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Gold Price - Where is it heading?
- Thread starter guycharles
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The volume pattern is not correct for H&S. This looks more like a big choppy consolidation for now.
A fund driven 'cover thy bonus' trade is in play, the US operates on a calendar year. It will most likely be choppy until Jan, then the fund money must find a new home. Note... it has not run to UST's with the rallying USDX. Also note that EUD & AUD gold are close to breakouts.
We are likely to be into thin volume for December, it could be an interesting ride.
COT numbers are available tonight, it will be interesting to see what they suggest.
A fund driven 'cover thy bonus' trade is in play, the US operates on a calendar year. It will most likely be choppy until Jan, then the fund money must find a new home. Note... it has not run to UST's with the rallying USDX. Also note that EUD & AUD gold are close to breakouts.
We are likely to be into thin volume for December, it could be an interesting ride.
COT numbers are available tonight, it will be interesting to see what they suggest.
Take a look at the OI for Dec and Jan delivery. Something is up, definitely more than just bigdogs rolling into the next contract.
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Since Oct the commercials appear to have been covering short positions. So far they have not sold this rally. Very bullish when you consider what is happening at the CFTC. The funds appear to have lost a little nerve coming into year end and are letting the commercials off the hook a little. My bet is a "cover thy bonus" trade is in. That will change come Jan when the money will be redeployed and I am betting that in the New Year it follows a 'tangibles' path. IMO it is going to be a very good year for small to mid cap miners, support industries and commodities. The QE rubber will hit the road and in all the places they least want to see it --> JMO. I'm Xmas shopping a long those lines on weakness FWIW.
We will see.... but I can't get bearish gold here on what I see, not yet.
We will see.... but I can't get bearish gold here on what I see, not yet.
Do you read Harvey Organ, Mr Z?
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
He talks a lot of ****, but it is interesting to see participation numbers crunched daily.
http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
He talks a lot of ****, but it is interesting to see participation numbers crunched daily.
explod
explod
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He is full of it! Lots of it.... damn goldbugs give us sane gold investors a bad name
No...! but I will have a look... while holding my nose mind you!
Thanks!
Had a look myself, sounds on the ball.
No one wants to believe that cash is trash.
Going to be some heartache and and pain to those clinging to the current world as we know it.
Just plodding along in the vegie patch.
The guy just fabricated a story about Scotia Bank, Silver and his son, or at best grossly misrepresented the situation. Him and Douglas from GATA beat the whole thing up... the story had bus size holes in it! Douglas does this sort of thing regularly... one is left assuming it is good for his business.
LOL... hmmmmmmmmmmmm.
They where claiming no silver at the time.... I know a State side dealer that offered to get them as much as they could handle --> NO REPLY?!
There is snake oil being sold all around in this market... both sides!
explod
explod
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How do you know, how about some facts on who says its a beat up
It was inconsistent with many things, Scotia's normal practice for one thing... nobody who is not vetted staff gets access to the main vaults. In the end end Puplava had a side swipe at the story on FSN News Hour, go dig around the archives at the time. He had a guest explaining the sort of security that goes on in the main vaults... what he saw, if he indeed saw it at all, was a holding vault or a working vault where metal in transit is kept short term.
Douglas keeps talking about futures in London... on a spot market!!!!! Anyway it goes on and on and on... For US gold bug consumption only! IMO
explod
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Trembling Hand
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Huh? why.
LOL... hmmmmmmmmmmmm.
They where claiming no silver at the time.... I know a State side dealer that offered to get them as much as they could handle --> NO REPLY?!
There is snake oil being sold all around in this market... both sides!
Can you link? I haven't heard about any of this...Scotia Bank has been in the mainstream press before due to silver delivery issues to that old Indian lady.
Snake oil abounds not only in both sides of the gold market but in all markets. Investors who replace due diligence with greed get their comeuppance. Those who have done their due diligence will care little for the practicalities of say, a conspiracy to suppress the price of gold. In fact as an opportunistic gold buyer that's exactly what I want, keep it down for as long as you like!
The conspiracy theories may be true, they may be not. Both options are largely immaterial to my interests as a conviction gold buyer.
Regardless, am I one to ignore the likes of GATA when they break a story like Adrian Maguire? If Adrian Douglas wants to spend a lot of his time and hard work writing articles like this series:
https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081310.html
https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081810.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-more-forensic-evidence-gold-silver-price-manipulation
am I one to simply ignore them? Until something convinces me otherwise, I am happy to give them the same attempt at balanced judgement as all the other analysts.
At least they don't sit on any fences
So we dont' really know.
What are you on about...?
Hey look, seriously, you have been given a heads up. Investigate it for yourself then you might get why his story was highly, highly unlikely to be correct. Very little rang true with any of my experience in the area... maybe you know better. Go listen to the Puplava interviews at the time, I forget the guys name but gives a very good description of how these facilities run and what they where likely shown.
These guys take things so far out of context it is not funny!
BTW Spot markets are not futures markets, take a close look at how the LBMA works and what it does, then think about the claims made there and how and what they have distorted.
Swallow it all if you want... don't complain to me if you end up with Bombay Belly
Seems interesting, compared to the OI graph of silver for Dec delivery which has a nice smooth down-trend since Oct.
Gold OI looks more like the Copper OI.
explod
explod
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Take it all with a grain of sault myself, just looking for your reasoning.
Gold is on a long term up trend and in the pm's I have backed silver, but the value of money or lack of it is my prime interest and although some of the pundits print and espouse mostly absolute rubbish there is always something to learn from it all.
The bears on pm's have the overall financial press on their side so one has to sift through the other to get some ballance, if that is possible of course.
Interesting.
And on gold, on the yearly peaks over the last 30 years, the period of mid December to second week in January has seen gold hit its 12 month peak 30%of the time.
Can you link? I haven't heard about any of this...Scotia Bank has been in the mainstream press before due to silver delivery issues to that old Indian lady.
Snake oil abounds not only in both sides of the gold market but in all markets. Investors who replace due diligence with greed get their comeuppance. Those who have done their due diligence will care little for the practicalities of say, a conspiracy to suppress the price of gold. In fact as an opportunistic gold buyer that's exactly what I want, keep it down for as long as you like!
The conspiracy theories may be true, they may be not. Both options are largely immaterial to my interests as a conviction gold buyer.
Regardless, am I one to ignore the likes of GATA when they break a story like Adrian Maguire? If Adrian Douglas wants to spend a lot of his time and hard work writing articles like this series:
https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081310.html
https://marketforceanalysis.com/articles/latest_article_081810.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-more-forensic-evidence-gold-silver-price-manipulation
am I one to simply ignore them? Until something convinces me otherwise, I am happy to give them the same attempt at balanced judgement as all the other analysts.
At least they don't sit on any fences
The Organ story was all over the place at the time... not sure where you'd get it now. Mebe the King World News Archives... he did an interview.
I have said before these markets are pushed around in the short term "for fun and profit" in the long run they have been working quite well IMO.
The GATA camp refuse to allow for the legitimate industrial use of hedging, they engage in hyperbole and exaggeration to get their point across, some of which I believe is legitimate. In the process they manage to come off sounding quite loony, enough so to scare any thinking conservative investor away from gold. Goldbugs just don't seem to get that many commercial transactions that involve large quantities of metal that is not visible on the Comex are indeed hedged on the Comex. They carry on about it all being naked when that is not the case. The Comex was always a hedgers market, it was never a physical market... London for physical NY for hedging.
The Christian camp refuses to acknowledge that the big commercials can and do bat the price around for profit. The big commercials have a very good picture of the market structure and of the real commercial drivers...and they run their own book. The temptation in small markets like gold and silver to run stops etc to make easy money is just undeniable. Some of them had no real reason to be there other than speculation yet they where classed commercials, AIG comes to mind back when they where still in the silver market. These guys know how and when to apply pressure at the margin... especially back when they where trading against the mechanical funds that seemed to be so childishly predictable. Ted Butler has made many good observations about these markets.
IMO the truth lies in the middle somewhere but no one really has all the numbers to work it out. Nor do we need to... it will sort itself out and the patient will do well out of it. For all that and IMO gold and silver are quite well behaved technically speaking.
Take it or leave it!
Trembling Hand
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Nah thats normal. By the way. You do know, as a gold expert, looking at Dec to Jan is the wrong contract?
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