Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

If CBs "detest" gold, why have they been net buyers for a solid year now? Why does the ECB happily and publicly mark its reserves to market every single quarter since inception, showing anyone who is willing to look the strength of gold against their paper?

Some, not all are buying and taking possesion of physical gold.

For us dummies, Your Worship, it would be good for you to detail and qualify.

 

[sinner]

Some, not all are buying and taking possesion of physical gold.

lol right, the physical gold bug who buys paper shares, who says paper money is weak but still logs into his broker every day to check the paper price of his paper shares.

For us dummies, Your Worship, it would be good for you to detail and qualify.

No idea what this means. I was asking you the question, perhaps it would be better if you detailed exactly why CBs who you claim hate gold are in fact net buyers and probably the last monetary entity on the planet holding gold as a reserve, because mutual funds, super funds, hedge funds, etc none of them hold gold in a vault. Only the CBs and a tiny portion of retail do this. Everyone else is buying shares in OGC

Yeah .... market chatter, hmmm, well I was just chucking my opinion of the chart out there, no mixed signals just more noise Maybe we do the 200 DMA this time because the Bernanke pulls a rabbit out of the hat, I can't say I can imagine what would pull that off at this point but lets watch this space. I wonder just how creative the Fed can get? Mebe they will just paint the choppers pink!

Nah I pretty much agreed with your original thought, the dip won't be so deep as that for this cycle. Bernanke has painted himself into an ugly corner imho.

http://www.mises.ca/posts/blog/the-fed-follows-the-swiss-national-bank/

AS LONG AS THESE FX SWAPS (USD BACKSTOP) REMAIN IN PLACE, WE WILL BE LONG GOLD. THE TOP FOR THE GOLD MARKET WILL BE REACHED THE DAY THIS BACKSTOP IS ELIMINATED EITHER VOLUNTARILY OR FORCED UPON THE FED BY THE MARKET AND NOT ONE MINUTE EARLIER…”

(emphasis direct from the article, not mine)

 

[explod]

Sinner you are fishing. Perhaps you are in the financial industry or a banker.

Nearly all I possess is in physical silver and even that is none of your business.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

How to get a reliable indicator of what happened overnight in gold? What type of quote will be most influential in moving the XGD stocks? Can someone explain all the different types of prices and quotes avaliable please?

 

[skyQuake]

How to get a reliable indicator of what happened overnight in gold? What type of quote will be most influential in moving the XGD stocks? Can someone explain all the different types of prices and quotes avaliable please?

kitco.com/market

Alternately, ^XAU and ^HUI are gold indices in the US

 

[sinner]

How to get a reliable indicator of what happened overnight in gold? What type of quote will be most influential in moving the XGD stocks? Can someone explain all the different types of prices and quotes avaliable please?

* HUI is the goldbugs index - unhedged large cap gold stocks ($HUI on stockcharts.com)
* GDM is the AMEX Gold Miners Index ($GDM on stockcharts.com)
* GDXJ is the NYSE Gold Juniors ETF
* XGD.TO is the TSX Gold Index (XGD.TO on stockcharts.com is the corresponding ETF)
* GCZ11 is the current front month COMEX gold futures ticker (GCU11 is the one for September expiring, you can see charts and options on the whole futures curve at barchart.com)
* Spot price of gold ($GOLD at stockcharts.com or ^XAUUSD at barchart.com for forex view, kitco also has a popular live spot chart which shows the price on a closing line basis, I usually check this one during the day)
* http://www.pagold.cn/ for Pan Asian Gold Exchange pricings
* ^AUDUSD is the forex rate, has an impact, as you have to consider that XGD.ASX stocks will be usually settling their dore sales in ^XAUAUD prices (^XAUAUD at barchart.com)
* CLZ11 for the current front month WTIC price (or $WTIC for rolling prices at stockcharts.com)
* SIZ11 for the current front month silver futures (or $SILVER for rolling prices at stockcharts.com)
* You can get the Implied Volatility for GC futures at the ivolatility.com IVX board on their main site, look for the row labelled GC. Barchart also shoes delayed IV for futures.
* DXY Dollar Index ($USD at stockcharts.com for rolling)
* TED spread, ($TED at stockcharts.com or .TEDSP.IND on bloomberg ticker), you can also build this and the BEB spread (Bund/Euribor) spread at barchart.

All play their part, at least if you ask me.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Thank you both.

Very comprehensive sinner! Good one.

 

[sinner]

Thank you both.

Very comprehensive sinner! Good one.

Oops there is one more thing which affects the price of gold which you can also get form kitco,

Gold and Silver Lease Rates
http://www.kitco.com/market/lfrate.html




This is like the bond curve, but for gold leases. If you have done any reading of the likes of Antal Fekete, "Last Contango in Washington" and similar articles, the importance will be known.

 

[adamim1]

Thought these were interesting. You will have to scroll in zoom to view.

 

[drillinto]

Gold Breaking Down ?

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/9/22/gold-breaking-down.html

*******************************

 

[Uncle Festivus]

At least 1 part of the strategy has/is materialising - short the $AU/$US! Just have to be patient for those who need to sell gold to fund margin calls etc to be finished then look to buying gold, again. The global financial jalopy has gone from having to need all 4 tyres balanced to all 4 starting to come off completely? This is it.......? Some re-arranging is in order as the bank guarantee now only $250,000!

 

[iced earth]

GOLD-23 SEPT 2011
================================

Gold in daily charts touched the top line of the channel and now the lower line of the channel would be consider a valid support level



in monthly charts, also we see gold touched the top line of the channel and if the mentioned daily charts (lower line) could not hold the gold , the red line and EMA 20 could be the next support level

 

[Uncle Festivus]

They are still in control, but for how much longer???

This is market manipulation at it's finest as the 'owners' of the rules of the 'public' exchange where these items are traded have, (with no doubt some 'encouragement' from them, for want of a better non-libelous word) for some reason all of a sudden decided to 'take it down'?

So the answer for QE inspired price rises in core commodities is to margin out all but the most liquid & deep pocketed players?

Timed to perfection too as the flight to the 'less worse than the Euro' USD is in full flight...

Poor old silver - confidence is shot......never convinced of it's fundamentals.....compared to gold....

At this rate I can buy some (more) bargains this week - I'm interested around the $1500 mark??



SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The CME Group, the parent company of the New York Mercantile Exchange, on Friday raised margin requirements for some gold, silver and copper futures contracts.

Initial requirements for gold's benchmark contract rose 21% to $11,475 per contract, from $9,450 and maintenance margins climbed to $8,500 from $7,000 per contract.

Initial requirements for silver's benchmark contract rose 16% to $24,975 per contract, from $21,600 and maintenance margins climbed to $18,500 from $16,000 per contract.

Initial requirements for copper's benchmark contract rose 18% to $6,750 per contract, from $5,738 and maintenance margins climbed to $5,000 from $4,250 per contract.

Metals sold off Friday, with gold losing more than $100 an ounce.

 

[aclassic]

Isn't this the correction Mr Z wrote about a few weeks ago?

Who else is game enough for predictions?

A whole weekend to contemplate the navel !

cheers.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Isn't this the correction Mr Z wrote about a few weeks ago?

Who else is game enough for predictions?

A whole weekend to contemplate the navel !

cheers.

Maybe,

Or it could be the first rumblings of the crash I wrote about a few weeks ago.

No, Seriously. I Don't delude myself to the point I believe I know the timings of "when" things will Happen. But I do know the "What" will happen.

And if you know the "What" the "when" is less important.

And "what" will happen is a big Correction in the gold price, "When" I don't know, I will leave that to you guys to find out. ( my feelings are within 12months, But as I said thats just a feeling not based on any facts )

 

[joea]

Isn't this the correction Mr Z wrote about a few weeks ago?

Who else is game enough for predictions?

A whole weekend to contemplate the navel !

cheers.

This is my softwares version of relationship of Gold to US Dollar.

 

[Billyb]

Maybe,

Or it could be the first rumblings of the crash I wrote about a few weeks ago.

No, Seriously. I Don't delude myself to the point I believe I know the timings of "when" things will Happen. But I do know the "What" will happen.

And if you know the "What" the "when" is less important.

And "what" will happen is a big Correction in the gold price, "When" I don't know, I will leave that to you guys to find out. ( my feelings are within 12months, But as I said thats just a feeling not based on any facts )

Tyson there will always be retracements in all great uptrends it's the nature of how markets work, there have been plenty of corrections in gold for the past 10 years of it's bull run. The current correction has just re-entered its old trend channel (which has been astoundingly consistent for three years). My guess is that there will be a solid period of consolidation for several months before a strong trend resumes again, like what happened after the May '06 correction. No evidence of a crash yet IMO, just a healthy, overdue correction.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Tyson there will always be retracements in all great uptrends it's the nature of how markets work, there have been plenty of corrections in gold for the past 10 years of it's bull run. The current correction has just re-entered its old trend channel (which has been astoundingly consistent for three years). My guess is that there will be a solid period of consolidation for several months before a strong trend resumes again, like what happened after the May '06 correction. No evidence of a crash yet IMO, just a healthy, overdue correction.

Every bull market ends badly, and every "great bull market", ends in a devastating crash. Especially when the participants believe "this is different".

If you don't understand that, you are a fool,

 

[Mr Z]

Bull markets end when they over reach their fundamental drivers. If you can't see that the fundamental drivers of a gold bull market are still in place then you are also a fool.

Given the time of year, what is going on around the world, the strength that we have seen across golds seasonally weak period etc... I would be surprised if this correction did take months to play out. On my chart gold is at a logical support point around here with a short term channel structure still intact although looking threatened. Below 1600 should offer some solid support then if that fails the 200 DMA is more looking like the worst you could expect.

Looking at various indicators today my guess is that we find a floor in the next week or so and that the odds are this will be a shorter and sharper experience than the bears expect.

 

[wayneL]

What are the fundamental drivers?

Are there speculative drivers?