Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[CanOz]

Am I the only one surprised by the size of US gold reserves?

 

[Mr Z]

US reserves? No one can find anyone who claims to have seen them in quite a while ---> Who really knows?

The old joke is --->

General --> President there is no gold left in Fort Knox!

President --> Quick DOUBLE the guard!!!!

 

[Joules MM1]

derivatives for vol on gold

CFE White Paper Available by Russell Rhoads, CFA
by Administrator mkearney on 08-27-2012 05:45 PM - last edited on 08-27-2012 08:06 PM by rrhoads

The CBOE Futures Exchange recently published a white paper introducing trading the volatility of gold through futures on the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (GVZ). GVZ determines 30 day implied volatility of the price of gold through pricing of options on the SPDR Gold Shares Exchange Traded Fund (GLD). GLD is an excellent proxy for the price of gold and implied volatility of GLD options is a great indication of expected gold pricing volatility.


The paper describes the GVZ index, the relationship between GVZ and GLD, and methods for trading GVZ futures contracts. The paper may be downloaded for free at the following link –
http://cfe.cboe.com/products/GVZWhitePaper.pdf

Russell Rhoads
The Options Institute

http://communities.cboe.com/t5/What...per-Available-by-Russell-Rhoads-CFA/ba-p/3527

 

[Joules MM1]

"Is gold's bull market resuming?" Aug 24

video

http://www.nakedtrader.com/webcasts/dominic-picarda/is-gold's-bull-market-resuming.aspx

FT's Dominic Picarda for Investor's Chronicle.

 

[Joules MM1]

Investors set to coin it off latest gold rush

Analysts forecasting another big run up in the price of bullion; $2,000 by end of year?
August 27, 2012 1:55 pm ET
excerpt

“The euro zone has been quiet of late, but that doesn't mean the problems have disappeared,” said Jeffrey Rhodes, global head of precious metals at INTL FCStone Inc. (INTL), who expects gold to rally to $1,975 by year-end.

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Mark Hulbert Archives | Email alerts

Aug. 28, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EDT
Bullishness rising faster than gold
Commentary: Contrarians in recent days have become cautious
excerpt

...there’s some bad news to accompany the good: Gold timers have reacted to bullion’s recent strength by eagerly and enthusiastically jumping on the bullish bandwagon.

And, according to contrarian analysis, that suggests that the rally has gotten ahead of itself.

Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). It currently stands at 47.8%.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bullishness-rising-faster-than-gold-2012-08-28?mod=wsj_share_tweet

 

[Trembling Hand]

Gold and silver have been on a good run in spite of other risk assets going in the other direction. I wonder if it will be a false move brought on by a squeeze starting with the run up of platinum. Some of the softs & grains look to be in a bull market but this worthless stuff??

 

[Joules MM1]

Gold and silver have been on a good run in spite of other risk assets going in the other direction. I wonder if it will be a false move brought on by a squeeze starting with the run up of platinum. Some of the softs & grains look to be in a bull market but this worthless stuff??

i think the pop out of the daily low is bogus lift.....all dependant on one bloke saying something something koo-ee like a parrot....we need fear, man.....fear.....

 

[Mr Z]

Silver and the HUI are showing relative strength to gold, we are close but I still want to see if Ben disappointing will lead to the final lows. QE is close but it may not be as close as the market wants.... then there is all this fiscal cliff tax stuff in the US that prolly will not be addressed until post election, it should weigh on the general market until and if they kick it down the road. Kinda surprised that it has not hit the DJI harder already.

IMO things are being held in reserve until the Euronuts sort things a little better and it becomes clear what is happening with Morgan Stanley... the chatter about them has not subsided and a couple of Euro Banks are rumored to be in the same sort of trouble. Another Lehman event coming right up? I think they will be prepared if so and I think it may be the reason the QE tool is being kept in reserve.

Pure speculation OFF COURSE! but I am still thinking we are in the rough for a month or two.

 

[zac]

Im surprised no one has mentioned the one thing that the market is waiting on to decide whether to head further north or take profits.
All I say is Jackson Hole & Bernanke!

 

[Joules MM1]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/aug/31/eurozone-crisis-live-jackson-hole

excerpt

Finally, Bernanke speaks at the start of the Jackson Hole holiday camp for economists. Paul Donovan, managing director of global economics at UBS, says:

Those hoping for hints as to September policy action are likely to be disappointed. Hoping for a hint of the September FOMC outcome is probably wishing for the wrong thing anyway.

The value of the Fed Chairman's speech will be if he elaborates on the philosophy of monetary policy today. Economists want to understand how policy makers perceive policy is interacting with the economy (as so much has changed), to get a better understanding of longer term policy trends.

 

[young-gun]

Silver and the HUI are showing relative strength to gold, we are close but I still want to see if Ben disappointing will lead to the final lows. QE is close but it may not be as close as the market wants.... then there is all this fiscal cliff tax stuff in the US that prolly will not be addressed until post election, it should weigh on the general market until and if they kick it down the road. Kinda surprised that it has not hit the DJI harder already.

IMO things are being held in reserve until the Euronuts sort things a little better and it becomes clear what is happening with Morgan Stanley... the chatter about them has not subsided and a couple of Euro Banks are rumored to be in the same sort of trouble. Another Lehman event coming right up? I think they will be prepared if so and I think it may be the reason the QE tool is being kept in reserve.

Pure speculation OFF COURSE! but I am still thinking we are in the rough for a month or two.

Z do you think that another event of similar magnitutude to that of Lehmans could be contained given the current state of the global economy? Seems to only be hanging by a thread as it is. I guess being prepared and being able to contain are two different things.

 

[Mr Z]

Z do you think that another event of similar magnitutude to that of Lehmans could be contained given the current state of the global economy? Seems to only be hanging by a thread as it is. I guess being prepared and being able to contain are two different things.

Yes, with enough fresh money.... but then you create a bunch of other issues... but then they will have little choice. IMO in the end we will all pay for this through inflation, the silent taxation mechanism. Otherwise they allow failure, as capitalism demands, but I can't see that occurring on the scale needed to flush this system properly. Ironically the politics wouldn't support it, but IMO it is the fastest way back ---> see Iceland. Again JMO.

Also consider Japan's banks, many have been technically insolvent for years but due to political support they have not really had to confront the issue head on... nobody wanted to recognize the failure... but I think many of the issues are still there all these years later, 30 years later!

 

[Mr Z]

Im surprised no one has mentioned the one thing that the market is waiting on to decide whether to head further north or take profits.
All I say is Jackson Hole & Bernanke!

We did that way back...

+ I'm still not sure this has legs off the back of his recent words.

In fact I can't remember feeling this uncertain... this is probably a good sign LOL!

 

[explod]

We have clearly broken out of the pennant now to the upside. Very clear on the weekly

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

Also breached the 50 day moving average.

The rhetoric out of the Fed is wearing thin, the Indians are closing in and they can no longer drop interest rates. Notice the US$ dropped below important support last night. "Its all about the money Ralph"

The time is now arriving for the next leg up. Average of the last five since 01 is about 30%, the springs have been screwed tighter this time so I am calling a 50 to 60% run from now and exhaustion about March 13.

However as one to get it wrong often, we shall see.

 

[young-gun]

Yes, with enough fresh money.... but then you create a bunch of other issues... but then they will have little choice. IMO in the end we will all pay for this through inflation, the silent taxation mechanism. Otherwise they allow failure, as capitalism demands, but I can't see that occurring on the scale needed to flush this system properly. Ironically the politics wouldn't support it, but IMO it is the fastest way back ---> see Iceland. Again JMO.

Also consider Japan's banks, many have been technically insolvent for years but due to political support they have not really had to confront the issue head on... nobody wanted to recognize the failure... but I think many of the issues are still there all these years later, 30 years later!

So it's either deflation(which as you said they probably won't let happen, unless they can't) or hyper-inflation? or just alot of substantial inflation spread across decades? The only thing bad for gold(and silver) would be a heavy round of deflation, which imo would only temporarily hold gold and silver back.

Completely agree with you a total crash is the quickest way to cleanse the global economy, and get us back on track sooner. It would be a far better path than going down the same line as japan.

 

[sinner]

Still...still, but looking like pretty soon a real move will be required. At this point lower highs and lower lows, so the preference would be a support break. But that is some serious support there, as long as the current low holds it'll need 1556 for a higher high.

View attachment 48513

lulz serious support



Lots of wood to chop now.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

We might be at some kind of a sweet spot here if all goes as some suggest - The AU/USD is giving some good currency leverage at 105. I view the exchange rate as a harbinger of recession here in Oz as our manufacturing struggles to remain competitive and our government keeps adhering to the failed 'level playing field' in global trade - we play the game while everyone else still slaps duties and excise etc on their imports.....

Anyway, could be a good time for a pairs trade - short AUD/USD @1.05 & long gold @$1550.....

Time for an update, if only to keep some people amused

short AUD/USD @ minimum of 1.05 up to 1.06, current = 1.025, gain = minimum 2.5c & max 3.5c (leveraged)

long gold @$1550, current = $1650, gain = $100 per oz (physical)

See you on the other side comrades................:fan

Get physical gold......

[video=youtube_share;vWz9VN40nCA]http://youtu.be/vWz9VN40nCA[/video]

 

[CanOz]

Time for an update, if only to keep some people amused

short AUD/USD @ minimum of 1.05 up to 1.06, current = 1.025, gain = minimum 2.5c & max 3.5c (leveraged)

long gold @$1550, current = $1650, gain = $100 per oz (physical)

See you on the other side comrades................:fan

Get physical gold......

[video=youtube_share;vWz9VN40nCA]http://youtu.be/vWz9VN40nCA[/video]

Man up and show a statement...otherwise it's just another baseless claim.

CanOz

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Man up and show a statement...otherwise it's just another baseless claim.

CanOz

Whatever. I posted last month what the trade was. I posted today where the positions are at.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Whatever. I posted last month what the trade was. I posted today where the positions are at.

Yeah thats what i thought too. You get a fly in ya latte this morning Can?