experienced situations where setting your stop to a horizontal level is just not feasible.
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ok, thanks for the dialogue......the horizontal line idea is merely marking zones of value, more a what would major money do at this level or what would weak money do at this level idea......

as far as trend goes, for me, the definition is far more about how price is constructed when i'm looking at it from a linear point of view, is it impulsive or overlapping and pro-regressive .....and that's a quick view....i mean, i gave up saying well its a series of higher highs and higher lows so it must be trending coz i know that simple idea is going to be destroyed far more times than allowed to be valid....because context to where and at what time plays a far more dominant role simply because they call for real people to take real actions, not a supposition of a line on a chart.......you cannot foresee intent with a line on a chart........

ideas to consider
 
here's another way to see price........the SPX and HSI (almost) are posting massive outside up days......the SPX is posting a massive outside weekly bar.......how do you use lines to trade those?

you see, the scale of what i am talking about truncates you as a trader because the size of the moves take so long to form and how much time and how much $ are you going to rest on those extremes? Hwo would you know whats coming, afterall they could be huge hooks, youre now long and stuck with a postion that's slowly being killed and now you have to wait for the next line to exit.......the longer you trade, that is, the more trades you consider based on their own smaller movements, the faster your focus gets drawn away from large lines that cannot encompasse or hint at what's really going on......
 
OGRooney said:
I favor closes/opens over wicks, there isn't a single 4 hour close above channel resistance and there isn't a single 4 hour close below trend line support. As i said before, when channel support is breached it becomes the new resistance. Channel Res/Support are Parallel, the lines trace the over all direction of price movement... I really don't see what your problem is as you refuse to list it or post your own 4 hour chart. I have no problem with people providing constructive criticism.
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You have used closes for some points and tops/bottom of wicks for others. The top line just starts at some random bar in the middle of consolidation.

If it makes sense to you thats all good. I just thought it was a bit sloppy as far as showing the up trend. Yes its an up trend but to my eyes those lines are bogus especially the middle one.
 
Sept. 5, 2012, 4:17 p.m. EDT
Why is Putin stockpiling gold?
Commentary: Russia is bulking up its gold reserve

excerpt
Russia has more than doubled its gold reserves in the past five years. Putin has taken advantage of the financial crisis to build the world’s fifth-biggest gold pile in a handful of years, and is buying about half a billion dollars’ worth every month.
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on the other hand........

Soros: The Survival Of The Euro Is Now Assured ”” But It Could Still End In Tragedy
Joe Weisenthal | Sep. 9, 2012, 7:14 AM

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/soro...september-6-game-changer-2012-9#ixzz261PyLkHq

excerpt
He explains why he always supported the establishment of the Euro:

When it was only an aspiration, the European Union was what psychologists call a “phantastic object,” a desirable goal that captured many people’s imagination, including mine. I regarded it as the embodiment of an open society. There were five large states and a number of small ones and they all subscribed to the principles of democracy, individual freedom, human rights, and the rule of law. No nation or nationality was dominant. Although the Brussels bureaucracy was often accused of a “democratic deficit,” elected parliaments had to give approval of the major steps.
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