Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[wayneL]

Tks Duc.

 

[coyotte]

ASX-GOLD

1/10th oz = 1 share

As long as we don't end up like S/A miners did a few years ago, with a rising Oz dollar -- POG imho is lack of faith in the LOCAL currency not a foreign one.

 

[chops_a_must]

I heard a rumour this morning about the IMF selling off its gold reserves. They have the third largest stock pile in the world. Could rattle a few cages if they do.

They have threatened to do this before but I don't anything has ever come of it.

 

[chops_a_must]

Here we are actually:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/11/22/bloomberg/bxgold.php

 

[fleathedog]

On the proposed IMF sales:

The IMF finance department in February recommended selling 11 million ounces of gold, or about 11 percent of its stockpile.

According to world gold council stats, there was 8.2m ounces of demand in 2005, so one can imagine what 11m coming onto the market in a rush would do.

The US is opposed to it so far, and if they did sell, it would be done over several years. But definately a big overhang if they go ahead...

Maybe they could sell it to the Chinese. Get their much talked about diversification done in one fell swoop without disrupting the market.

 

[coyotte]

GOLD = $AU / 10

 

[coyotte]

" C " Truncated ???

 

[Sean K]

On the proposed IMF sales:

According to world gold council stats, there was 8.2m ounces of demand in 2005, so one can imagine what 11m coming onto the market in a rush would do.

The US is opposed to it so far, and if they did sell, it would be done over several years. But definately a big overhang if they go ahead...

Maybe they could sell it to the Chinese. Get their much talked about diversification done in one fell swoop without disrupting the market.

Flea, what's the date and source of this info? Thanks.

 

[fleathedog]

The link to the article is here:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/11...berg/bxgold.php

And for the stats go the world gold council website and under the stats page it's just under 'end user demand'.

 

[Dr Doom]

Heres another view of the Aus gold market by the recently revived Gold index XGD. Golds stocks leading before the gold price again??

 

[Kauri]

Well, I'm very close to getting another potential long entry on gold, but with my estimated target my RR doesn't stack up. so will watch and if a Wii develops and is shallow enough I may be able to enter there.

 

[wayneL]

Hmmm the USD is getting absolutely slaughtered, lifting gold.

I was pontificating on whether to take both trades (long gold, short DX) Ended up taking gold and not shorting the dollar.

The DX would have been the better trade but gold is working anyway as a result.

 

[vert]

yes yes yes, the usd is getting spanked, just came home from dinner and wow check this out. (sorry for the excitement im quite new to this). thanks wayne for the usd index code, have been trying to find a live chart and here it has been the whole time on sonray the platform i use.
gold is currently above the high earlier this month of 636.35, next resistance is high of 640.34 in early september, i think when the us open it will be on and a new short term high will be made.

cheers wayne (aka vert)
ps your location "wind"ina,do you kite by any chance?

 

[wayneL]

yes yes yes, the usd is getting spanked, just came home from dinner and wow check this out. (sorry for the excitement im quite new to this). thanks wayne for the usd index code, have been trying to find a live chart and here it has been the whole time on sonray the platform i use.
gold is currently above the high earlier this month of 636.35, next resistance is high of 640.34 in early september, i think when the us open it will be on and a new short term high will be made.

cheers wayne (aka vert)
ps your location "wind"ina,do you kite by any chance?

I'm a bit broken down for that sort of stuff. but would definately be in it if I could.

Re the dollar code: It will change when the Dec contract expires to DX H7

Here is the contract specs: http://www.nybot.com/marketInfo/contractSpecs/showIndividualContractSpecs.asp?productGroupID=29

Cheers

 

[vert]

thanks wayne, good to get more info. im only trading in stocks at the moment but definately something i will look at doing later on when i get more experience under the belt. i just like checking out the charts for indications where stocks are headed as i follow mining and exploration.
silver has broken short term high of 13.21 currently 13.42, i hold bsg, looking forward to next week.

if you keen to have a go on a kite let us know.

 

[Nick Radge]

BOTTOM LINE
23/11:
EW Trend: Up
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: n/a
9/11:
EW Trend: ?
Price Trend: Up
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: n/a

LAYMANS ANALYSIS
23/11:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (1 mins 44 secs)
I'm going to recommend Gold as a BUY if prices push through $635.0 (basis Dec contract). That may not occur immediately and the entry trigger may be adjusted accordingly. I say this because last night's session showed some seller interest and in turn we may see this sideways zone turn into a triangle before moving higher. No harm done so long as $604.0 remains intact. Those that do trade futures, then a protective stop should be placed below $614.50. Gold stocks or warrants may offer an alternative, but selecting the better correlated instrument will be the difference between profit and loss here. The upside target zone is $670 to $680. With the seller interest showing and the Thanksgiving holiday, we may see some further sideways action before prices start higher.
9/11:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 30 secs)
The small gap mentioned in the last review was filled and was followed by a high close for that session. A very bullish sign and one that did in fact follow through, at least for a week or so. The $615.20 level was subsequently broken. This level should now provide support but the more important level for me is back at $604.00. If this is seen again then perhaps Gold will move lower to test the recent lows. The prior session shows that sellers had entered the market - high volume, a tight range and a close near the lows - is the signal of sellers entering. Gold will not be able to move higher until these sellers have been removed. My focus is on $604.00 and I'd be hesitant to do anything until the seller situation has been resolved one way or other.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
23/11:
Be on the alert for a triangular shaped wave-iv here simply because of last nights selling and the holiday. We may see a drift and therefore a triangle. Nonetheless I'm still looking for upside advances to complete the wave-5 unless of course we decline below $604.0. The 161.8x wave-i targets $671.0 and the 61.8x wave-iii targets $682.0. I like the look of Gold for the next month or so, as long as the level $604.0 remains in place.
9/11:
We have seen a clear 5-wave pattern down followed by what is currently a 3-wave advance. This latest advance may turn into a 5-wave structure but in order for that bullish scenario to remain valid we must have $604.00 hold its ground. Any break thereof places Gold back into a bearish state. These sellers aligned with the Democrats win has me a little concerned for an ongoing bullish argument. An interesting fact coinciding with last nights weakness, or in fact creating last nights weakness is the history of the Democrats. In the last 48 years of Democrat control of the Government, the Purchasing Power of the US dollar has declined by some 88% compared to 67% under a Republican Government. Anything that directly impacts the US dollar at present will be placed under the spotlight for serious consideration and if this is the case now then Gold will also be under close scrutiny by investors. Was last night the sign of things to come? Most people will view a declining dollar as inflationary, however, if that is combined with declining asset prices, we then have deflationary situation. On another side note, the stock markets perform dramatically better under a Democratic Government than under Republicans.




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[Sean K]

I'm going to recommend Gold as a BUY if prices push through $635.0 (basis Dec contract).

Thanks Nick, I'm glad my rudamentary, amateur TA almost agrees with you. I set my new gold uptrend simply based on a break through the last high at $640 and not much else.

With the dust settled after the US midterms, $US has been sold off, resulting in golds appreciation.

I get the impression that the EW count has been altered recently to reflect the likelihood of gold up trend........

 

[BSD]

Prospect of USD weakness in light of imminent rate cut

Gold going up

 

[Sean K]

Prospect of USD weakness in light of imminent rate cut

Gold going up

Oil also heading back too, to support Au.

I've been slowly adding to my gold holdings the past few weeks expecting this, but I'm not overcommitting. Still waiting for push through $640. Have a perception that there are more and more bullish gold reports coming out in past 2 weeks, but may be my golden eye....If $US and oil both react to support gold (down and up) then gold could gain significant momentum and the speculators will be jumping back in.

 

[bvbfan]

Worth noting that COMEX was closed Friday and only the new CBOT electronic contract traded on Friday in the US
Big shift as comex has always been the standard there.