Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[nizar]

Prospect of USD weakness in light of imminent rate cut

Gold going up

Imminent rate cut?
I think not.

I would expect US reports this week to show high inflation due to rising oil prices, interest rate fears creeping in, i mean, they have to somehow manipulate the data to show this even if its not correct.

If the yanks dont increase interest rates, they need to, this week at least talk up the prospects as such speculation may be enough to support the dollar.

If not, then the USD will tank (nothing will make this happen quicker than a aret cut), taking with it US equity markets, and consequently, i dont think our markets will be spared.

 

[Sean K]

Gold steadily climbing, which is a nice change from the choppy last 6 months, now looking more and more positive. NR states a buy on gold over $635, and it's breaking that now. I do not believe that this is technically the right level to be absolute confident in an uptrend, but maybe we are close. Being a long term gold bull I am a little biased so MYOMU. And DYOR, blah blah blah.

Another day, another steady climb.....

Break through $640 imminent and time to top up on some positions.

 

[Sean K]

Daily gold update:

I'm feeling more bullish today. Probably 60% on the bull indicator for gold to start new uptrend. Once again, gold tested $620 and went through $630 overnight, finishing in the high $620s. To spend this time consolidating above a key resistance level is very good imo.

My gold bull indicator is something like this atm:

$620 50% chance of renewing long term up trend.
$625 55%
$630 60%
$635 65%
$640 70%

I don't think I could give a rating higher than 70% chance for gold to continue going up, too many variables.

Under $620 then the odds of gold continuing sideways greatly increase. Under $600 and it's down.

Gold broken $640 putting the kennas gold bull indicator at 70%, but it needs to hold. I think the rise was a bit rapid for my liking and it's likely to pull back a fraction.

 

[Kauri]

$640 area has been a bit of a hurdle for the past 6 months.. :1zhelp:

 

[markrmau]

Sorry to rain on the gold parade (and I am heavily long gold stocks), but I think this is a false break. The SP500 has been powering along and I think for now, investors will stick with US stocks and the US dollar.

Soon.....but not just yet (the USD will be crunched).

 

[Sean K]

Sorry to rain on the gold parade (and I am heavily long gold stocks), but I think this is a false break. The SP500 has been powering along and I think for now, investors will stick with US stocks and the US dollar.

Soon.....but not just yet (the USD will be crunched).

On the kennas gold bull indicator it's a 70% chance of $US crunch.

 

[Sean K]

$US at 20 month low against the Euro. $AUD heading towards $0.80. Oil up. Without any new geopolitical turmoil, gold hanging at around $640......US stocks smashed over night on weak results, lower spending. Housing market just about to pop. Safe place for cash: gold or under the mattress.

Gold still at 70% to resume the bull.

 

[Sean K]

A Pause For Gold And Some Hope For Oil
FN Arena News - November 28 2006

All crude oil needs is one or two daily closing prices above US$60 per barrel to trigger the market turning optimistic again, technical chartists at Barclays Capital argue in their latest update on the market. Problem is, however, this hasn't happened thus far.

There's good news as well with the chartists sticking to their view that downside risks should remain limited from here on. They see their view supported by the fact that "price action is now at its largest discount to the 200-day average since 1986" (see chart).

The chartists also foresee that gold will now pause for a while following its strong run up recently. Daily momentum oscillators are pushing back into overbought territory, they report.

The chartists remain of the view that weekly patterns/Elliott wave counts suggest there are still higher highs to come for gold. Barclays expects the choppy ranges to give way to the topside later this year/into next year.

 

[Sean K]

Gold holding above Nick Radges buy recommendation price above $635, but just under my key breakout level of $640, therefore I'm back on the fence about whether this is the start of new uptrend. (about 68% on the kennas gold bull indicator)

I don't think the Europeans are very happy about the Euro strength and will be trying to bring the $US back up a notch which will be a negative on gold.

One thing that has not been driving this recent gold push is negative geopolitics which has the potential, when combined with the $US weakness to really give gold a push. But, if both sort themselves out, then POG might slide back...

 

[CanOz]

Is that enough breakout for you Kennas?

 

[scsl]

Wow! It's currently at $644.70.

 

[Magdoran]

Wow! It's currently at $644.70.

Hmmm, could be a drive up - next time point for me is 15 Dec... Pattern does look bullish currently...

 

[Sean K]

Is that enough breakout for you Kennas?

It's well over the 70% kennas gold bull indicator now.

Happy to have been topping up a little on my goldies and adding here and there. Probabilities now pointing to uptrend.

 

[CanOz]

Amazing open in NY, i wonder what caused the spike? News? US Dollar?

You think this will drive resource stocks today?

 

[Young Gun]

The golden bull has finally arived gold closed to end above $650 US oz ...
Im getting ready for the run.

 

[lancer]

gold spike due to weak us dollar and oil hike combined

 

[Sean K]

Amazing open in NY, i wonder what caused the spike? News? US Dollar?

You think this will drive resource stocks today?

Probably see 2-4% on all the gold stocks if it holds up in Asia. You'd expect it to go limit up. That is, unless this has been factored in with the recent gains in goldies. Some have had a great run. Great! So, maybe after the initial drive this morning profit takers will come in to subdue?

 

[CanOz]

Aussie dollar put on .7% against the greenback...should be some money come into the market today, into gold, oil, nickel, zinc....also being the first of the month, should be a good session....should be.

 

[Sean K]

Gold looks to be heading to $650 now and on to $660. I think this will be a resistance point and it may stall a bit, possible consolidate, or even correct slightly, before maybe finishing at around $660 by end of year. Pending any 'unusual' events before the end of the year.

Geopolitical disaster - gold higher.
$US further weakness - higher.
Oil up - higher.
Natural disaster causing havock in US - higher.
Peace and love and stability in the world - lower.
US economy sound, housing soft landing, interest rates steady - lower.

 

[CanOz]

EKENNAMICS... i love it.