Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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Trembling Hand said:
Thats pattern as I have said many time before is a standard pattern in all markets during bull runs. Big moves during out of hours trading, then back filling during high volume sessions. It happens in equities and other commods as well. Of course if a normal pattern happens in PMs and its down its a conspiracy. :cool:
Click to expand...

I stated, "...in off market periods" where is the conspiracy?

This is just how the gold and silver prices have behaved for years now, but in the last six months the dips are quickly filled during what are regarded as normal trading time on its 24 hour circuit.

Of course the past is no predictor, we just have a good trend.

Where's the problem ?
 
explod said:
I stated, "...in off market periods" where is the conspiracy?
Click to expand...
Actually you stated,

explod said:
Gold will dip, as it did today, violently in off market periods
Click to expand...

Clearly I do not understand the English language. As your sentence made reference to dip, "off" market periods and then used the inclusive "as it did today". Where clearly the falls where during the High vol Comex hours.
 
Trembling Hand said:
Actually you stated,



Clearly I do not understand the English language. As your sentence made reference to dip, "off" market periods and then used the inclusive "as it did today". Where clearly the falls where during the High vol Comex hours.
Click to expand...

Well would you look at that. It went up but it went down again. Unbelievable! :p::D
 

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nukz said:
What i'm interested in is the last time the US had hyper-inflation, what effect did that have on Australia?
Click to expand...

That's not an easy question to answer. I'm not a historian.
But the economics of Australia around that time were centered around the
Robertson Land Acts in an attempt to break up the domination of land holdings by free settlers "squatters". In the prior decade there was the gold rush of course. And then there was the collapse of commodity prices and the crash of the Federal Bank in the 1890's.

What effect it did have in the last real hyper-inflationary event in America was a huge jump in the Lerner Commodity Price Index.


During the Revolutionary War, the Continental Congress authorized the printing of paper currency called continental currency. These easily counterfeited notes depreciated rapidly, giving rise to the expression "not worth a continental."

Between January 1861 and April 1865, the Lerner Commodity Price Index of leading cities in the eastern Confederacy states increased from 100 to over 9000. As the U.S. Civil War dragged on the Confederate States of America dollar had less and less value, until it was almost worthless by the last few months of the war.

http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/weidenmier.finance.confederacy.us

To dismiss this as some US-centric problem that won't effect Australian prices is a bit pre-mature I believe. Because back then not all commodity prices were denominationally fixed and universally traded in US dollars.

Considering all of these commodities are now valued and traded in US Dollars

Corn CBOT 5000 bu C/ZC (Electronic)
Corn EURONEXT 50 tons EMA
Oats CBOT 5000 bu O/ZO (Electronic)
Rough Rice CBOT 2000 cwt RR
Soybeans CBOT 5000 bu S
Rapeseed EURONEXT 50 tons ECO
Soybean Meal CBOT 100 short tons SM/ZM (Electronic)
Soybean Oil CBOT 60,000 lb BO/ZO (Electronic)
Wheat CBOT 5000 bu W/ZW (Electronic)
Cocoa NYBOT 10 tons CC
Coffee C NYBOT 37,500 lb KC
Cotton No.2 NYBOT 50,000 lb CT
Sugar No.11 NYBOT 112,000 lb SB
Sugar No.14 NYBOT 112,000 lb SE

Livestock and meat
Commodity Contract Size Currency Main Exchange Trading Symbol
Lean Hogs 40,000 lb (20 tons) USD ($) Chicago Mercantile Exchange LH
Frozen Pork Bellies 40,000 lb (20 tons) USD ($) Chicago Mercantile Exchange PB
Live Cattle 40,000 lb (20 tons) USD ($) Chicago Mercantile Exchange LC
Feeder Cattle 50,000 lb (25 tons) USD ($) Chicago Mercantile Exchange FC

Commodity Main Exchange Contract Size Trading Symbol
WTI Crude Oil NYMEX, ICE 1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) CL (NYMEX), WTI (ICE)
Brent Crude ICE 1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) B
Ethanol CBOT 29,000 U.S. gal AC (Open Auction) ZE (Electronic)
Natural Gas NYMEX 10,000 mmBTU NG
Heating Oil NYMEX 1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) HO
Gulf Coast Gasoline NYMEX 1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) LR
RBOB Gasoline (reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygen blending) NYMEX 1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) RB
Propane NYMEX 1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) PN

Precious metals
Commodity Unit Currency Main Exchange
Gold troy ounce USD ($) NYMEX
Platinum troy ounce USD ($) NYMEX
Palladium troy ounce USD ($) NYMEX
Silver troy ounce USD ($) NYMEX

Industrial metals
Commodity Unit Currency Main Exchange
Copper Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange, New York
Lead Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Zinc Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Tin Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Aluminium Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange, New York
Aluminium alloy Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Nickel Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Cobalt Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Molybdenum Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Recycled steel Metric Ton USD ($) Rotterdam (source?)
*************************************************

Anyway. If any astute investors, traders or history buffs out there want to enlighten me further or point out any errors in my amateur reasoning then please do so.

I'm only here to learn after all.

Cheers
gumby.
 
GumbyLearner said:
To dismiss this as some US-centric problem that won't effect Australian prices is a bit pre-mature I believe. Because back then not all commodity prices were denominationally fixed and universally traded in US dollars.

Considering all of these commodities are now valued and traded in US Dollars
Click to expand...

Gumby I'm not sure what your point is? Commodities are priced in US dollars. US dollars go down our AU dollar goes up offsetting the increase, give or take a bit, in the US priced commodities.

mogas_chart.gif


Cannot find a long term one for Oz but its been around $1:25 for what? 2 years?
 
GumbyLearner said:
That's not an easy question to answer. I'm not a historian.
But the economics of Australia around that time were centered around the
Robertson Land Acts in an attempt to break up the domination of land holdings by free settlers "squatters". In the prior decade there was the gold rush of course. And then there was the collapse of commodity prices and the crash of the Federal Bank in the 1890's.

What effect it did have in the last real hyper-inflationary event in America was a huge jump in the Lerner Commodity Price Index.


During the Revolutionary War, the Continental Congress authorized the printing of paper currency called continental currency. These easily counterfeited notes depreciated rapidly, giving rise to the expression "not worth a continental."

Between January 1861 and April 1865, the Lerner Commodity Price Index of leading cities in the eastern Confederacy states increased from 100 to over 9000. As the U.S. Civil War dragged on the Confederate States of America dollar had less and less value, until it was almost worthless by the last few months of the war.

http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/weidenmier.finance.confederacy.us

To dismiss this as some US-centric problem that won't effect Australian prices is a bit pre-mature I believe. Because back then not all commodity prices were denominationally fixed and universally traded in US dollars.

Considering all of these commodities are now valued and traded in US Dollars

Corn CBOT 5000 bu C/ZC (Electronic)
Corn EURONEXT 50 tons EMA
Oats CBOT 5000 bu O/ZO (Electronic)
Rough Rice CBOT 2000 cwt RR
Soybeans CBOT 5000 bu S
Rapeseed EURONEXT 50 tons ECO
Soybean Meal CBOT 100 short tons SM/ZM (Electronic)
Soybean Oil CBOT 60,000 lb BO/ZO (Electronic)
Wheat CBOT 5000 bu W/ZW (Electronic)
Cocoa NYBOT 10 tons CC
Coffee C NYBOT 37,500 lb KC
Cotton No.2 NYBOT 50,000 lb CT
Sugar No.11 NYBOT 112,000 lb SB
Sugar No.14 NYBOT 112,000 lb SE

Livestock and meat
Commodity Contract Size Currency Main Exchange Trading Symbol
Lean Hogs 40,000 lb (20 tons) USD ($) Chicago Mercantile Exchange LH
Frozen Pork Bellies 40,000 lb (20 tons) USD ($) Chicago Mercantile Exchange PB
Live Cattle 40,000 lb (20 tons) USD ($) Chicago Mercantile Exchange LC
Feeder Cattle 50,000 lb (25 tons) USD ($) Chicago Mercantile Exchange FC

Commodity Main Exchange Contract Size Trading Symbol
WTI Crude Oil NYMEX, ICE 1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) CL (NYMEX), WTI (ICE)
Brent Crude ICE 1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) B
Ethanol CBOT 29,000 U.S. gal AC (Open Auction) ZE (Electronic)
Natural Gas NYMEX 10,000 mmBTU NG
Heating Oil NYMEX 1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) HO
Gulf Coast Gasoline NYMEX 1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) LR
RBOB Gasoline (reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygen blending) NYMEX 1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) RB
Propane NYMEX 1000 bbl (42,000 U.S. gal) PN

Precious metals
Commodity Unit Currency Main Exchange
Gold troy ounce USD ($) NYMEX
Platinum troy ounce USD ($) NYMEX
Palladium troy ounce USD ($) NYMEX
Silver troy ounce USD ($) NYMEX

Industrial metals
Commodity Unit Currency Main Exchange
Copper Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange, New York
Lead Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Zinc Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Tin Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Aluminium Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange, New York
Aluminium alloy Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Nickel Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Cobalt Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Molybdenum Metric Ton USD ($) London Metal Exchange
Recycled steel Metric Ton USD ($) Rotterdam (source?)
*************************************************

Anyway. If any astute investors, traders or history buffs out there want to enlighten me further or point out any errors in my amateur reasoning then please do so.

I'm only here to learn after all.

Cheers
gumby.
Click to expand...

Furthermore, to my above post you would also need to consider to what degree supply and demand was affected by military conflict, drought, crop failure, industrial disruption, rationing etc.. affected prices at that time. And what part of the effect of that was apportioned to currency devaluation and trade that was strictly domiciled to the agricultural south of the US.

I'm not aware of any hyperinflationary event in Australia.

It seems difficult to correlate the effect of this period of American History 1861 - 1865 to same time frame in Australia. Yet there was definitely far less trade between the US and Australia back then. Tariffs were all the rage back then.
 
Trembling Hand said:
Gumby I'm not sure what your point is?
Click to expand...

I'm not trying to make a point TH. I was referring to the hypothetical posted by nukz. Attempted to find something analogous to a US hyperinflatory event (Which I have 1861-1865) and compare and contrast to the same time frame in Australia. As of yet I have no actual data or empirical evidence to compare this historical event to the effect on Australian prices at that time.

I did notice recently that China and Russia have agreed to trade in Rubles and Kwai. :2twocents

http://projectworldawareness.com/2010/11/putin-more-trade-with-china-in-local-currencies/
 
nukz said:
What i'm interested in is the last time the US had hyper-inflation, what effect did that have on Australia?
Click to expand...

If you have a read of the introduction forwarded by Jim Rogers: Hot Commodities How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market it may give you some insight into the effect of hyperinflation on US & UK trade at that time.

I own a copy myself. Which I swapped with a fellow bookworm.

Here's a excerpt:

"....And my abiding interest in history and politics reminded me of what was happening in the rest of the world affected prices on Wall Street. Knowing that War between the States in the 1860s cut off supplies of cotton to England, pushing prices so high that soon the English were planting cotton everywhere they could scrape up the soil, was extremely useful in understanding why world commodity prices were rising again more than 100 years later." at ix INTRODUCTION.

Cotton is now at 150 year highs. And certainly not due to war.

Look at Oil. Last big field discovery 40 years ago.

Look at gold. Declining discoveries and new finds in geopolitically unstable areas.

Look at copper. Also tapped out deposits in South America with lower grade ore.

Look at the GFC. Many small and medium miners can't get financing to mine.

Combine these factors with "quantitative easing". And the flood of cheap money into China.?????

Maybe not hyperinflation but certainly prices will go up.

I recommend reading what people like Jim Rogers have to say. The man is no slouch when it comes to analysing the fundamentals of commod pricing.

DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.

This is not investment advice, I'm just a mere amateur who relies on common sense to get by.

Cheers
gumby
 
Thanks Gumby loads of information just what i was after :) i actually have Rogers book but are yet to read it im quite a big fan of Jimmy he's quite down to earth thats what i found good about him.
 
nukz said:
Thanks Gumby loads of information just what i was after :) i actually have Rogers book but are yet to read it im quite a big fan of Jimmy he's quite down to earth thats what i found good about him.
Click to expand...

He has his own fund! Doesn't present as a smoke screen bull**** artist as yet.
The best thing about his fund is that most etfs haven't done well for the last 10 years. This guy started like 6 months before the GFC! ;):D
 
Edwood said:
divergence on gold seems to be getting worse fwiw.... could see a large correction around the corner
Click to expand...

Mr Z said:
Yes IMO we are going to correct, not what I call large, maybe 1300 area.
Click to expand...

Some very stinky action going on in Asian arvo session and US/Euro Futs. Gold and silver taking it too.

Come on boys help out JP Morgan and throw a bit out the window.
 

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