Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Joules MM1 said:
in the meantime, actual fiats gain in buying power.......
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Yes, I've always said that, I have physical cash & physical gold - just waiting for the sign to increse holdings of both.

The other side of the equation is - so what is the alternative plan? You can either continue to believe that other humans, notably the same ones who created this mess or those of their ilk, will save the system, or they won't. In which case what is your plan 'B'? That's even if you beleive there is a mess to contend with in the first place?

Right now I think those who do not advocate holding gold should be the ones to put forward reasons to continue trusting fiat and those who control it??
 
jitter buggin gold bugs have plenty to be opto about with an elephant up bar forming......needs convincing followthrough monday........and get through 1610

elephant bar gold green 290612.jpg
 
arent equities sposed to decline when gold ascends? .......

.....nah matemarkets together 290612.jpg

yesterday all these same candescent greens were screaming sells .......lulz

shorts : :22_yikes:
 
Joules MM1 said:
arent equities sposed to decline when gold ascends? .......

.....nah mate

yesterday all these same candescent greens were screaming sells .......lulz

shorts : :22_yikes:
Click to expand...

Do any rules apply anymore?

Short covering rally nicely timed for end of qtr window dressing.

Mr Market is very sick......where is the price discovery?

Gold needs a catalyst to go higher from here, like another QE, but with the Dow at this level not likely??
 
As a chartist I have begun looking at things through a much longer time frame. Gold is one of the things I look at. I am neither bullish or bearish, simply an interested bystander interpresting charts as they appear to me. This is a long term quarterly chart for gold and I am seeing what appears to be a bearish 'megaphone top'. It also appears there may be a Head and Shoulders pattern developing. I am using a low noise line chart in order to see the dips and highs clearly without the distortion of candlesticks or bars.
 

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Ann said:
As a chartist I have begun looking at things through a much longer time frame. Gold is one of the things I look at. I am neither bullish or bearish, simply an interested bystander interpresting charts as they appear to me. This is a long term quarterly chart for gold and I am seeing what appears to be a bearish 'megaphone top'. It also appears there may be a Head and Shoulders pattern developing. I am using a low noise line chart in order to see the dips and highs clearly without the distortion of candlesticks or bars.
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Ann, with respect. Consider the drawbacks of a line chart, they do not give exact levels as you can see from a daily patterning of the recent period where we see equal levels (close-enough) that dismisses the megaphone idea, secondly these long range charts are prone to forcing you into hindsight trades as you cant trade any of that history, whereas, breaking the pattern down to it's lowest form might give you a better idea of the story coming......megaphones are one of those aboutish ideas lacking in precise entries, exits or measurements and cannot clearly define where it ends unless the trader places faith that a crossing of a line on a chart signifies to trade....the market doesnt care about lines on a chart......head and shoulders come under the same category more often than not due to their spectacular failure rate, however, there is a high coincidence of measurements met where the left shoulder base to head-tip is met by 100% extension in the direction of the nested set, so, you could place faith in trading in that direction based upon (A) setting a stop at the peak of the right shoulder and (B) you are reliant on other traders acting on the same signal in a self-fulfilling way, again, with the number of time that a head and shoulders pattern simply vanishes you'd have to ask at what point and with how much risk you want to take with this with what is almost a random approach, in other words, using a broad brush-stroke idea of the magaphone and head and shoulders ideas really requires much deeper set of questions than does the pattern fit a boxed set of ideas.......you could say that the early authors of these ideas who had no internet or computing power were extremely ahead of their time in formulating these ideas, however, they were attemtping to tell price where it was going and they authored their ideas based on proving those idea without the luxury of time to see the failure rate.......

what's important with these regimes is to work them forward, starting at the essence of the auction process rather than starting at the broadest picturesque moment.......the thinking is vastly different ......

the idea of these huge shapes is twofold, first and obviously, these were designed to preprogramme a course of action, to box price and foretell the future with the limits of data and thinking at the time, secondly, they are a faith idea and leave the trader aloof or distracted to what's really going on in the auction......

now, think about this carefully; imagine going to a live auction where you can only bid in one direction (up!) as is usually the way......ask youself, if there are several products with only slight changes to the features of each batch of products how come some get bid up on a higher percentage than others even tho the features might be better and then ask yourself how do i draw lines and place restrictions upon the price movement that might tell me where the price is likely to go........afterall, how far out in time do you really need to go.....at the end of the day, when you go to pull the trigger, the point of deciding where to enter or exit a trade is going to be vastly different to the scheme of a few lines on a large historic chart

i would have thought that line chart provide more noise and distortion.....as it brings less clarity, less focus on more recent pricing and the wider or softer focus the lens the less likely supply and demand can be seen...... they can be combined to create a whole picture.....

there seems to be an ongoing cottage industry of what might work in the trade process and we pay a lot for that education and as the auction process is like no other industry most dont realise that how they pay is through lost time.....this industry (a loose term at best!) is one of the few where people can be on a level playing field with vastly different ideas about how to engage within it.....they can have the same account size with the same trade facility and given the same period of time come away with vastly different results and that all comes down to one thing: knowledge and a plan on how to implement that knowledge......

last friday, there was, within the confines of larger pattern(s) as youve shown here, was a break-out upside, there were several pullbacks within that larger break-out, there were smaller moves within those retracements.....the difference trade wise is they were all actionable and correctly read produce income within a short period of time and allowed thought for mondays trade set-up.....i am not sure i can say the same of most head and shoulders and especially not megaphones......faith in pattern(s) is one thing, trading them is vastly different in terms of not just the dollars but the equally important ingredient; time

just ideas
 
silver and gold bulls take heart

excerpt:

SILVER COT REPORT 6/29/12
Commercials picked up 1,144 longs but covered a massive -3,799 shorts to end the week with 43.27% of all open interest, a mammoth change since last week, and now stand as a group at -60,055,000 ounces net short, almost 25,000,000 less net short ounces from the previous week.
Technically, this is one for the history books.
Very few weeks have ever seen these huge percentage point changes!
Click to expand...

http://www.silverdoctors.com/silver...s (SilverDoct ors)&utm_content=Google Reader

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Just Like 1965, These Are Golden Years

excerpt:
WSJ columnist Simon Constable visits Mean Street at the onset of a seminal moment in world economics: central banks are hoarding gold at amounts not seen since 1965. (Photo: Bloomberg News)
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video:
http://live.wsj.com/video/just-like...ight4#!7D420 101-C848-4A9C-9467-65A06C8F3EDB

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excerpt:
For the reporting week, price fell about $49 and total OI dropped 4,874 to 413,618. Now, check this out: The Gold cartel net short position was reduced by 19,531 contracts to just 144,170 and a net short ratio at 1.93:1.
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http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/184659#comment-184659

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1/06/12 blog :
here's a good reason not to be invested in the downside persepctive
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COT – Funds High Short Positions Major Rally Fuel for Gold, Silver

excerpt:
HOUSTON – As a courtesy to our blog readership, just below is a video update we shared with Got Gold Report Subscribers on Monday, May 28. The video deals mainly with the changes in the most recent CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report for gold and silver futures, including some exciting developments in the structure of the very low Managed Money (hedge funds, commodity trading advisors, etc.) net long position.
Click to expand...

video
 
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Joules MM1 said:
Ann, with respect. Consider the drawbacks of a line chart, they do not give exact levels as you can see from a daily patterning of the recent period where we see equal levels............

....... just ideas
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Hi Joules

Thanks for the long and thoughtful response, (the forum would not accept the full quote, sorry) much of which I can agree with you looking at charts for the sake of a short term trade. Monthly and quarterly charts are past history for trading purposes. However, I am going through an exercise at the moment of looking at charts in an entirely different way than I have in the past 10 or so years I have been charting. I have a purpose specific reason for this.

Chart reading is an art form in my opinion, sometimes I see it properly and sometimes I don't. However over years and years of experience in the field I have seen miraculous things on charts and head and shoulders are a reality if they are read correctly. Currently the XAU is experiencing the results of a fullfilled head and shoulders pattern. Chart to follow.

In support of charts and charting, recently I was Googling for some historic charts I had lost. Unexpectedly in my search I found one of my old old charts done back in 2006 where I believed I saw a long term cup and handle pattern emerging. For fun I did the swing trade math calculations for the folks on that particular forum (goldismoney) on the chart, put it up and promptly forgot it. When I found the chart again I decided to see how close I got to the final dollar calculation on the first chart. On the 11 August 2006 I calculated Barrick Gold would rise to $52.50 on 28 January 2008 it had its high of $53.57 before it fell back. Charts to follow

Regards

Ann
 

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back to $2,000 by the end of the year, most likely fueled by a return to risk and a flaring of geopolitical tension. remember, gold is being treated like a risk asset now.
 
Ann said:
Hi Joules

Thanks for the long and thoughtful response, (the forum would not accept the full quote, sorry) much of which I can agree with you looking at charts ....
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Ann, having your own thread looks like a good idea so your posts arent lost in the quagmire of stuff......i like making long diatribe posts on the weekend and look forward to indulging the pattern gambit soon......there's a few traders i've followed although they have tended to be fund managers who use these larger patterns, such as Jeff Spots from Spots on Trends and https://twitter.com/#!/rr_trades (with DeMark) and they have a strong ethic with clearly efficacy for these patterns ......there's no doubt about the patterns......having made my first trade in 1983 i think i've seen every pattern there is and these days, as you can see in earlier posts on the S&P 500 thread, if an analogous pattern appears to be emerging i'll add that as a rick profile....not withstanding i am trading the next bar not the previous one.....

much to chat on, i think

thankyou, Ann

julian
 
Tysonboss1 said:
Gold is and always has been a risk asset, just like any other commodity.
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Always has been and there is a lot of risk about now.

Currently insurance against money printing and the deflating value of money in the bank, term deposits and bonds.

It has been for 6000 years and a few naysayers are not going to alter that well embedded custom.
 
tiny moves on gold today, at least something to extract compared to other markets.....

Bank of England to restart printing presses as outlook dims
Wednesday, July 04, 2012 6:01:00 PM (GMT-05:00)

excerpt
LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is expected to fire up its printing presses for a third round of economic stimulus later on Thursday just two months after shutting them down.
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http://shorttext.com/nbNXYW3KCKkA

June was one of Britain's worst months in over three years, purchasing managers' surveys showed this week, cementing views that the Bank would be forced to act. [GB/PMIS]

"It confirms the subdued nature of economic activity in the UK and the need for more monetary stimulus," said David Page at Lloyds Banking Group, who sees the BoE's asset purchases eventually reaching a total 500 billion pounds -- or about one third of Britain's GDP.
Click to expand...
 

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