Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

Yes IMO we are going to correct, not what I call large, maybe 1300 area.

In my opinion we wont'. Consolidation may continue between 1350 and 1400for awhile but US$ index is struggling to hold the gain it made the last week or so above .80

The other is the dribble coming from Nadler of Kitco and news in the Financial Review that we have hit a double top. All past signs of a fresh break to the upside.

However we shall see.

 

[Mr Z]

You are splitting hairs 1350, 1300.... jeezzzzz correction, consolidation, from the highs 1350 counts as a correction for me. 1325 is a possible stopping point but the chart looks like 129x would be healthy.

Watch out for that USDX, it still has some legs, maybe into Jan as the cover thy bonus then redeploy moves are on. It could do 83 easy, mebe 85-86 area.

 

[explod]

You are splitting hairs 1350, 1300.... jeezzzzz correction, consolidation, from the highs 1350 counts as a correction for me. 1325 is a possible stopping point but the chart looks like 129x would be healthy.

Watch out for that USDX, it still has some legs, maybe into Jan as the cover thy bonus then redeploy moves are on. It could do 83 easy, mebe 85-86 area.

Apologies if I sounded a bit blunt. You may well be correct. I am just following the trend lines not only in gold but, the US$index and a sort of sentiment averaged on a number of pundits I have become accustomed to read from both the bull and bear side. Will try to be more specific.

I look more at longer term charts except when a correction is on/underway. In my more medium term a change is not really evident at this time.

Of course I am not trading the p/m's just hold physical for the long term.

Your posts and content is very much appreciated.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Your posts and content is very much appreciated.

As are yours explod

Gold Demand, Mini-Contract Trade in Korea to Climb, Exchange Operator Says

Gold demand in South Korea is set to increase as consumers buy more bars and boost investments as currencies weaken, according to Korea Exchange Inc., which expects increased trading in its so-called mini futures contract.

“Koreans have more interest in gold than other commodities, regarding it as an investment tool,” Kim In Soo, an executive director at the operator of equities and futures markets, said in an interview yesterday. Korea Exchange is set to start a spot market for bullion in 2012, Kim said, confirming an earlier plan.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...in-korea-to-climb-exchange-operator-says.html

 

[Mr Z]

Hey Explod

No need to be sorry... we can't see the future so this is all WAG's.

The 1300 area is projected by a trendline on the weekly chart running back into the 2008 lows. It has been tested 4 to 6 occasions (depending how you count them) and although we are not coming from the top of the channel it infers we are looking tired here... as noted by Ed divergences are in place and we are coming off sentiment extremes by the looks of it. Anyway, IF we correct at a similar 'speed' to the last few times it puts us in the 1300 area by as late as early Feb 2011. If we go harder 1250 is on the table for this month. I figure we will probably test 1300, some limit support should be offered up around the mid 129x's and if we are near trend at the time it should (LOL... he says with total confidence) hold up.

That said I have not written off the current consolidation action in gold yet, I'm more concerned about the USDX's potential to rally further which may not translate into gold weakness depending on what developments we have in the Euro zone. It is just an idea I have, no real solid evidence, but I think that a lot of money is 'going home' and strategies are being revised for the new year which ushers in a new performance measuring period for the fund jockeys. Anyway, after QEII, I think the funds are going to go for the Asia growth / inflation defensive plays which spells commodities and related plays in my world. The irony here, I suppose, is that given commodities are traded in USD this should lend some degree of support for it against other currencies. I think that is what we saw the start of in November. How much support I don't know, I guess it will be tempered by the flip side of that trade. I would be grateful if it results in a steadier AUD or dare I wish, weaker AUD.

Anyway... I think trading will be thin and we are in a strategy transition which could produce some interesting results.

But then mebe that is all so much BS

Apologies if I sounded a bit blunt. You may well be correct. I am just following the trend lines not only in gold but, the US$index and a sort of sentiment averaged on a number of pundits I have become accustomed to read from both the bull and bear side. Will try to be more specific.

I look more at longer term charts except when a correction is on/underway. In my more medium term a change is not really evident at this time.

Of course I am not trading the p/m's just hold physical for the long term.

Your posts and content is very much appreciated.

 

[GumbyLearner]

http://personalfinance.iafrica.com/moreinvest/694255.html

Holders of Krugerrands have done well out of the rising dollar gold price. Should the rand weaken and gold remain steady, they can reap a nice windfall.

The continually rising gold price has caught a great number of investors napping. Those who called the tune, however, have made heart-warming profits. As we go to press, the price of gold per ounce is at US$ 1406 – a far cry from 1968 when it was $35, or even 1980 when it had risen to $850.

Bearing in mind that old stockbrokers’ adage that "the bell doesn’t ring", heralding the top or bottom of a cycle, the question in many minds is whether gold – and platinum – will continue to rise and, if so, how to profit from it.

South Africans are not permitted to hold physical gold, which is about as silly as the continuation of exchange controls when global investors are pouring money into this country to take advantage of our relatively high interest rates. Gold shares are one obvious avenue, but they have not echoed the meteoric climb of gold itself. As gold analysts point out, higher gold prices don’t always mean higher margins; investors have to be concerned about management, operational cost efficiency and underlying inflation. Another option, of course, is to hold gold coins such as the Krugerrand, which is legal tender, and the British sovereign. Yet another is the exchange traded fund New Gold.

 

[sharetipsinfo]

Gold is trading at Rs. 20530 in India which is too high now and in recent past was trading much higher. We can see new high in the price of gold soon. So one should buy it at every decline. Currently gold is in correction mode for very short term.

 

[explod]

A solid summary of the situation behind the strengthening gold and silver prices in my view and also makes a good case that a correction is unlikely.

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/InvestorsDigest/2010/MPLID_112610_pg401Emb.pdf

 

[Mr Z]

Sprott is a salesman... don't get me wrong, I like him and agree with a lot of what he says BUT his short term calls are not great.

We are in quiet time, in all likelihood the Comex locals will come out to play and run as many stops as they can while they can. If they get the opening they will exploit it, this week we will see if they get the opening, looking at the 10 year note and the USDX chart I suspect they will get covering fire into the new year.



JMO

 

[explod]

Have found the quiet time has made little difference in the past. In the last 30 years the festive season till about the second week of january have seen some the highest rises on 12 occasions. In that I am saying the best up spikes over each 12 month period.

I did fair bit of research on this aspect off "the Privateer" newsletter a few years back and posted it on this thread. Not a subscriber at the moment so cannot recheck it.

And in spite of what is said about certain writers and where they sit in business, the important aspect is the rationale. Which says, the US fed are doing the wrong thing, it is becoming obvious to more investors which is driving up demand for gold and silver.

On top of all that it is in an uptrend and as an investor that is all I am interested. If the trend was to decisively change I would be out and sold as fast as I could front my metals dealer. About 1 hour.

 

[Mr Z]

They run stops both ways! What do you think the little runs ups at this time of year are about? My bet this year is down.

 

[TabJockey]

Have found the quiet time has made little difference in the past. In the last 30 years the festive season till about the second week of january have seen some the highest rises on 12 occasions. In that I am saying the best up spikes over each 12 month period.

I did fair bit of research on this aspect off "the Privateer" newsletter a few years back and posted it on this thread. Not a subscriber at the moment so cannot recheck it.

And in spite of what is said about certain writers and where they sit in business, the important aspect is the rationale. Which says, the US fed are doing the wrong thing, it is becoming obvious to more investors which is driving up demand for gold and silver.

On top of all that it is in an uptrend and as an investor that is all I am interested. If the trend was to decisively change I would be out and sold as fast as I could front my metals dealer. About 1 hour.

What sort of trend are you looking at though? 1 month? 1 year? 10 years? 30 years? 400 years(I have seen this quoted, its hard to see how its relevant)?

 

[explod]

It has been in a solid uptrend for 10 years. My stop would be around US$1250, that would signal a change in the trend. I have been invested in physical for 6 years.

What is not relevant TGabJockey ?

Mr Z I am not a betting man. On current sentiment I see it sideways to up if there is a change. Every time it goes toward US$1350 the buyers move in. This has been a feature the last few months.

 

[Mr Z]

Mr Z I am not a betting man. On current sentiment I see it sideways to up if there is a change. Every time it goes toward US$1350 the buyers move in. This has been a feature the last few months.

That is a bet...

and every time it peaks 1400 the sellers move in. This has been a feature of the last two months. :

I look at a lot of charts, I look at a lot of gold charts.... this one, to me, looks like it is exhausting and needs a correction. If it does not I will be concerned, it would be healthier to give a little back here than it would be to charge on. We need to shake the weaker hands out and find a nice solid floor. Like I said I am only looking for 1300 or so and back to trend from the GFC low... it would be perfectly normal movement. 1250 would probably be the worst of it, if it came to that.

Trust me, the locals will try and run this market around for a few weeks... that is what they do when it gets quiet, they go hunting stops and they are very often successful in flushing some action out.

 

[TabJockey]

I meant that the 400 year gold trend is not relevant.

 

[explod]

I have never thought of a 400 year trend, nor have I noticed anyone else here mention same.

Gold has been a basic form of monetary exchange for 6000 years though. Paper money comes and then floats away in the breeze as empires crash.

 

[electronicmaster]

Gold Fibonacci Analysis - 12.19.2010




endlessmountain | December 19, 2010 | 31 likes, 0 dislikes

http://thesilverlog.blogspot.com

 

[GumbyLearner]

Gold to trade in 2011 between $1050-1100 according to Doug Kass.
I hope he's right, I'll be ready to buy more when the weak hands fold on the table.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From cnbc website

Just when you thought it was safe to turn on the lights – there’s Doug Kass blowing into his noise maker and yelling,"Surprise!"

We know what you’re thinking… we shouldn’t have been startled.

All month long Kass, a widely followed strategist and president of Seabreeze Partners, has been revealing new surprises from his annual list of Surprises for 2011 on CNBC’s Fast Money.

The latest follow.

SURPRISE #9

Looks like gold bugs are about to encounter some pretty strong insecticide in the guise of falling prices.

"My first forecast is contrary to the high price forecasts by many of the brokerages," he says.

Next year Kass expects the price of gold to plunge $250 an ounce in a 4 week period with gold counted among the worse performing asset classes in the new year.

Sure you can point to a slew of catalysts to take gold higher (deflation, inflation, peace, turmoil) but Kass thinks another catalyst trumps all others– too many bulls and not enough bears.

”The price of gold has risen from about $250/oz eleven years ago to about $1370/oz today - compounding at over a 16% rate annually,” he tells our producers ahead of the broadcast.

"As a result, investing in gold has become the sine qua non for hedge hoggers and other institutional investors - and in due course gold has become a favored investment among individual investors."

Simply stated gold has become a crowded trade. "Wide prices swings are what to expect in 2011," he counsels.

Click here for the CNBC talkback excerpt ->>> http://www.cnbc.com/id/40754977

 

[GumbyLearner]

Gold to trade in 2011 between $1050-1100 according to Doug Kass.
I hope he's right, I'll be ready to buy more when the weak hands fold on the table.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From cnbc website

Just when you thought it was safe to turn on the lights – there’s Doug Kass blowing into his noise maker and yelling,"Surprise!"

We know what you’re thinking… we shouldn’t have been startled.

All month long Kass, a widely followed strategist and president of Seabreeze Partners, has been revealing new surprises from his annual list of Surprises for 2011 on CNBC’s Fast Money.

The latest follow.

SURPRISE #9

Looks like gold bugs are about to encounter some pretty strong insecticide in the guise of falling prices.

"My first forecast is contrary to the high price forecasts by many of the brokerages," he says.

Next year Kass expects the price of gold to plunge $250 an ounce in a 4 week period with gold counted among the worse performing asset classes in the new year.

Sure you can point to a slew of catalysts to take gold higher (deflation, inflation, peace, turmoil) but Kass thinks another catalyst trumps all others– too many bulls and not enough bears.

”The price of gold has risen from about $250/oz eleven years ago to about $1370/oz today - compounding at over a 16% rate annually,” he tells our producers ahead of the broadcast.

"As a result, investing in gold has become the sine qua non for hedge hoggers and other institutional investors - and in due course gold has become a favored investment among individual investors."

Simply stated gold has become a crowded trade. "Wide prices swings are what to expect in 2011," he counsels.

Click here for the CNBC talkback excerpt ->>> http://www.cnbc.com/id/40754977

Check out his 2010 predictions here

Yeah right and check out some of his 2010 predictions here....

http://wallstreetpit.com/13213-doug-kass-predictions-for-2010

Doug Kass’ Predictions for 2010
By editor|Dec 28, 2009, 12:35 PM|Author's Website

Hedge fund manager and financial columnist Doug Kass shares in this CNBC interview his 20 possible outlying events for the coming year.

According to Kass:
1. Corporate profits soar 100% in the first quarter of 2010 from a year ago, while GDP jumps 4.5%. (wrong)

2. Housing and jobs fail to revive. (right)

3. The U.S. dollar explodes higher. (wrong)

4. The price of gold topples.
“Gold is going to break $900,” he said. “It’s one of the most crowded trades.” (absurdly wrong)

crowded trade my ****
Cheers
gumby

DYOR

 

[Mr Z]

If he hasn't made money in gold and didn't call the beginning of the bull then why listen to him?

Every year these guys pop up, who have completely missed a market that has compounded at 17% for a while now, and say it's all over.... with all due respect most of them have not got a clue what it is all about. When they get bullish then worry...

Who is Mr Kass anyway?