Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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on the small side tradeable side, there's nothing i'm seeing that says gold is a buy right now.......i'm moostly on the short side......we have a large triangle playing out with rejection low of 1430 but that's all subjective conjecture right now.....the two major up-plays were both news driven energy releases and look like sell set-ups......even if the COT is skewed it only means less shorters not more aggressive buyers.......i'd want to see an unprompted buy-up that looks impulsive to get set on a daily frame.....
 
The options OI profile is interesting, supports the idea of a low in the $1400's... conversely silver hasn't got the same sort of OI, 25 & 23 are indicated but the OI is not huge. I'm thinking that at the gold lows we may well see relative strength in silver and other areas... HUI maybe. To me relative strength in subordinates will be one of the indications we are done. IMO an exit plan or should I say repositioning plan is unfolding in this second half of July. You can "evaluate" my ideas with 20/20 hindsight come August :D Just sticking it out there!
 
Gold equities are distinctly unloved, so are they signalling before the fact or just oversold?

Took another small long pos in NCM today, although the market depth still on the sellers side....
 
Hated is a little closer to the mark! They are discounting sub 1K gold it seems... HISTORIC undervaluation IMO.
 
CHART OF THE DAY: How Gold Could Surge To $8,300 By 2015 Matthew Boesler | Jul. 11, 2012, 4:42 PM


chart-of-the-day-bull-market-july-2012.jpg

excerpt

Applying the Pareto principle to the current gold price, we find a theoretical price target of USD 8,300. If we were to assume that the last trend phase were to start in August 2012 at USD 1,600 and the bull market had begun in August 2001, the parabolic phase would last 29 more months and thus end in spring 2015. The price target according to the 80/20 principle is therefore USD 8,300.
Click to expand...

http://www.businessinsider.com/char...principle-gold-8300-2015-2012-7#ixzz20PlcDGvV
 
Mr Z said:
Hated is a little closer to the mark! They are discounting sub 1K gold it seems... HISTORIC undervaluation IMO.
Click to expand...

....but blood in the streets for NCM by the look of it - still have 80% of position to go yet.....nibble here......inverse H&S forming......too soon to the party as usual.....
 
Uncle Festivus said:
Not exactly sure what the point of the ASF blog thing is for really - could just have posted it here??

It's not blood in the streets time yet so waiting still......
Click to expand...

so i can keep track of the posts......blood in the streets is likely cause the opposite effect to what most people think will happen......
 
quite poss, if only to avoid hail mary ideas which most gold threads seem to be girdled with.......for me these are technical ideas mixed with who's actually doing what.....do i think all the 5g to 8g calls and all the fiat-is-dead calls means there's too many bulls still?.......probably.......
 
Target $1460... will reevaluate if/when we get there or if we break $1630 upside. Until then we are preforming dentistry on chickens, largely a pointless & fruitless activity!
 
Just got this...

... email --->

"Final hours!! Portfolio construction in a bear market"

From Kohler!

PROOF positive we are near the end of this rout.

Ends near USDX 85.5 IMO :D
 
lulz......not hard to see how threads develop into subtle posturing.....that's the one good thing about auctions; everyone gets to be right at their own expense

:p:
 
Gold Swap Dealers Go Net Long For Only Third Time 16 July 2012

(Bloomberg) -- Gold Traders Trim Bets on Price Rise, CFTC Data Shows
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators decreased their net-long position in New York gold futures in the week ended July 10, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 126,235 contracts on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report. Net-long positions fell by 10,980 contracts, or 8 percent, from a week earlier.
Click to expand...

and further still.....

Another bullish indicator is the CFTC data last week. While COMEX gold market participants in total reduced their net long positions - the swap dealers, relatively larger traders and big banks, went net long for just the third time.

Gene Arensberg of the Got Gold Report (see Commentary) reports that “as of Tuesday, July 10, as gold closed on the Cash Market in New York at $1,567.16, Swap Dealer commercial traders reported holding 54,038 gold contracts long and 53,239 short for a combined net long position of 799 lots according to data released by the CFTC on July 13.”

This is a bullish development as there has been a long period of accumulation by the swap dealers in recent months and this change of ownership may mean that COMEX gold has now transferred to stronger hands on the long side who are getting into position for gold’s next leg higher in this secular bull market.
Click to expand...

https://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_b...net-long-only-third-time#.UAQVaRC5-gQ.twitter
 

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