Gold Price - Where is it heading?

aclassic · 15 September 2011

Thanks for the links chaps.
I find it all plausible and justified and I have invested in AU and pms but I can't help thinking that the grubby banks worldwide and the pollies will not find ways to suppress anything that doesn't suit them or loose grip of the spot dog's tail.
cheers

sinner · 15 September 2011

Re: Listen.

Mr Z said:
Central bank gold buying and China's role in the gold market - Julian Phillips

Word on the street from Tokyo open

"Interbank reports China bid spot XAU $1815 into NY close, further bid interest expected from same $1725-$1750."

Uncle Festivus · 16 September 2011

Looking good - risk ON again as CB's pump the rhetoric & the printing machine.

Looking like a last chance dip to top up, just don't know where the entry will be???

explod · 16 September 2011

Uncle Festivus said:
Looking good - risk ON again as CB's pump the rhetoric & the printing machine.

Looking like a last chance dip to top up, just don't know where the entry will be???

Always hard to pick Uncle. The rhetoric, blah blah and last weeks Moodies outlook took the US$ index to a high for the quarter but notice it struggling to hold and I would suggest the overnight drop would indicate that gold will soon be back on the move up again.

And from Dan Norcini this morning.

http://www.traderslog.com/quotes-charts/?sym=DX!&gclid=CID0tIWCoqYCFUaApAodpHmHng

That brings us back to gold once again as it continues under assault from the Central Bankers who seemed deathly terrified of it making its way to the $2,000 mark. Ever since the takedown in the wee hours of the night as chronicled here http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/09/central-banks-waging-war-on-gold-at.html gold has been on the defensive. That assault intensified near the $1880 level and it is that level which has thus far proven to have been unpenetrable.

Failing there, it subsequently retreated to a chart support level near $1840, which failed to stem its bleeding whereupon it then dropped to test the next support level near $1820. That too failed as did psychological support at round number $1800. It is now flirting with the next support region centered near the $1780 level. Failure there and it should try to test the level near $1755. Beyond this there is not a lot in the way of chart support until it gets down near the $1725 - $1730 region. We will have to see where the big buyers related to the upcoming festival seasons in Asia make their appearance to stem this latest setback in price.

Before gold can hope to get anything going to the upside it will have to recapture $1840.

A weekly close at this level could be bearish for awhile.

http://freeserv.dukascopy.com/chart...b381043d066574841a356d7dfa79c7879646d32707572

But again any further fall off in the US dollar at this point makes me believe we would be near to the current bottom and support level.

Mr Z · 16 September 2011

Re: Listen.

sinner said:
Word on the street from Tokyo open

"Interbank reports China bid spot XAU $1815 into NY close, further bid interest expected from same $1725-$1750."

50 DMA, yes that would be widely expected to produce support from most players. Given the time of year etc I would have those levels as a buy.

FWIW.

The commercials are getting very short here and there is talk of hedging coming back. I'm not sure that carries the weight it once did, the small specs are getting quite short, tops typically come about when they are very long.

Mr Z · 16 September 2011

Uncle Festivus said:
Looking good - risk ON again as CB's pump the rhetoric & the printing machine.

Looking like a last chance dip to top up, just don't know where the entry will be???

I love the way that gold regularly flips between being refereed too as a "risk on" or "risk off" trade... it must been seen as the schizo metal out there in J6P land.

This whole risk on risk off concept has passed its use by IMO, I am not seeing that the market is that simple now that the government safe havens are being seen a little more clearly for what they really are. I would take a lump of copper over government paper returning 1/10 of sweet FA any day!

I love the 70's term for UST's ---> "Certificates of confiscation" :

Mr Z · 16 September 2011

Notice the degree of sync between the USD and gold has increased with the safe haven trade. Anyone willing to bet that Ben will shatter that in days to come?

explod · 16 September 2011

Mr Z said:
Notice the degree of sync between the USD and gold has increased with the safe haven trade. Anyone willing to bet that Ben will shatter that in days to come?

Well they could certainly do with a few more good dollars, but I think the chopper will be painting a careful mix of jargon. However his short hand does seem to be unravelling.

ConfB]l[/B]idence is the big key with a very nervy market.

adamim1 · 16 September 2011

Bens speeches are a mess and don't give out anything. He knows the market hangs off his every word and he uses it to his advantage.

Mr Z · 16 September 2011

Bloomberg: Gold-Backed Dollar Puts ‘Fair Value’ at $10,000 an Ounce

sinner · 16 September 2011

$10,000 is an awfully low price target, isn't it? :

(from fofoa.blogspot.com)

Mr Z · 16 September 2011

Actually yes that could be the case. Many years ago I did some relativity exhaustive "what if" exercises, they contained plenty of assumptions but nothing that wasn't without a % precedent... anyway I threw up a number in the 30K range as being entirely achievable if the Fed didn't grow a back bone and deal with this monster that they have created. At the time my 70's bull market based $5700 target was normally met with snorts of laughter so I only mentioned the 30K target once or twice in public. Saying 30K gold was liable to get you certified back then.... now it only sounds moderately loony.

Suffice to say I think this has a looooooong away to go!

2K Silver anyone?

LOL!

Uncle Festivus · 16 September 2011

Mr Z said:
I love the way that gold regularly flips between being refereed too as a "risk on" or "risk off" trade... it must been seen as the schizo metal out there in J6P land.

Actually I was referring to equities etc as the risk ON trade.

I think the CB's might have finally got a loose act together to give the impression of saving the world, again, and will take the opportunity to take down gold while they can ie goldies due to take some profits off the table, short term overbought, noises from CB's about saving the EU etc etc

I note too that the gov has lowered it's deposit guarantee to $250,000, apparently because things are so good now ie Mission Accomplished! Should we take it as a contrary signal - a sign to start taking out cash? It's a surprisingly cumbersome thing to do actually and then store it safely, so looking to top up physical gold soon if we get a decent route - just cracked below $1800 this arvo......$1770 and falling!

Looks like a long on the DOW tonight........

adamim1 · 16 September 2011

I'd be looking at anywhere between 1690-1720 for a an entry price into gold.

sinner · 16 September 2011

Re: Listen.

Mr Z said:
50 DMA, yes that would be widely expected to produce support from most players. Given the time of year etc I would have those levels as a buy.

FWIW.

The commercials are getting very short here and there is talk of hedging coming back. I'm not sure that carries the weight it once did, the small specs are getting quite short, tops typically come about when they are very long.

Interbank reports also indicate demand $1650ish if we fall through 1725, which is the level that was on everyones tongue a few weeks ago.

I think the Asian CBs are buying whatever dips can accomodate their size and don't really care about the support levels as a number. i.e. they haven't been buying the dip higher up because the dip at that level can't take their size - not because they are unwilling to buy there.

These aren't forex rates, after all.

Mr Z · 16 September 2011

Uncle Festivus said:
Actually I was referring to equities etc as the risk ON trade.

Well yes I got that, but the whole risk on risk off concept just groups a whole bunch of assets in either class. So when you say 'risk on' it implies many different types of positions can be taken under that strategy change. I was simply pointing out that gold seems to inhabit both camps depending on who is doing the yaking. Most other things are firmly considered one of the other, gold she has an image conflict in that area!

Mr Z · 16 September 2011

Re: Listen.

sinner said:
Interbank reports also indicate demand $1650ish if we fall through 1725, which is the level that was on everyones tongue a few weeks ago.

I think the Asian CBs are buying whatever dips can accomodate their size and don't really care about the support levels as a number. i.e. they haven't been buying the dip higher up because the dip at that level can't take their size - not because they are unwilling to buy there.

These aren't forex rates, after all.

Below 1725 I'd actually argue for 1600 as being the stronger technical level, although there is some support around 1650. After that the 200DMA which would probably be around 1550 by the time we'd hit it. I really don't expect that deep a pause at this time of year but lets wait and see what the 2 day long FOMC meeting gives us.

explod · 16 September 2011

Mr Z said:
Well yes I got that, but the whole risk on risk off concept just groups a whole bunch of assets in either class. So when you say 'risk on' it implies many different types of positions can be taken under that strategy change. I was simply pointing out that gold seems to inhabit both camps depending on who is doing the yaking. Most other things are firmly considered one of the other, gold she has an image conflict in that area!

It is just another aspect of what we discribe in an overall uptrend like this as "the climbing of the wall of worry".

And gold in particular, as the banks and financial industry detest it as it pays no interest or trailing fees and Governments/Centrral Banks because it reflects weaknesses in fiat (paper) money. So you know who the press will support.

With the recent fall in the gold price and the uncertainty I find it interesting that the favourite pm. stocks I follow, OGC, RSG and AYN are all up an average of 4% today, two on higher volume, and its a Friday. Is this anticipation based on past behaviour,

you bet.

sinner · 16 September 2011

explod said:
And gold in particular, as the banks and financial industry detest it as it pays no interest or trailing fees and Governments/Centrral Banks because it reflects weaknesses in fiat (paper) money.

Doctor explod once again giving his expert opinion to the uneducated masses as if it was fact

If CBs "detest" gold, why have they been net buyers for a solid year now? Why does the ECB happily and publicly mark its reserves to market every single quarter since inception, showing anyone who is willing to look the strength of gold against their paper?

(h/t FOFOA once again)

Below 1725 I'd actually argue for 1600 as being the stronger technical level, although there is some support around 1650. After that the 200DMA which would probably be around 1550 by the time we'd hit it. I really don't expect that deep a pause at this time of year but lets wait and see what the 2 day long FOMC meeting gives us.

Let's not get our signals crossed here, you are talking technicals I am only relaying some market chatter about orders which are said to be waiting around before executing. 1600, 1650, whats $50 fiatscos between goldbugs?

Mr Z · 16 September 2011

Yeah, well

I have to say I have heard more Gold = Risk Off in this little episode than I have heard before. The mindset is changing and the "risky asset" of gold is now being seen in changing light.

Yeah .... market chatter, hmmm, well I was just chucking my opinion of the chart out there, no mixed signals just more noise Maybe we do the 200 DMA this time because the Bernanke pulls a rabbit out of the hat, I can't say I can imagine what would pull that off at this point but lets watch this space. I wonder just how creative the Fed can get? Mebe they will just paint the choppers pink!

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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