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If you were holding against Euro's you might be OK for the moment.
Gold Price - Where is it heading?
- Thread starter guycharles
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This has been what is happening in the gold market for a while.
I short parable
Once upon a time a man told a small village, “I will buy monkeys for $10 each.”
Since there were many monkeys in the forest, the villagers caught them and sold them to the man.
As the supply of monkeys diminished, the villagers’ efforts slowed, so the man offered them $20 each.
They renewed their efforts but the supply of monkeys diminished further, so he increased his price to $25.
Soon no one could even find a monkey in the forest.
The man increased his price to $50, but announced, “Since I must go to the city on business, I authorize my assistant to buy monkeys on my behalf.”
As soon as his boss was gone, the assistant told the villagers, “My boss has collected lots of monkeys. I’ll sell them to you for $35 and then, when he returns, you can sell them to him for $50.”
The villagers rounded up all the money they could and bought as many monkeys as possible. Then they had monkeys everywhere…
… but they never saw the man or his assistant again.
I short parable
Once upon a time a man told a small village, “I will buy monkeys for $10 each.”
Since there were many monkeys in the forest, the villagers caught them and sold them to the man.
As the supply of monkeys diminished, the villagers’ efforts slowed, so the man offered them $20 each.
They renewed their efforts but the supply of monkeys diminished further, so he increased his price to $25.
Soon no one could even find a monkey in the forest.
The man increased his price to $50, but announced, “Since I must go to the city on business, I authorize my assistant to buy monkeys on my behalf.”
As soon as his boss was gone, the assistant told the villagers, “My boss has collected lots of monkeys. I’ll sell them to you for $35 and then, when he returns, you can sell them to him for $50.”
The villagers rounded up all the money they could and bought as many monkeys as possible. Then they had monkeys everywhere…
… but they never saw the man or his assistant again.
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yeah ok tyson we get the point mate. gold is in a bubble. it's not a value investment. you know better than everyone else. anyone who invests in gold is an idiot. ben graham is proud of you.
now you're beginning to harp on. you sure you didn't take a wrong turn and end up here when you meant to go to this thread?
sunshine and lollipops and ego and my opinion is better than your opinion etc. etc.
now you're beginning to harp on. you sure you didn't take a wrong turn and end up here when you meant to go to this thread?
sunshine and lollipops and ego and my opinion is better than your opinion etc. etc.
Ya got nuthin when you resort to this sort of tripe LOL
Hey mods! Where I come from this is called baiting.
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http://www.bullionvault.com/GoldWhereToNow/Part1.html
I found this presentation to be clear, and would recomend to anyone considering or invested in gold.
There is a downloadable spreadsheet attached to part 5, he presents his valuation methods, does something to address fundamentalist objections to gold as an investment
I would be interested to hear comment from others regarding his valuation methodology and assumptions, especially critque.
The 5 part presentation goes for 1 hour.
I consider this to be the shortest adequate information I could give someone as to why gold has upside option.
(the link should be to the start of part 1)
I found this presentation to be clear, and would recomend to anyone considering or invested in gold.
There is a downloadable spreadsheet attached to part 5, he presents his valuation methods, does something to address fundamentalist objections to gold as an investment
I would be interested to hear comment from others regarding his valuation methodology and assumptions, especially critque.
The 5 part presentation goes for 1 hour.
I consider this to be the shortest adequate information I could give someone as to why gold has upside option.
(the link should be to the start of part 1)
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A good effort effort there comrades - the pretend market down 2.5% and the real market up by 4%!
A nice slingshot from the exchange rate differential too. I think the possible gold price appreciation in $AU terms from a fall in the $USD/$AU rate will play an important part soon, as I believe the $AU is substantially overbought on the China story, which has also just passed peak returns from the various stimulis packages of the last 3 years, ie at stall or even contraction speed.
So, will a tanking Chinese economy bring it's citizens out as net sellers if the going gets tough, or actually buy gold even more as the renminbi will be shown up as no better than any other fiat value exchange?
Something to ponder this fine day........
A nice slingshot from the exchange rate differential too. I think the possible gold price appreciation in $AU terms from a fall in the $USD/$AU rate will play an important part soon, as I believe the $AU is substantially overbought on the China story, which has also just passed peak returns from the various stimulis packages of the last 3 years, ie at stall or even contraction speed.
So, will a tanking Chinese economy bring it's citizens out as net sellers if the going gets tough, or actually buy gold even more as the renminbi will be shown up as no better than any other fiat value exchange?
Something to ponder this fine day........
Is somebody that owns a business called 'bullionvault' really going to give you nonbiased and impartial advice about gold bullion ?
Would you buy QR National because of the slick ipo videos and the information they supplied about why QRN has upside ?
Is anyone who is not in the gold business going to give you "going to give you nonbiased and impartial advice about gold bullion" ---> The answer is no. The financial industry as a whole makes very little out of gold and therefore HATES it and hates to see money going in that direction.
It is up to you to do the work and decide if you are being told the truth or sold a line.
FWIW these guys have sung the same tune since gold was $2xx --> you could have said the same about them then. However they where right and still are, but then you will have to do the work to convince yourself of that.
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No, I thought about disclaiming that, but thought it was too obvious.
However I consider his Part 5 valuation methodology very robust fundamentally.
It is risk-based acturial and factors in bias (imo)
Well I did consider it, but unfortunately not
(its been a real good outperformer hasnt it?)As you may see, what he is saying in brutally short summary, is that gold does not perform well as an investment anytime the "economy" is working well, but shows how and under what circumstances it may increase in value
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Was trading goldies today and noticed they closed down which I interpreted as a signal that a new high on spot gold will not be forth coming in the near term. Exited on price action so am looking for confirmation this week.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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New high on gold spot now. Come on two thousand and more. (holding a goldy )
)
Kauri
E/W Learner
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Big moves ..
Apparently the gnomes have pointed thier hats at the EURO cross .
BREAKING NEWS
...... Kauri
Apparently the gnomes have pointed thier hats at the EURO cross .
BREAKING NEWS
- Swiss franc drops sharply after national bank sets new price target of SFr1.20 against the euro (from Fin Times.
...... Kauri
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explod
explod
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Nice little US$60 drop there over the last hour with a $49 recovery since.
If gold was at $200 this then would have been merely a $6 correction on the same scale.
Volatility (or the perception of it) will be the name of the game now.
Of course those who do think they are the masters of controlling things would not have liked the sharp rise in the gold price Friday whilst the markets were tanking. Have not seen the huge strength of the HUI in the face of a falling Dow before either.
Interesting times indeed.
If gold was at $200 this then would have been merely a $6 correction on the same scale.
Volatility (or the perception of it) will be the name of the game now.
Of course those who do think they are the masters of controlling things would not have liked the sharp rise in the gold price Friday whilst the markets were tanking. Have not seen the huge strength of the HUI in the face of a falling Dow before either.
Interesting times indeed.
Cheers Kauri, great how charts can give an indication of a move before the event.
On the volatility front Explod I think unfortunately for gold bugs that most of the volatility will have a downward bias, we're heading down the same path as Silver. Just looking at the weekly & monthly charts its plain to see this is all going to end in tears
On the volatility front Explod I think unfortunately for gold bugs that most of the volatility will have a downward bias, we're heading down the same path as Silver. Just looking at the weekly & monthly charts its plain to see this is all going to end in tears
Kauri
E/W Learner
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explod
explod
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Have another look.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/au0365nyb.html
http://www.jsmineset.com/2010/10/01/monthly-gold-and-silver-charts-from-trader-dan/
Just the ongoing trend. Cant' see any sign of a correction but a lot prophets have been calling for it for 10 years, still waiting.
However we shall see.
or possibly we've just completed B up with C down to come, but think I prefer yours looking at the PA again
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