Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Mr Z]

I am finding the OI interesting, I'm really starting to think that many futures players are moving away from the market given the Refco, MF Global and PFG Best scandals. This could be a significant market altering phenomena. Effectively it will be the smaller players that are leaving, that means that there is less "dumb money" in the market, less for the muscle money to scare out and make profits on. This lower liquidity will make "business as usual" much harder and will likely be a semi permanent feature of the market until confidence is restored. So yeah, Adam is correct is associating the lower OI with a good entry point BUT the only difference this time is that the reason for the lower OI may be two fold, fear of the market and more importantly fear of the market place. Higher prices may not bring the liquidity back as before, this will likely accentuate all future moves = VOLATILITY! If so this will further scare away the shallower pockets... every eco system needs the bottom of the food chain.

We do indeed live in interesting times!

 

[Joules MM1]

yep

and here come the numpty press genera :dimbulb:

july 27, 2012, 1:47 PM

Big Gold Short-Covering Rally May Be Very Near

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/07/27/big-gold-short-covering-rally-may-be-very-near/

 

[Uncle Festivus]

We might be at some kind of a sweet spot here if all goes as some suggest - The AU/USD is giving some good currency leverage at 105. I view the exchange rate as a harbinger of recession here in Oz as our manufacturing struggles to remain competitive and our government keeps adhering to the failed 'level playing field' in global trade - we play the game while everyone else still slaps duties and excise etc on their imports.....

Anyway, could be a good time for a pairs trade - short AUD/USD @1.05 & long gold @$1550.....

 

[Joules MM1]

Saxo, non-comms

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=...nts/381/Commodity+CFTC_073012.pdf&chrome=true

 

[Mr Z]

Dubai Gold Exchange hits new trading record

 

[Joules MM1]

Dubai Gold Exchange hits new trading record

Earlier last month, the Exchange commenced daily trading at 7am - which was 90 minutes earlier than normal, in a bid to gain a competitive edge on the Indian market.

Officials had said that the extended trading time would provide exchange participants with a 30-minute window before the exchange traded currency derivatives markets opened in India.

exchanges opening, amalgamating, extending hours.....these are significant events......hmmmmm.....do they mark tops or lows ?

if they were shrinking hours or impeding higher carry costs or breaking up agencies, that might trigger a rush to a low.......what we're seeing is the opposite......more like a pop.....how long can the metal keep popping?

smells like a rush to me.....meh.....do we care? ...........$$

 

[Mr Z]

It is curious to note that they are expanding while the Comex is contracting at a record rate. Surely the Comex activity will come back on the next upward move BUT the question remains will volume expand to the degree that it would have prior to these scandals.

Are we seeing those that can move away from the US system?

Is this the start of what would be a significant trend?

I believe that it is inevitable that as the US loses dominance we will see other centers compete to dominate futures trading in the significant commodities. However confusing inevitable with imminent is an easy mistake to make given the titanic nature of the global shifts that are underway.

These "issues" that the US Futures brokerage system have could be the trigger for an irreversible loss of trust and custom. It is amazing to me that they are not making BIG efforts to shaw up confidence and assure transparency. Given what has happened would you trust a US futures house? Remember that PFG Best passed an audit of accounts not long before the poo hit the fan and certainly after the money had gone!

 

[Joules MM1]

silver has all the right markers in its current uptrend today......dragging gold with it......kickin n screaming

 

[Joules MM1]

ECB thinks the unthinkable, action likely weeks away


By Paul Carrel and Paul Taylor

FRANKFURT/PARIS | Mon Jul 30, 2012 10:31am EDT

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/30/us-ecb-options-idUSBRE86T0OC20120730

=================================================================

Here Is Every Tool In The Fed's Arsenal

Mamta Badkar | Jul. 28, 2012, 8:15 AM

http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-policy-tools-2012-7#ixzz22ClWVrBm

 

[Mr Z]

It would seem like the logical response BUT the Hun's don't really want to play, there may even be legal hurdles and it looks almost certain to be challenged legally by German opponents to the idea. Mario Draghi has staked his credibility on this without getting full support for the idea, if he fares badly here the markets will ignore him in future. His words where either brave and well judged or a very stupid move.... we get to find out by the end of the month... what fun! You are riding the most expensive roller coaster in history

 

[Joules MM1]

It would seem like the logical response BUT the Hun's don't really want to play, there may even be legal hurdles and it looks almost certain to be challenged legally by German opponents to the idea. Mario Draghi has staked his credibility on this without getting full support for the idea, if he fares badly here the markets will ignore him in future. His words where either brave and well judged or a very stupid move.... we get to find out by the end of the month... what fun! You are riding the most expensive roller coaster in history

crazy horse......

here's a common refrain encountered this morn

Douglas Kass ‏@DougKass

The just announced better than expected Chicago PMI reduces the likelihood of more cowbell by Fed this week.

 

[Mr Z]

The "benevolent" crack dealer is making them go cold turkey for a while, seems that the junkies got a little too lippy and need to be brought back into line.

Odds are...

 

[Joules MM1]

backs to the wall pumping this thing with the COT last line of offense

Monday, July 30, 2012
Most Important Silver COT Chart for 2012

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2012/0...-all-the-chart-below-which-he-says-is-th.html

excerpt:

 

[Uncle Festivus]

The "benevolent" crack dealer is making them go cold turkey for a while, seems that the junkies got a little too lippy and need to be brought back into line.

Odds are...

Investing Public says 'No'! No CONfidence, no money velocity!

There is a palpable lack of public confidence really in all things financial & political going on globally. The duds just keep coming, MF Global was but just the start.......well a major one, plenty of smaller players had been taken out previously but not big enough for any significance...

Has anyone 'priced in' a hung US Congress, much like the rest of the world - the public just don't know who or what to believe anymore, and then having to deal with the 'fiscal cliff' 2 months later?

EU - Draghi to do 'whatever it takes'?? with who's money? Like they could have or should have done it already if it was remotely possible??

China still contracting...there goes that golden egg for AU...

105c aud/usd short set, $1540au gold looking tempting for entry....slingshot?

 

[Mr Z]

What a yawn!

I'm starting to think that the entire market is setup to "buy the fact" this time around.

Talk about marking time...

Looks like the BOE have left it to the ECB and they look to be hamstrung by the Bundesbank.

So far the market appears to have discount almost all outcomes so we get no more than a small disappointment trade whenever anything happens.

Has it come to this... are we all just sitting waiting for the Fed to fire the starting gun?

 

[Joules MM1]

Is the Gold Rush Over?
CNBCBy Sharon Epperson | CNBC – 18 hours ago



excerpts

Sales of gold coins at the U.S. Mint plunged to about 30,000 for one-ounce gold coins in July - that's less than half the number sold in the same month last year and more than six times fewer than at the peak of the financial crisis in 2008.

The gold market has witnessed this cycle before. Gold coin sales historically spike in times of uncertainty - most recently during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the 1999 Y2K scare, and in October 1987, after Black Monday. Once the initial cause of panic levels off, sales return to more normalized levels, Colas says.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-...RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

 

[Mr Z]

Is the GFC over?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Has it come to this... are we all just sitting waiting for the Fed to fire the starting gun?

Um.....yes.

Is the GFC over?

Um.....no.

 

[Joules MM1]

russian warships move to syria........geez that must be a fun place to be right now.....short term strength in the metal at the mo

 

[Joules MM1]

video
http://goldstocktrades.com/blog/2012/08/03/a-major-turning-point-for-gold-silver-and-u-s-treasuries/
excerpt

The weak hands inform that the golden bubble may have been broken and the warning inscription written on the entrance to hell “abandon all hope, yea who enter here” may be applicable. We do not agree and may be considering this recent move a fake out and that we may witness a reversal sooner rather than later.