Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Counting the gold isn't easy because they've got years of paperwork to go through some of the gold was basically rented out, some of it was swapped, some of it slipped into people's back pockets, and some were owned by the deceased.

They'll be borrowing against the gold IMO, there are only two ways for Trump to get out of this large surplus trade debt, either inflate it away or default on it. The US has the biggest stash of gold bullion at this stage so I guess they'll be king of the castle in this respect.
 
Potentially breaking out of this little box. Next stop probably a big round number.

View attachment 193655
I agree Sean. I've checked price action a few times during the day and once 2950 is breached there will be little resistance to getting to 3000. Last time I spent a few minutes watching the action 2946 + was being threatened with continuing orders. Beyond 3000 should not be that difficult either.

As you said though, where is the pullback?

gg
 
I thought it went without saying that it would boost the price of gold if it was ever discovered.

I think it's fair to say that even if Fort Knox was never looted, other significant gold stores have been and for similar reasons it has been kept secret. There are plenty of vaults and warehouses full of gold around the world, obviously some have been looted in a big world with so many, we just don't know which ones or how many.

But Fort Knox specifically? Sure, it would boost your gold's value, but that story going public would harm your life more than help it. We're currently in the most significant cold war in history, and we can't afford the USA to lose.
now of course it MIGHT have been hidden elsewhere so the Soviets couldn't nuke it ( Fort Knox and the gold ) making it 'untouchable ' for a century or two

and that is as good a theory as it is perfectly safe and intact in Fort Knox .. but you have to trust your government official about that ( for the last 50 years ) .. BTW surely there have been some additions and removals in the last 50 years of are all the doors welded shut ?
 
now of course it MIGHT have been hidden elsewhere so the Soviets couldn't nuke it ( Fort Knox and the gold ) making it 'untouchable ' for a century or two

and that is as good a theory as it is perfectly safe and intact in Fort Knox .. but you have to trust your government official about that ( for the last 50 years ) .. BTW surely there have been some additions and removals in the last 50 years of are all the doors welded shut ?
cold war ?

the US has lost , it is no longer self-sufficient and runs a persistent trade deficit , sure it looks good compared to those European/British clowns , but a failed Japan would collapse that

the question is who did they lose to , China at least has a trade surplus , Russia is basically self-sufficient and now a trade surplus , and then there is India getting a little stronger each year
 
Counting the gold isn't easy because they've got years of paperwork to go through some of the gold was basically rented out, some of it was swapped, some of it slipped into people's back pockets, and some were owned by the deceased.

They'll be borrowing against the gold IMO, there are only two ways for Trump to get out of this large surplus trade debt, either inflate it away or default on it. The US has the biggest stash of gold bullion at this stage so I guess they'll be king of the castle in this respect.
but .but , but the US has THOUSANDS of computer servers , keeping track can't be as hard as say the department of motor vehicles database , or even the passport checking at a major airport

DOES the US have the biggest stash .. Russia for instance was sending 90% of the local gold production straight into their central bank , AND they buy a few ton from the international markets

( and those Eurocrats haven't managed to loot the Russian/Soviet Treasury despite trying for more than 200 years )
 
oh my goodness ... gotta hit US$3k very soon. Its wonder hasn't yet smashed through all them so called resistance levels and into that most special benchmark, from US3k an on into space... guessing the time was not yet right.

How big is this trampoline bounce gunna be from US $2600?? Hmmm
True excitement personified, so riveting.

Have a very nice night.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
but .but , but the US has THOUSANDS of computer servers , keeping track can't be as hard as say the department of motor vehicles database , or even the passport checking at a major airport

DOES the US have the biggest stash .. Russia for instance was sending 90% of the local gold production straight into their central bank , AND they buy a few ton from the international markets

( and those Eurocrats haven't managed to loot the Russian/Soviet Treasury despite trying for more than 200 years )
It's been there previous to the internet being invented and the last audit was in the 1950s.

I bet most of the gold is there, I think the conspiracy theorists are going rank on this one, might need my tin foil hat.



1740053552040.png
 
Over the past 10 weeks, the world has witnessed large physical gold bullion flows into the US from all parts of the globe.

The vault stocks of gold in NY COMEX vaults have increased by approximately 20 million (M) oz.

The CEO of US financial services company StoneX, that has a large commodity trading division, estimates that more than 2,000 tons (54M oz.) of gold have been moved into the US over the past 8 weeks. So 34M+ oz. of gold have gone elsewhere than just COMEX vaults.

During this period it has also become clear that the estimated 400M oz. of London market cash/spot gold contracts for immediate gold ownership and settlement have widely been shown in default. And that was for an estimated 10M oz. of gold draw-down on London vaults.
The mumbled argument that 8 weeks of delay to London delivery is simply due to a slow Bank of England gold lease facility is moot - leasing gold is what is done by market participants when they are asked to deliver metal that they do not have.
London gold spot/cash contract holders are under no illusion now - they’ve been had.
The game switches now to silently and rapidly securing actual physical gold and to exit the London market where the promissory note gold scam has been overseen and coordinated by the Bank of England for decades.

Two very large Swiss refineries Metalor and Argor-Heraeus have started to impose surcharges on their gold production and Argor Hareaeus has stopped production of some gold products.

This is as we would expect as the remaining 390M oz. of London gold spot/cash contract owners begin to mobilize to secure physical metal.

This is just getting started.


jog on
duc
 
News Corp electronic published article:

‘Uncharted territory’: Gold price surges towards record high of $US3000​

The price of gold is surging as billions of dollars worth of bars fly across the Atlantic - and this underground vault in London is at the centre of a wild conspiracy.

Frank Chung
February 20, 2025 - 6:48AM

Big banks are flying billions of dollars worth of gold bars on commercial planes across the Atlantic.
Vaults in New York are filling up to record levels as physical gold buying goes “apocalyptic”.

Long delays retrieving gold from the Bank of England are sparking conspiracy theories about missing bullion — fuelled by Elon Musk’s hints of auditing America’s Fort Knox.

“I don’t get very excited about all that stuff — I tend to regard it as a bit in the realm of crackpot theories,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist at AMP.

“I suspect the Bank of England still has lots of gold.”

The gold market has witnessed unprecedented moves in recent months as the price of the precious metal continues to break record highs, sparking frenzied speculation in a market prone to fringe ideas at the best of times.

So what exactly is going on?

Gold price nears $US3000

The price of gold hit a record of $US2946 per troy ounce in London on Wednesday, its 11th record in 2025 and the latest milestone in a years-long rally since the Covid pandemic in 2020, when it crossed $US2000 for the first time.


Gold has risen 44 per cent over the past 12 months and is up 11 per cent this year alone, smashing share market gains. The ASX200 is up 5 per cent this year, while the S&P500 is up 4 per cent.

The remarkable performance of gold even as stocks rallied strongly is unusual for a traditional hedge asset.

“The expectation is gold could not only be punching over $US3000 but closer to $US3500 and there’s bets on for it to be $US4000,” said Jessica Amir, market strategist at Moomoo.

Dr Oliver said those predictions were possible.

“It’s been making record highs — we’re sort of in uncharted territory,” he said. “I would probably say it’s got more upside but predicting [the price] gets a bit harder.”

What’s driving the surge?

Global gold demand is being driven by a range of factors including tariffs, inflation, US interest rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, credit crunch fears and expectations of a share market correction.

Central banks have been on a gold buying spree to boost their reserves, with institutional and retail investors also getting in on the action.

“There’s about eight different factors supporting the case for gold,” said Ms Amir, adding history shows there is likely more upside after recent US Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Over the last three Fed rate cutting cycles in 2002, 2007 and 2019 gold has rallied on average 100 per cent, but is only up 13 per cent since the latest cutting cycle started in September.

“History never does repeat but it always rhymes,” said Ms Amir. “We might expect gold to rally another 80 per cent.”

Central banks ‘hoover up’ gold

Total gold demand rose 1 per cent year-on-year in the last three months of 2024 to reach a new quarterly high and contribute to a record annual total of 4974 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council.

“Central banks continued to hoover up gold at an eye-watering pace — buying exceeded 1000 tonnes for the third year in a row, accelerating sharply in Q4 to 333 tonnes,” the body notes.

National reserves of gold held by central banks account for around one fifth of all the gold mined throughout history, and the pace has picked up in recent years.

China, the biggest central bank buyer, went on an 18-month buying spree up until May last year, and recently restarted after a six-month halt.

“I think the main things driving it higher have been central bank buying [which] started after 2022, when some central banks saw what happened to Russia with the sanctions and concluded they should diversify away from holding US dollar assets,” said Dr Oliver.

Moreover, China has just instructed its 10 largest insurance groups to start buying gold and hold 1 per cent of assets in gold.

“They’re moving money away from bonds into gold,” said Ms Amir. “That is likely to be to the tune of $US30 billion, but once the pilot program is up and running it means about $US43 billion.”


Sucked across the Atlantic

Then there are fears that President Donald Trump could impose tariffs on movements of precious metals into the US.

Billions of dollars worth of physical gold bars are being moved from London, the world’s leading gold market, into New York as investors seek to get ahead of any potential tariffs.

The record outflows have put unprecedented strain on London’s gold market, with delays in physical gold deliveries blowing out to four to eight weeks, compared with the typical two to three days promised by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).

“This disruption stems from a rapid outflow of gold to US COMEX [Commodity Exchange] warehouses, with 12.2 million ounces shipped over two months,” USA Gold said in a note last month.

“While LBMA data shows 279 million ounces stored in London vaults as of December 2024, only 36 million ounces (the ‘float’) are theoretically available for immediate market use, revealing a critical liquidity shortfall against an estimated 380 million ounces of outstanding spot/cash contracts. The delays effectively constitute technical defaults on these contracts, as sellers cannot meet delivery timelines.”

Long delays spark conspiracies

The logistical hurdles have forced the Bank of England to assure the market that it is not running out of gold.

“There’s still plenty of gold,” BoE governor Andrew Bailey told Sky News earlier this month.

Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, said there was a “shortage in London’s bullion market, but it’s a shortage of manpower and trucks”.

“Longer-term however, the Bank of England’s role as a custody for foreign central banks wanting to tap the London market may be dented,” he told the broadcaster.

“It’s already seen stockpiles edge lower in recent years, even amid a surge of emerging-market central bank buying, as reserves managers worry over sanctions and other political risks vis-a-vis the west versus the rest.”

Mr Bailey downplayed the gold exodus and shipping delays in testimony before the UK Treasury Committee on January 29.

“Please, this is a not a big thing, really,” he said.

“Gold doesn’t play the role it used to play. So if we’d been having this discussion 100 years ago we’d have been in some very different world because we were on the gold standard.”

He insisted London “remains the major gold market in the world”. “If you’re involved in that market and you want to trade or use your gold you really need to have it in London,” he said.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), for its part, stores its 80 tonnes of gold with the BoE, despite occasional calls for repatriation over the years. Audits in 2022, 2019 and 2013 have confirmed the “existence and accuracy” of the RBA’s gold holdings.

Gold buying ‘has gone apocalyptic’

The Kobeissi Letter, run by financial analyst Adam Kobeissi, highlighted the scale of inflows into New York COMEX vaults that have put physical gold holdings above 2020 pandemic levels.

“Physical gold buying has gone apocalyptic,” the outlet wrote in a viral X thread.

“Gold inventories in the three largest COMEX gold vaults just surged by 15 million ounces in two months. January alone saw 19-plus thousand contracts delivered. Never in history have we seen buying like this. Meanwhile, the US has switched from being a net gold exporter to a net gold importer in November 2024.”

Big banks like JP Morgan are driving a large part of these flows.

In another strange and unintended consequence of Mr Trump’s tariff threats, they are being forced to transport billions of dollars worth of gold via commercial planes from London to New York, The Wall Street Journal reported last week.

That’s because the price of gold in London, which typically moves in sync with New York, has traded about $US20 lower since early December.

Banks that sold gold futures in New York now face losses if they buy back those contracts at the higher prices — so are opting instead to ship their physical gold from London to fulfil their contracts.
Not your typical gold rush

The Kobeissi Letter said a number of “strange” macro trends — including gold’s strength over the past year despite higher US interest rates and the rising US dollar — suggested a “major pivot from the norm”.

“We expect gold to continue to serve as the global hedge against inflation and uncertainty,” it said.

“And this is particularly the case as US deficit spending is out of control. The US has borrowed $US838 billion in the first four months of FY 2025. This is crushing bond prices as treasury yields are driven higher. Gold’s position as the global hedge has only grown as a result.”

It added, “To top it off, the US money supply grew 3.9 per cent year-on-year, its biggest increase since 2022. After reaching its deepest contraction in 65 years, money printing is back.”

Ms Amir agreed fears of a global debt-to-GDP ratios, recently flagged as a serious concern by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), were a major factor.

“The US has a record deficit and record debt and they haven’t yet resolved how they’re going to repay,” she said.

“Only two months ago [former Treasury Secretary] Janet Yellen said the US was in serious trouble about not being able to meet their repayments. Everyone’s turned a blind eye to that. Every time the world or indeed the US is experiencing unresolved credit crunch issues gold has hit a record high.”

Stocks overdue for correction

The global scramble by all sundry to seemingly get their hands on as much gold as possible might lead many to ask — do they know something we don’t?

“The short answer would be yes,” said Ms Amir.

In addition to credit crunch fears, “there are serious worries about overvaluations of global stock markets”.

“Many people believe stock markets globally are due for a mean reversion, a serious pullback, so that’s another factor why institutions including investment managers and ETFs, indeed central banks, are buying gold,” she said.

But Dr Oliver cautioned that “historically I wouldn’t regard gold as a good predictor of what the share market does”.

“There are geopolitical fears which are playing a part, so there is some safe haven demand,” he said.

“It may be the case that on top of this, because gold has this upwards momentum and shares have some issues particularly in the US regarding valuations, some investors are saying gold might be a better bet because it’s got better technicals.”

It may “also be a signal that the US dollar is topping”, Dr Oliver added.

“It looks to have peaked in mid-January, since then the trend has been down. Because gold is priced in US dollars, whenever the US dollar goes down it makes it easier for gold to go up.”

Is the gold still in Fort Knox?

Mr Musk, meanwhile, threw a hand grenade into the online gold chatter this week by suggesting his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) may look into Fort Knox, a heavily secured gold reserve in Kentucky.

Official Treasury Department data shows there are more than 147 million troy ounces of gold stored at the US Army facility, more than any other location in the US.

But Fort Knox has a strict no-visitors policy, and Mr Musk on Monday expressed surprise that there was no annual review of the stash.

“Who is confirming that gold wasn’t stolen from Fort Knox? Maybe it’s there, maybe it’s not,” he wrote on X in response to a post by Texas Senator Mike Lee saying he had repeatedly been denied access.

“That gold is owned by the American public! We want to know if it’s still there.”

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who also raised the issue with Mr Musk, told Fox News he had also tried for a decade to see the gold for himself “to make sure it’s all there”.

“I think some of them may not think it needs to be audited all the time, but I think the more sunlight, the better, more transparency, the better,” he said.

frank.chung@news.com.au

EDIT: Delete a photo
 
While it is interesting to watch the ascent or descent of the gold price one should never forget how the behaviour of the end users impacts the price. We tend to compress this behaviour in to charts of inflation, interest rates, spending and saving without being cognisant of the short term important uses of Gold. Think of where Gold is mostly bought and exchanged, at festivals for example. The Chinese, Muslim and Indian cousins would trump the West in buying for festivals. However overall spending on significant dates such as Christmas, Chinese New Year, End of Ramadan and Diwali remains robust.

Another important, if not the most important reason to buy or gift Gold is sex. Marriage, for those members born in the last 40 years is surprisingly still quite popular among the Chinese, Muslim and Hindu cousins. During these cathartic events prior to consummation families come together and exchange the cost of the loss of freedom of the husband and the burden of a wife via the exchange of goods. Gold figures highly as a medium of celebration at these events. Economic tribulations in sunny climes has led to a decrease in marriage but it is now said to be picking up again. Thus the demand for Gold will pick up via the increase in marriages now that we leave the early year festivals behind and look forward to the Muslim and Hindu cousins celebrating later in the year.

While we may argue about the macro events such as tariffs and the lack of Gold in London, the leasing and theft of Gold from Fort Knox and the effects of the parlous mental health of the Orange Emperor on the price, underlying it all is retail, spending on Gold for adornment and celebration, for ensuring a spot in the afterlife and for being able to indulge in sex.

Thus to recent price action for short term traders in gold. There has been a cluster of activity in Gold in all markets between $2950 and $2930, and I believe this area will provide some support in the task of punching through $3000 and resistance against recovery on retracements below it. I expect the price to stabilise in this area, under $3000 or below for some time, as it did before going up through $2000.

The attached article from Kitco.com touches on these themes and the chart illustrates the clustering of buyers and sellers in all Gold markets over the last 3 days.

So, enjoy your trading in Gold, but don't forget why it is such a popular investment, sexual activity and the afterlife.

1740087047043.png


gg
 
now of course it MIGHT have been hidden elsewhere so the Soviets couldn't nuke it ( Fort Knox and the gold ) making it 'untouchable ' for a century or two

and that is as good a theory as it is perfectly safe and intact in Fort Knox .. but you have to trust your government official about that ( for the last 50 years ) .. BTW surely there have been some additions and removals in the last 50 years of are all the doors welded shut ?

Dropping a nuke on Fort Knox wouldn't make the gold radioactive. I've been to Hiroshima, no one worries about radioactivity, there's a building still standing directly under the blast (due to some interesting quirks of physics) and it's safe to go inside it.

The gold at Fort Knox isn't just sitting on the surface or under a tarp transparent to ionising radiation.

A nuke would make a mess of the building, but the gold bars (whatever is actually there) wouldn't be harmed by radiation.

Hypothetically though, if you had gold which was radioactive and would be "untouchable for a century or two", it would be interesting to know what it would be worth today. If in a century or two it would be worth as much as any other gold, and all the gold bars radioactive or not are just going to sit around in secure storage, why would the value be different? Maybe the radioactive bars would be more valuable because they have an inbuilt theft deterrent system which won't have to be restored for a century or two.
 
Another important, if not the most important reason to buy or gift Gold is sex. Marriage, for those members born in the last 40 years is surprisingly still quite popular among the Chinese, Muslim and Hindu cousins. During these cathartic events prior to consummation families come together and exchange the cost of the loss of freedom of the husband and the burden of a wife via the exchange of goods. Gold figures highly as a medium of celebration at these events. Economic tribulations in sunny climes has led to a decrease in marriage but it is now said to be picking up again. Thus the demand for Gold will pick up via the increase in marriages now that we leave the early year festivals behind and look forward to the Muslim and Hindu cousins celebrating later in the year.

While we may argue about the macro events such as tariffs and the lack of Gold in London, the leasing and theft of Gold from Fort Knox and the effects of the parlous mental health of the Orange Emperor on the price, underlying it all is retail, spending on Gold for adornment and celebration, for ensuring a spot in the afterlife and for being able to indulge in sex.

Thus to recent price action for short term traders in gold. There has been a cluster of activity in Gold in all markets between $2950 and $2930, and I believe this area will provide some support in the task of punching through $3000 and resistance against recovery on retracements below it. I expect the price to stabilise in this area, under $3000 or below for some time, as it did before going up through $2000.

The attached article from Kitco.com touches on these themes and the chart illustrates the clustering of buyers and sellers in all Gold markets over the last 3 days.

So, enjoy your trading in Gold, but don't forget why it is such a popular investment, sexual activity and the afterlife.


gg
I always thought bride price was measured in the number of camels, but there you go

(one hump or two?)
 
Last year some of us were talking about the very large cup and handle showing up on the gold chart. I noticed this and it was one of the reasons I bought in early last year. The target was approximately $3,100. I hadn't seen anyone talking about it and after I noticed it I had to go searching online to find discussions about it, and then further after the beakout more and more people were talking about it, but in the last few months as we've come closer to that target, no one is mentioning it any more. I wonder if it will still have any relevance? Likely not since the rally has coincided with economic and sentimental conditions favourable to a sustained run and the C&H was probably just one thing contributing to the stellar rally we've seen over the last year or so.

Crossing $3,000 is going to be an interesting event.
 
I always thought bride price was measured in the number of camels, but there you go

(one hump or two?)
Never had the distinction of buying a camel for marriage I’d imagine one would pay in gold. The Houthi word for camel sounds distinctly like that for gold.

Also known as a homophone. But let’s not go too much off topic.

gg
 
I always thought bride price was measured in the number of camels, but there you go

(one hump or two?)

Depends where you go. In the region I'm in now it was traditionally silver and later gold, but these days they prefer FIAT. I'm currently near a river which is an international border and both sides of the river prefer the currency of the country with the stronger one.

Speaking of dowries/'bride price', I was kidnapped last month and held in a remote area of the poorer country on the other side of the river. A family refused to let me go, demanding I marry their daughter and pay a dowry of approximately AU$20,000 (she'd be lucky to fetch more than a few hundred dollars locally, but hey, when a white man is in your home and a hard day of work in your area pays under a dollar, opportunistically have a go and shoot for the moon, right?).

I'll skip the details (definitely quite a traumatic experience), but I did manage to get my way out, and with the nearest town being four hours away and the first three and a half of them being down rough dirt tracks, and that town having the nearest ATM, one way or another, however things went, they probably weren't ever going to get their money. And after some creative bluffing and... well, perhaps the most traumatic and definitely the most awkward moment of my life and getting myself out of there, a couple of weeks later the family got a message to me saying if I'm still willing to be her husband they'll waive the dowry in full! She's genuinely a nice girl, I'm not entirely fond the rest of the family though.

Point is, traditionally it was silver, and once gold was available that was preferable, but these days they want the strongest of the nearby FIAT currencies. Pretty sure they'd accept chickens in a pinch.
 
Last year some of us were talking about the very large cup and handle showing up on the gold chart. I noticed this and it was one of the reasons I bought in early last year. The target was approximately $3,100. I hadn't seen anyone talking about it and after I noticed it I had to go searching online to find discussions about it, and then further after the beakout more and more people were talking about it, but in the last few months as we've come closer to that target, no one is mentioning it any more. I wonder if it will still have any relevance? Likely not since the rally has coincided with economic and sentimental conditions favourable to a sustained run and the C&H was probably just one thing contributing to the stellar rally we've seen over the last year or so.

Crossing $3,000 is going to be an interesting event.

The target we discussed here a couple of years ago was around $2700.
 
Dropping a nuke on Fort Knox wouldn't make the gold radioactive. I've been to Hiroshima, no one worries about radioactivity, there's a building still standing directly under the blast (due to some interesting quirks of physics) and it's safe to go inside it.

The gold at Fort Knox isn't just sitting on the surface or under a tarp transparent to ionising radiation.

A nuke would make a mess of the building, but the gold bars (whatever is actually there) wouldn't be harmed by radiation.

Hypothetically though, if you had gold which was radioactive and would be "untouchable for a century or two", it would be interesting to know what it would be worth today. If in a century or two it would be worth as much as any other gold, and all the gold bars radioactive or not are just going to sit around in secure storage, why would the value be different? Maybe the radioactive bars would be more valuable because they have an inbuilt theft deterrent system which won't have to be restored for a century or two.
that was just one small ( border-line critical mass )device

Russian has THOUSANDS of much bigger warheads and the new hyper-sonic ones don't even seem to need a payload the heat/plasma triggers the reactions in the target area

but since Russia hasn't threatened that , MAYBE they believe the vaults are virtually empty

do they sit around in storage , and are NOT moved from bay to bay to settle major account moves

now i still think the bars are just heavily over-committed , but until the forensic audit .. the rumors and theories will multiply for example how much stolen gold ( from other nations is in there) .. somebody looted Iraq and Libya
 
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