Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[aclassic]

Care to explain what you are trying to get across there aclassic ?

Good morning explod. This thread has gone very quiet. mmm. No commentary on events influencing pog that's all. Calm before storm?
rgds.

 

[explod]

Good morning explod. This thread has gone very quiet. mmm. No commentary on events influencing pog that's all. Calm before storm?
rgds.

As far as gold is concerned we are in a consolidating sideways pattern and early in the week is usually uneventfull as many await the next blast from Wall Street so to speak.

Am watching the US dollar weakness and it shows signs of falling through some support at about 73.5 which will be bullish for the metal if this plays out later in the week.

Interesting that Wall Street rallied as the storm Irene proved to be less than forcast. Great fundamentals indeed.

 

[Mr Z]

Onshore oil is usually $8 a barrel it is selling for about $90. Even tar sand oil which is one of the most expensive ways to come by oil is about $40 a barrel which is slightly better than your ratio on silver.

Bhp's iron ore is operating on a 75% profit margin, meaning the cost of production is only 25% of the sale price, and that is a commodity well off it's highs.

Infact most of bhp's commodities a working on far better ratios than the one you mentioned,

The majority of silver is bought up as a byproduct, Silver Wheaton is sourcing much of its silver in the $3 range on long term contracts with byproduct producers!!!! The multiple on the majority of silver product well exceeds most anything else. Primary silver mines are another thing altogether but they are in the minority. So what numbers do you want to use? Saying that about silver is every bit as valid as quoting onshore lifting costs for oil, which by no means accounts for anywhere near the total cost of a barrel of oil! We can all cherry pick numbers!!!!

What a pointless discussion, really you are just look for stuff to strike against PM's.

Face it, they are ten years into a bull market and have another ten or so to go... easily. No gambling, the fundamentals underpinning the worlds monetary system guarantee it and that is simply because gold is the best internationally recognized form of money that is no one else's debt.

 

[Mr Z]

Interesting that Wall Street rallied as the storm Irene proved to be less than forcast. Great fundamentals indeed.

Much of the DOW is not in bad shape and makes good money overseas, in comparison to the US government some of their fundamentals are excellent... all bar the fact they can't print money. I'd not be writing off "Wall Street in one fell swoop.... it is not that simple, there are many strong companies with good balance sheets and cash on hand.

 

[davede]

Have been long gold for a while but sold out on the 22nd Aug (lucky break).

Looking for the right time to get back in.

Not so good with the technicals though (more of a macro style man).

Anyone able to post a bit of a technical analysis? Maybe a few charts? And what may signal a good entry point?

 

[Tysonboss1]

The majority of silver is bought up as a byproduct, Silver Wheaton is sourcing much of its silver in the $3 range on long term contracts with byproduct producers!!!! The multiple on the majority of silver product well exceeds most anything else. Primary silver mines are another thing altogether but they are in the minority. So what numbers do you want to use? Saying that about silver is every bit as valid as quoting onshore lifting costs for oil, which by no means accounts for anywhere near easily. No gambling, the fundamentals underpinning the worlds monetary system guarantee it and that is simply because gold is the best internationally recognized form of money that is no one else's debt.

If I was trying to cherry pick numbers I would have used $1 a barrel for Saudi oil.

Either way, it was explod who brought up production costs of silver, I was just commenting that the figures he provided were not fantastic.

Time will tell if you are right about golds bull run, i suspect you are wrong but that's just my opinion,

 

[explod]

If I was trying to cherry pick numbers I would have used $1 a barrel for Saudi oil.

Either way, it was explod who brought up production costs of silver, I was just commenting that the figures he provided were not fantastic.

Time will tell if you are right about golds bull run, i suspect you are wrong but that's just my opinion,

Unfortunately you seem to lead with your jaw.

Lets first talk of the term "my opinion". Some of us even say on ASF "in my humble opinion". IMHO

It is spelt out clearly because most of us are not financial advisers (it is an offence to give financial advice if not qualified) but I can assure you we also are sensitive to the fact that there are newcomers to ASF every day and do not want to make statments that will lead people astray. So even at opinion level we make sure that our statements are as true as they can be and are backed up by facts ie, fundamentals that can be understood and also many with good charts with trend lines etc including intelligent observations in support of any asertions made. We also tread lightly with newcomers to give them a go to speak up, but you take the cake.

No one knows where gold will end up really. All we can go by is its strong trend and the fact that the fundamental reasons for this strong trend have been well identified and are restated many times over. It is often pointed out that if you want to learn about gold it is well worth reading this thread from the begining, a big task now but a better book would be hard to find.

On your asserted experience. From what I have found there are some very intelligent and time worn investers, ex bankers and retired from the finance industry etc. I gave you a rant on myself the other day but in addition to that realise that my own instincts we fed 60 years ago when my Dad, had a farm in Western Victoria, dragged me around just about every sale yard from Warnambool to Wagga. He would buy and sell with the seasons and did well but as well as enjoying a rasberry beside him at some of the hotels I learnt a great deal from the beginning. One of my Brothers went on to become a stock agent and auctioneer. My Uncle was a real estate agent for over forty years on the Gold Coast and made millions. So I learnt a bit from them. It did not stop me from nearly going broke a few years back which again was a blessing in retrospect as I take great care in what I do and say for all concerned. Sure we have a bit of a yabba yabba on the chat threads but that is just a bit of stirring and fun for the dull hours sometimes.

So we did not come down in the last shower but we do not assert ourselves to your extent in such an unproffessional manner.

On silver, its worth you having a look at the silver thread properly and bring yourself right up to speed on this. I had a bit to say on this thread awhile back which you pick on but have another look at what is being said objectively.

On gold, up $40 overnight, as I thought would happen in a statement here last week. It was not a prediction but an observation based on the past behaviour of the markets over the last 10 years and the noise last week that was coming out of Wall Street. And I stated those things.

Have a good day.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Your full of yourself explod, you act like your opinions are conservative rational opinions but they are not, it is your opinion and wild projections that you put out there as fact that is dangerous and set to mislead the new comers.

I would think that this thread needs a balance counter weight against all the pie in they sky bullish comments written by you and the other gold bugs.

By the way, I have not made any comment here about silver, I am not sure why people keep bringing up silver in regards to my comments on gold. The only time I compared anything to silver was when I said the profit margin on the exampl you gave was not great.

 

[explod]

Your full of yourself explod, you act like your opinions are conservative rational opinions but they are not, it is your opinion and wild projections that you put out there as fact that is dangerous and set to mislead the new comers.

Okay.

You have still not qualified your reasons, fundamentally and/or technically as to why you do not think gold going forward is a good invbestment.

Would you point out some of my wild prejections?

 

[Tysonboss1]

Would you point out some of my wild prejections?

It is not hard to work out as the price of gold has gone up an average of 30% per year since 2001. And as the monetisation of debt looks to continue so will the price of gold go up on its current trend.

We have had a fair bit of it this year so I am calling US$2,200 2011

2012 about $2,900
2013 " " 3,900

roughly of course, but as the general investment community is now taking a little bit of notice it my go up exponentially further.

And we are nowhere near the mania of the dot. com for example, when the taxi driver insists on buying, only then will it hit the top and be time to sell.

They very fact that you seem to believe that this pretty metal that produces nothing, an is already 6 times higher in price than it was 10 years ago will continue to increase in value by 30%pa is crazy to me.

As I said earlier, All Bull markets end Badly. Gold will be no different. I am not making any predictions as to timings, But eventually this commodity which has been pushed up in value because of fear will be sold down, and money will flow back to those assets that actually produce, and when that happens it will be hard and fast.

Now, call me crazy, But I believe it is better to "Buy low, sell high" rather than the reverse. And many asset classes are on sale at the moment which will produce returns for many years into the future, dealing in current terms no matter what happens to the currency in the mean time.

 

[explod]

They very fact that you seem to believe that this pretty metal that produces nothing, an is already 6 times higher in price than it was 10 years ago will continue to increase in value by 30%pa is crazy to me.

As I said earlier, All Bull markets end Badly. Gold will be no different. I am not making any predictions as to timings, But eventually this commodity which has been pushed up in value because of fear will be sold down, and money will flow back to those assets that actually produce, and when that happens it will be hard and fast.

Now, call me crazy, But I believe it is better to "Buy low, sell high" rather than the reverse. And many asset classes are on sale at the moment which will produce returns for many years into the future, dealing in current terms no matter what happens to the currency in the mean time.

Interesting. Hardly any rank and file invetors out there yet know that gold exists and you are trying to call it at the peak and risky. It has remained above the 200 day trailing average since the end of 09 and you say it is risky. Paper money is losing its value by the day and gold which has been money for 5,000 years is risky.

Comorn champ, give me some good reasons.

Sell high for sure but inflation adjusted since the average of gold in 1980, $500 inflation adjusted, is conservatively around $3,500 an ounce and some pundits who I do not take much notice of call it much higher.

Sure there is food and other essentials and we keep note of those things but there are no real strong trends at the moment. Rare earths is one and so is energy but the trends are nothing like that of gold nor at the moment are the fundamentals.

Some real reasons and facts?

 

[Tysonboss1]

1, Interesting. Hardly any rank and file invetors out there yet know that gold exists and you are trying to call it at the peak and risky.

2, It has remained above the 200 day trailing average since the end of 09 and you say it is risky.

3, Paper money is losing its value by the day and

4, gold which has been money for 5,000 years is risky.

5, Sell high for sure but inflation adjusted since the average of gold in 1980, $500 inflation adjusted, is conservatively around $3,500 an ounce.

6, Sure there is food and other essentials and we keep note of those things but there are no real strong trends at the moment. Rare earths is one and so is energy but the trends are nothing like that of gold nor at the moment are the fundamentals.

1, Gee you don't give the investing public much credit, I think you are wrong, everybody knows about gold, everybody.

2, Yes, I do say it's risky.

3, Who cares, Have I ever said that it doesn't, after factoring in interest though it is not losing value.

4, yes, no matter how good the asset nothing is worth an infinate price, and buying at historical highpoints leads to disaster, especially when their is no income to save you.

5, thats my point, in 1980 gold was in a bubble and then crashed and took nearly 3 decades to get back to that level. you could of bought gold cheaper in 2000 than you could in 1979, and that was after earning interest on those paper dollars for 20 years.

6, and that doesn't ring alarm bells for you,

 

[explod]

1, Gee you don't give the investing public much credit, I think you are wrong, everybody knows about gold, everybody.

2, Yes, I do say it's risky.

3, Who cares, Have I ever said that it doesn't, after factoring in interest though it is not losing value.

4, yes, no matter how good the asset nothing is worth an infinate price, and buying at historical highpoints leads to disaster, especially when their is no income to save you.

5, thats my point, in 1980 gold was in a bubble and then crashed and took nearly 3 decades to get back to that level. you could of bought gold cheaper in 2000 than you could in 1979, and that was after earning interest on those paper dollars for 20 years.

6, and that doesn't ring alarm bells for you,

As was said in the film Cool Hand Luke "some people ya just cannt reach"

Let us watch wait and see.

nb. and the past is not a guide to the future. Only the trend is of value whilst it lasts because no one knows the future we can only factor in all the factors.

Still no supportive facts champ

 

[Tysonboss1]

Please explod,

Can you explain with this chart to me with all you wisdom. And maybe give some indication as to what a bubble would look like, because this chart looks like every other bubble chart i have seen. note the gold price has gone even higher since this chart, which would make the chart look even more bubbly.




It actually looks similar to this one from the all ords, you can see they both had previous bull markets that have ended badly.



But it's ok, I am sure it's different this time.

 

[explod]

In 1980 the line went straight up. No bubble yet.

 

[Billyb]

1. Can you explain with this chart to me with all you wisdom. And maybe give some indication as to what a bubble would look like, because this chart looks like every other bubble chart i have seen. note the gold price has gone even higher since this chart, which would make the chart look even more bubbly.





2. It actually looks similar to this one from the all ords, you can see they both had previous bull markets that have ended badly.



But it's ok, I am sure it's different this time.

1. What goes up must come down. Of course it's gonna come down (eventually) If you're going to avoid entering these things because it's eventually going to come back down - well you're potentially missing out on profit in my humble opinion.

2. You are posting up an example of one of the worst financial depressions in history (the GFC) - this is a poor example.

Finally, gold is not parabolic yet. It's had a nice healthy advance.

 

[RandR]

2. You are posting up an example of one of the worst financial depressions in history (the GFC) - this is a poor example.

Youve got to be kidding ? the GFC is and hasnt yet been what I would call a 'depression' in Aus. Let alone in history.

, Interesting. Hardly any rank and file invetors out there yet know that gold exists and you are trying to call it at the peak and risky.

Lol, how many rank and file investors do you talk to ? Considering how long the likes of robert kiyosaki have been pumping gold for id say the rank and file are more then aware if not already on board.

 

[Tysonboss1]

1. What goes up must come down. Of course it's gonna come down (eventually) If you're going to avoid entering these things because it's eventually going to come back down - well you're potentially missing out on profit in my humble opinion.

2. You are posting up an example of one of the worst financial depressions in history (the GFC) - this is a poor example.

Finally, gold is not parabolic yet.

3, It's had a nice healthy advance.

1, "Eventually" look at the gold chart from it's first peak, that was a very steep decline, and that was without the modern mouse click dump we can see today. In my humble opinion Buying somthing just because it has gone up is as dumb as selling something just because it has gone down.

2, "Depression", It wasn't even the worst recession we have had,

3, I wouldn't call it healthy,

 

[Billyb]

Youve got to be kidding ? the GFC is and hasnt yet been what I would call a 'depression' in Aus. Let alone in history.

I was referring to the period of time rather than the location. Crisis would have been a better word than depression, but it really doesn't change the point. Some people just like to pick a bone for the sake of picking a bone, don't they.

 

[Tysonboss1]

In 1980 the line went straight up. No bubble yet.

:iamwithst Ha, nice try.