Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Mr Z · 29 November 2010

explod said:
Take it all with a grain of sault myself, just looking for your reasoning.

Gold is on a long term up trend and in the pm's I have backed silver, but the value of money or lack of it is my prime interest and although some of the pundits print and espouse mostly absolute rubbish there is always something to learn from it all.

The bears on pm's have the overall financial press on their side so one has to sift through the other to get some ballance, if that is possible of course.

Interesting.

And on gold, on the yearly peaks over the last 30 years, the period of mid December to second week in January has seen gold hit its 12 month peak 30%of the time.

Silver was the one... nice choice IMO. I have too much silver for any sane individual... LOL! Silver has a very sound bull case sans any manipulation argument or BS from crackpots. The damn crackpots actually work against us by putting well heeled conservative investors off the real bull case. I can well do without the Organs of this world... I will evaluate my own COT data thank you very much! Anyway... I am thinking that the strength will see us through till March to May area this year. Some of the options speculation seems to be backing that up....

We C

Mr Z · 29 November 2010

One of the better pieces...

... put out around the time the H. Organ (Mr Tool!) poo was being flung around.

Debunking the Precious Metals Fear-Mongering Campaign
Submitted by Erik Townsend on Sun, 18 Apr 2010
Fighting GATA's lies with hard facts

GumbyLearner · 4 December 2010

Still holding physical. Almost doubled since purchase.
Will be getting more this month.
Great protection when the market is awash with so many $$$.

China gold imports soar six-fold on investment demand

http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-53292620101202

(Reuters) - Investors' rapidly-growing appetite for gold has pushed up China's gold imports six-fold in the first 10 months of the year, a Shanghai Gold Exchange official said on Thursday, highlighting the appeal of the precious metal as a hedging tool.

In a rare revelation of China's gold trade data, which is not published by customs, exchange chairman Shen Xiangrong said the country imported 209.72 tonnes of gold in the first ten months of the year.

The huge jump in gold imports comes against a backdrop of soaring gold prices, with spot metal touching a record high of more than $1,400 an ounce in November, and up by more than a quarter this year.

"Uncertainties in domestic and global economies, and increasing anticipation of inflation.....

GumbyLearner · 7 December 2010

http://www.independent.ie/national-...inal-links-of-cashforgold-stores-2449465.html

Gardai probe potential criminal links of cash-for-gold stores
By Edel Kennedy

http://www.independent.ie/national-...inal-links-of-cashforgold-stores-2449465.html

Monday December 06 2010

GARDAI are to investigate cash-for-gold stores over fears criminal gangs are using them to sell stolen goods.

Gardai are reporting an increase in the number of burglars who are ignoring flat-screen TVs and cameras when they break into homes -- and instead grabbing whatever jewellery they can find.

There is currently no legislation to regulate the industry or to force those who are selling the jewellery to prove that they obtained it from a legitimate source.

Justice Minister Dermot Ahern has now asked Garda Commissioner Fachtna Murphy to launch an investigation in to how much stolen gold is being sold through these shops. He has also asked them to investigate if criminal gangs are operating any of these stores as a front for selling stolen valuables and money laundering.

The garda report is not likely to be submitted until next year. Any changes introduced as a result will be done by Mr Ahern's successor after last week's announcement of his intention to retire from public office.

"I have formally asked the commissioner for his view as to the extent of criminal offences being committed in the transactions carried out at cash-for-gold locations," Mr Ahern said.

"In particular, the commissioner has been asked to examine whether the trade may be linked generally, or in particular areas, to burglary offences."

The cash-for-gold market has exploded in the past two years thanks to the precious metal's high price. It currently stands at â‚¬900 an ounce, up from â‚¬183 an ounce in December 1999.

Some people in dire economic straits are bringing their jewellery to these stores, while others are selling jewellery that has gone out of fashion. Last night, Labour TD Tommy Broughan welcomed the move by the minister.

Agentm · 7 December 2010

Mr Z said:
Silver was the one... nice choice IMO. I have too much silver for any sane individual... LOL! Silver has a very sound bull case sans any manipulation argument or BS from crackpots. The damn crackpots actually work against us by putting well heeled conservative investors off the real bull case. I can well do without the Organs of this world... I will evaluate my own COT data thank you very much! Anyway... I am thinking that the strength will see us through till March to May area this year. Some of the options speculation seems to be backing that up....

We C

Whiskers · 7 December 2010

Agentm said:

****, eh!

Edwood · 7 December 2010

nice run up in the PM's you guy's will be enjoying this (slightly more than the cricket anyways : )

Mr Z · 7 December 2010

That dopey video is popping up everywhere!

Not what you call documentary quality information...

Will it be the first Internet based "viral cornering" of a market? LOL... if enough people swallow it, it could turn out to be an interesting experiment.

explod · 7 December 2010

Mr Z said:
That dopey video is popping up everywhere!

Not what you call documentary quality information...

Will it be the first Internet based "viral cornering" of a market? LOL... if enough people swallow it, it could turn out to be an interesting experiment.

Yep, I put it up first on the "Conspiracy Theorey Thread" and they took it all to heart. Its just a cartoon for CS

Anyhow, good rise on gold but go silver.

Worthless Paper · 8 December 2010

a collection of gold price predictions posted by Bron on the PM blog this morn:

# $1650 - Philip Klapwijk, GFMS, 3 Dec: The consultancy forecasts silver prices to average around $30 an ounce in 2011, peaking at $35, he said, while gold would peak at around $1,600 to $1,650 per ounce, and average $1,400
# $1900 - Peter Krauth, Money Morning, 2 Dec: before 2011 closes out, I predict that each ounce of the prized "yellow metal" will be trading at $1,900.
# $1750 - Goldman Sachs, 1 Dec: we expect U.S. real interest rates to begin to rise in 2011, likely causing gold prices to peak near $1,750/oz in 2012.
# $5200 - Louise Yamada, LY Advisors, 15 Nov: gold most likely wouldn't represent a true bubble unless and until it gets to $5,200 an ounce within a couple of years.
# $2000 - Alpesh Patel, Praefinium Partners, 22 Oct: another obvious one is long gold over the next six to nine months as it hits $2,000 an ounce.
# $3500 - Robert Lenzner reporting on a “gold guru”, 18 Oct: gold will notch one new high after another all the way up to $3500.
# $1650 - Goldman Sachs, 13 Oct: revised its 12 month target from $1,365 to $1,650.
# $1500 - Jochen Hitzfeld, UniCredit, 12 Oct: the price of gold will spike to USD 1,500 per troy ounce in 2011.

sinner · 8 December 2010

Last nights move in bonds was big news.

The market basically told Bernanke to sod off?

Higher rates generally do not bode well for gold longs.

explod · 8 December 2010

sinner said:
Last nights move in bonds was big news.

The market basically told Bernanke to sod off?

Higher rates generally do not bode well for gold longs.

Not sure I see that. Could you elaborate?

The rate rise is the last thing the US wants or can handle but has to go that way to attract buyers as no one wants a bar of them. And I think they will still fail as the bonds are all part of the ponzie party and the general market is catching on. They went to virtual zero rates to stave off the GFC but in fact little has improved, some would say its worse.

Gold and silver may consolidate for awhile but that is all IMHO. It now has investor momentum, being broadly discussed and jumped on on any dips.

Mr Z · 8 December 2010

Its as bullish as I can imagine for commodities and precious metals. The show starts in earnest next year IMO.

Worthless Paper · 8 December 2010

agree with you there Z, big year for PMs next year...the euro daisy chain should come under pressure soon. Nick @ sharelynx just had this to say:

moodys downgraded hungary
bulgarian bank delinquiencies doubled from 6 to 12%.......ditto for romania
greek banks own one third of bulgarian banks
bank austria and erste bank underwrote a huge pile of eastern european debt that is going bad quickly
bank austria, austria ´s largest bank, is owned by unicredit, italy ´s largest bank which also swallowed the massively hemorrhaging HBV bavarian bank
if unicredit falls, the italian state will fall and take down french and german banks with them

Whiskers · 8 December 2010

Mr Z said:
Its as bullish as I can imagine for commodities and precious metals. The show starts in earnest next year IMO.

What show are you referring to, the price of gold soaring?

I'm thinking the POG and commodities generally will remain good in AUD and most other local currencies, or maybe even get a little better, but the USDX will rise a bit more for awhile and the USD price come off the boil.

explod · 8 December 2010

Whiskers said:
What show are you referring to, the price of gold soaring?

I'm thinking the POG and commodities generally will remain good in AUD and most other local currencies, or maybe even get a little better, but the USDX will rise a bit more for awhile and the USD price come off the boil.

The QE and money printing in the US is now being openly discussed in the US press.

Gold will dip, as it did today, violently in off market periods and then be picked up by the rising demand during normal trade.

It may remain sideways after the drop this morning but it will be very short lived. We are entering a period of high sentiment against the US$ which translates into higher gold prices.

Paper cash is trash.

Trembling Hand · 8 December 2010

explod said:
Gold will dip, as it did today, violently in off market periods and then be picked up by the rising demand during normal trade.

Huh?

dip in off market?? what you talking about Explod?

Mr Z · 8 December 2010

Whiskers said:
What show are you referring to, the price of gold soaring?

I'm thinking the POG and commodities generally will remain good in AUD and most other local currencies, or maybe even get a little better, but the USDX will rise a bit more for awhile and the USD price come off the boil.

Take a look at the OI in out of the money options in gold into mid next year. I don't think that the USDX rallying will kill this party.

Mr Z · 8 December 2010

Trembling Hand said:
Huh?

dip in off market?? what you talking about Explod?

I think the reference is to the NY Globex session after the Comex closes. It has been the scene of many sharp price changes in the past, raids if you like, the liquidiy is normally thin so I guess it is a cheap way to buy a big move. However last night looked quite steady down from the Comex open, all about the USD, with more to come tonight by the looks of things a the moment.

Trembling Hand · 8 December 2010

Mr Z said:
I think the reference is to the NY Globex session after the Comex closes.

Thats pattern as I have said many time before is a standard pattern in all markets during bull runs. Big moves during out of hours trading, then back filling during high volume sessions. It happens in equities and other commods as well. Of course if a normal pattern happens in PMs and its down its a conspiracy.

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