explod
explod
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Dow down HUI up. Gold and silver holding in a good consolidation range.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Gold Price - Where is it heading?
- Thread starter guycharles
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Golds alternatives, fiat currencies, continue to self destruct, this time the once mighty Swiss Franc has succumbed to pressure with the SNB signing it's death warrant in their effort at competitive currency devaluation?
Things are getting mighty wobbly in fiat land.
Meanwhile, other practical alternatives to the USD. The far more valuable alternative to USD's that 45 million Americans rely on to exist, food stamps, look like being accepted at fast food outlets now.
20% of Americans now live below the poverty line!
And then there was one store of wealth left standing............
Things are getting mighty wobbly in fiat land.
Meanwhile, other practical alternatives to the USD. The far more valuable alternative to USD's that 45 million Americans rely on to exist, food stamps, look like being accepted at fast food outlets now.
20% of Americans now live below the poverty line!
And then there was one store of wealth left standing............
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appears it was a B then Kauri, shorts squeezing higher. Loads of divergence on the daily too, not a great look for gold at this point, will need some 'real' buyers to step up
I guess even gold bugs were getting a bit nervous at the latest surge ie $300 in 30 days, but I will be a 'real' buyer when the price is right ie several hundred lower? Hopefully we get a decent pullback, and a surge in the $AU/$USD to set things up nicely - short the hell out of the dollar and go long gold.......
The markets can only go so much higher on austerity plans (for Greece, Italy Belgium etc etc) written on paper, but putting the plans into practice is another story, almost impossibly so....just like the rumours of QE3 - if it hasn't worked twice before why will it work this time?
If debt caused the problem then how is more debt going to fix it??
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/209986/20110907/finally-a-gold-buying-opportunity.htm
yes have a right to be nervous as its not buying for fundamental reasons
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1315318111.php
Gold's rise from $1,600 - the dramatic gold rally was caused by aggressive buying by the group of speculative traders which are classified as commercials by the CFTC. Many make the mistake of assuming that just because these traders are classified as commercials that means their trading is purely for legitimate hedging purposes. Nothing could be further from the truth, as the bulk of their trading is speculative in nature. Therefore, while it would be technically correct to say that the gold rally has been caused by speculative buying, most would assume that meant new buying of long positions by easily-identified speculators such as hedge funds and momentum traders. That is definitely not what has transpired in gold recently, as the “normal” hedge fund and technical fund speculators have been selling COMEX gold contracts, not buying them. Instead, the big COMEX gold speculative buyers have been the commercials who were previously heavily short. Correctly identifying the true speculators driving a market is a distinction that makes all the difference in the world.
explod
explod
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Yes the hedge funds play in paper contracts which have in fact a very diluted value against the physical metal itself.
The actual rise in gold is a result of people losing confidence in the value of paper money.
Gold output is not increasing but the demand for physical bars is. Wonder hey.
As the paper ponzes continueto increase to overcome the increasing amounts to service the increasing debts so real gold will continue to rise against paper money and will therefore hold its real value
The little bit of flutter in the price now is no different in percentage terms as has been the case since 2002.
Thought id chime in since most info on here is based on comex markets and not physical....
On the physical front demand is the most it has been since i can remember.....
Personally i think even with a crash i still think $1500 AU is the baseline, the 1 good thing is thow is that with all this scrap being refined into bars i used to question (who are buying these up?) but with more public/institutional and central banks buying it should cover the excess in supply....
The only thing i fear is when you have the whole world saying "buy gold" when i hear that i sorta brace myself for rough things to come.
Interesting times indeed
On the physical front demand is the most it has been since i can remember.....
Personally i think even with a crash i still think $1500 AU is the baseline, the 1 good thing is thow is that with all this scrap being refined into bars i used to question (who are buying these up?) but with more public/institutional and central banks buying it should cover the excess in supply....
The only thing i fear is when you have the whole world saying "buy gold" when i hear that i sorta brace myself for rough things to come.
Interesting times indeed
I guess Ted'll stick with his silver service
Enjoying this volatility - you trading around your core positions Mr Z?
Guess you'll be hoping Italy doesn't get forced into tapping its large gold holding...
Italy can't sell enough gold to make a difference... there are ready buyers for big blocks that can be obtained without driving price. China is very keen to upgrade its very low gold reserves, they can and will adsorb all of Italy's gold IF it where offered. India would be in line right behind them (possibly in front!)
No sweat there at all...
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Italy can't sell enough gold to make a difference... there are ready buyers for big blocks that can be obtained without driving price. China is very keen to upgrade its very low gold reserves, they can and will adsorb all of Italy's gold IF it where offered. India would be in line right behind them (possibly in front!)
No sweat there at all...
I am hearing quite a bit about China wanting to increase Gold reserves, however also hearing the odd supression theory as well. What do you think, Z?
explod
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Good article on the gold bubble this morning from David Chapman of Goldseek. Talks about the paper trade (derivatives) of gold too.
http://news.goldseek.com/UnionSecurities/1315506903.php
http://news.goldseek.com/UnionSecurities/1315506903.php
Italy can't sell enough gold to make a difference... there are ready buyers for big blocks that can be obtained without driving price. China is very keen to upgrade its very low gold reserves, they can and will adsorb all of Italy's gold IF it where offered. India would be in line right behind them (possibly in front!)
No sweat there at all...
But what happens if Italy sells some of that gold, to lessen its sovereign debt ? Would that not cause a fundamental shift in the capacity of gold to increase in value ? Italy holds 2451.8 tonnes of gold .... at $us1750 thats 56 million a tonne. If they sold only 100 tonnes to china, it could net them in the vicinity of 5 600 000 000. Which could make a not inconsiderable dent to the sovereign debt.
People that believe in US$5000 are betting on the collapse of the fiat monetary system. I think its a pretty bold bet, considering the desperation that people up top could use to ensure the survival of the euro or US dollar.
If China where to lift its gold reserves to "typical" the POG would go through the roof, we simply have not got the new supply to give them what they want/need at anywhere near todays price. As it is they are buying 100% of Chinese gold production which is why they are one of the largest gold importers despite being a top gold producer. The fact is that they would want to take advantage of any large, single price, parcel of gold available. Central banks understand what they are doing to paper currencies, they as a group have turned buyers, IMO it is actually the last thing Italy will do to solve their problem.... they know the value of the gold that they hold and will offer any and all paper solutions ahead of releasing it.
However.... any sale of gold between countries will be spun negative for gold and short sold. That is the game, it will be spun simply as a BIG gold sale in order to scare the masses and it will be combined with aggressive short selling. It will have a temporary negative effect until the fundamental reality that it is simply a back room transfer of assets between governments comes to bear.
This is the way is has always been with government gold sales, it either never sees the wider market or it has actually already effectively been sold via a leasing program and the 'sale' is just finalizing obligations between the parties involved. I believe Sprott actually wanted to get involved in one of the last 'gold sales' but was stone walled, any surprises there? No not really
The Italian gold is never likely to leave official hands, it will stay on the government side of the fence. In fact, despite China's undoubted willingness to buy any large lot they are unlikely to let it go to them, the last big lot went to India. It is a red herring for the uninitiated to chatter about.
With all due respect Edwood any "merket" that is seeing compounding growth will produce a chart that looks like that at any point you choose to chart it. That is the nature of the beast. Gold has been compounding at 20% PA in USD terms since the beginning of this bull market and god knows how many times since then charts like that have been used to point at the "bubble" that is due to explode.
Despite what you think the fundamentals actually support the idea that gold will achieve a MUCH higher price. No doubt it will correct along the way and that at some point we may see as much as a 50% correction, however betting on that correction appearing at this time of year is not trading with the wind at your back. Typically we get stronger from here until the New Year... it could be a very interesting ride this year
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It will also be timed for the most damage as per below....
They don't even try to hide it these days......from Zero Hedge.....
No I don't think you can assume that, we are entering into a financial repression which is the game that I think most all governments will have to play in order to reduce the real debt levels in the system with the least immediate impact. If they play this game in a paced and measured way, although they will cause all sorts of stresses, I think that they can get through it. The end game will likely see the issuance of new FIAT currencies and the entrenching of the Euro i.e. a deeper integration of the Euro zone in terms of its operation, even if they do lose some countries along the way.
The 70's gold bull produced a spike that would equate to the $5700 area today and that didn't break anything. I think we will see five figures depending on how well managed this situation is and how nicely China and the US play together.
No doubt it is all up for grabs but I'd not be making any assumptions that X gold price means Y has happened.
One thing is for sure... it is going to be interesting viewing
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