Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[explod]

Explod you freely comment, almost always incorrectly, about the futures market then when called on the most basic of errors you spout out this nonsense,



Either educate yourself about what you comment on or continue to talk like a fool. I don't care but be warned - I will stick my head in from time to time to point out your most remedial of errors just in case some poor sole confuses your comments with an authoritative view.

Oh dear!! And again this is just nutz wrong!!! please explain??

I will back off. I am a long term investor and follow long term trends. I am not interested or enticed to follow any other path and do not need to learn any other way.

I understand that gold and silver is in a good long term trend so am on it. The fundamantals of money as I understand it would indicate that this trend will contiue for a long time. I do not have to stare at a screen all day so can paint in my studio with peace of mind.

I will refrain from commenting on the short term traders but will still put my two bobs worth in on the basics as I see them as I enjoy the gold thread.

There are a lot of technical posters on this thread who in fact often call it wrong but I tend to get the idea that the technical followers hold the fundamental approach in a bit of disdain. I remember it in another profession, you have those who love to watch tacho's and play with radios and those who want to get the job done. Includes a sprinkling of all.

 

[professor_frink]

explod,

for a basic run down on futures margin, have a look here

http://www.futurestradingpedia.com/futures_margin.htm

should help a bit.

 

[Mr Z]

OK trembling, what are your thoughts on option expiry, especially when the contracts move to the next month?

SX

Oh there is no doubt that both gold and silver are pushed around in the short term for fun and profit but as for an organized cartel that is just bunk. This is a "cartel of common interest".... these guys have been trading these markets in the same way for years, the behaviors are ingrained and are hung over from a 25 year bear market. They all act the same way in the way that car dealers act similarly... because that is how you made a profit. We are only now getting to the point that they are changing tactics and the thing is that the PM markets are so small in dollar terms that these guys dominated, their rules ran the show! Personally I liked it because I knew how it worked, now things are changing I have to learn new tricks!... anyway, like I said I think this is a 'watershed' year.

Anwhoooo goldbugs assign a mythical power of total control to this cartel and then they view the whole market through this lens. Sure there is bent stuff going on and sure some knuckles are going to be wrapped but despite this gold has compounded at %17 for ten years or so now, what is not to like? How exactly do 'the cartel' have total control of this....?! Short answer is they don't, the majority of this is normal market action....IMO.

2c

 

[Southern X]

I've never been a goldbug. I don't even know how I've been assigned this role, especially from my posts on this thread.

Simply mentioning this odd margin move?

I'm not a bug for practical reasons: in the world the bugs envision it would be better to hold guns, bullets, preserved food, and liquor; I play explorecos and am more interested in geology and metallurgy; too much reading from these GATAs and CIGAs and I've got a full plate, and; the alleged cartel never phones to give a heads-up for their next dastardly move.

On the other hand I don't care for people pontificating from their high horse, arrogantly prescribing intelligence and characters to others based on their... what?

So let's leave the genius certificate at the door and reason like adults.

SX

 

[explod]

Pure and simple, all we have is a dilution of paper money in the US (Japan and others too) by its printing of paper money (promise stuff) in the first place. In the second, the world population is growing and the demands on resources are getting to limit, food is becoming scarce and so on.

As just stated gold is but a minute part of the overall market but has sentimental and some intrinsic value. A small increase in sentiment is going to keep it syrocketing and that last word will only further increase sentiment.

It will just keep going up in my view so its worth being on. Too easy.

And the rhetoric via Bloomberg, Jon Nadler of Kitco and many other Wall Street commentators makes it very clear that they detest gold and by inference do everything they can to suppress interest. There is just too much media noise in that way for it to be denied.

In fact some of the reports of Nadler lately have been laughable and links he puts up against quotes when checked often say the opposite to what Nadler asserts in the article. A rule of dealing with the media is, "get the good one liner in and you are home and hosed" the detail will rarely be read or questioned.

And thanks for the link Prof/f., I will check it out.

 

[Mr Z]

I've never been a goldbug. I don't even know how I've been assigned this role, especially from my posts on this thread.

Simply mentioning this odd margin move?

I'm not a bug for practical reasons: in the world the bugs envision it would be better to hold guns, bullets, preserved food, and liquor; I play explorecos and am more interested in geology and metallurgy; too much reading from these GATAs and CIGAs and I've got a full plate, and; the alleged cartel never phones to give a heads-up for their next dastardly move.

On the other hand I don't care for people pontificating from their high horse, arrogantly prescribing intelligence and characters to others based on their... what?

So let's leave the genius certificate at the door and reason like adults.

SX

I didn't call you a goldbug!

Goldbugs like piles of can, coins and bullets.

High horse, arrogant.... LOL WHAT?

Oh sorry... I will leave now, I appear to have upset you.

Jeeez Louise!

 

[Mr Z]

Pure and simple, all we have is a dilution of paper money in the US (Japan and others too) by its printing of paper money (promise stuff) in the first place. In the second, the world population is growing and the demands on resources are getting to limit, food is becoming scarce and so on.

As just stated gold is but a minute part of the overall market but has sentimental and some intrinsic value. A small increase in sentiment is going to keep it syrocketing and that last word will only further increase sentiment.

It will just keep going up in my view so its worth being on. Too easy.

And the rhetoric via Bloomberg, Jon Nadler of Kitco and many other Wall Street commentators makes it very clear that they detest gold and by inference do everything they can to suppress interest. There is just too much media noise in that way for it to be denied.

In fact some of the reports of Nadler lately have been laughable and links he puts up against quotes when checked often say the opposite to what Nadler asserts in the article. A rule of dealing with the media is, "get the good one liner in and you are home and hosed" the detail will rarely be read or questioned.

And thanks for the link Prof/f., I will check it out.

Its just Nadlers job.... he probably buys gold with what Kitco and Co pay him to play Devils advocate. They need guys like him to keep the little guys buying and selling. Its all about turnover for them, all they are doing is employing guys like Nadler to stir the pot.

Everyone is just talking their book, people hold gold for too long, Wall St hates it only because they don't make money out of it. Pure and simple.... the finance guys will rarely try sell you gold, they prefer most anything else... it all turns faster than gold and it is turnover that greases their wheels. If GS put out a big gold call, well then look out for a top!

 

[explod]

"Thought For The Day

The ultimate proof of a bull market is the increase of margin rates.

They are a professional tool to cover shorts and dictated by the board of directors of the exchange, which means floor traders."

The above quote is from Jsminset today: link

http://jsmineset.com/

 

[Mr Z]

Jim is the Pied Piper of goldbugs! He gives some sugar, feeds their paranoia and pumps TNX. He has an agenda that leads to his pocket, take it all with salt.

Jim is twisting reality in that quote.

Once upon a time he promoted Monex on his site. If you know anything about them it should give you a clue.

Research Tan Range.... you should find out what goes on.

 

[nukz]

Analysis: Deregulation set to lift China gold demand

By Rujun Shen and Nick Trevethan
SINGAPORE | Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:24am EST

(Reuters) - Plans to free up China's gold market are likely to boost imports of the precious metal to satisfy investor demand, putting the Middle Kingdom on course to eclipse India as the top global consumer in a few years.

China, the world's largest consumer of base metals and the second biggest user of oil, is on gold bugs' radar screens, with any hint that Beijing may want to boost its gold holdings rippling through international markets, sending bullion higher.

So far China's central bank has shied away from the international market and has instead been building reserves from its domestic mining industry, the largest in the world.

But that may change after the People's Bank of China said in August it would let its banks export and import more gold in a program to drive the development of the country's market in the precious metal.

By opening up the market, the PBOC may be able to draw tonnes of gold into China, which it could then pick up on the domestic market, without disrupting market equilibrium too much.

"The way they will accumulate a massive amount of gold is by opening up imports and making sure there is heck a lot of gold swishing around in the domestic market," said Mark Pervan, a senior commodities analyst at ANZ.

"It's just too big a player in the market. Investors are looking for any signs of China buying gold on the world market. If Beijing said it was buying 100 tonnes, prices would leap, not because of this 100 tonnes, but because of the 300 tonnes the market would expect to follow."

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENT CHANNELS

Appetite for the precious metal has grown rapidly in China as investors worried about inflationary pressure turn to alternative investment channels.

Demand was expected to rise to around 600 tonnes in 2011, according to a Reuters survey of five analysts, and may go even higher.

"The jewelry sector is growing, as is demand for investment gold. A clampdown on property investment and speculation in other markets has resulted in more money going into gold and jewelry," said William Adams, analyst at FastMarkets.com.

"Jewelry demand in China has probably managed to rise and may even be growing at a faster pace than the average over the decade of about 7 percent."

China's gold consumption this year is forecast between 450 and 600 tonnes, with a consensus of 500 tonnes, analysts surveyed by Reuters said. The WGC estimates demand at 510 tonnes.

Several researchers have urged Beijing to increase its gold reserves to diversify more of its $2.6 trillion in foreign currency reserves, and a more open market would allow the central government to build stocks of gold more quickly, without sending tremors through the international market.

Although no detailed follow-up rules have been announced, analysts expect Beijing to open up the gold market as a prelude to deregulation of bond and foreign exchange markets.

"It really flags the start of a theme of deregulation in the financial markets. They are using the gold market as a test case," said Pervan.

China's total demand has risen by around 20 percent in three of the past four years, while demand for gold as an investment jumped 60 percent in 2009, data from the WGC show.

On an annualized basis, China's retail investment demand would rise another 44 percent in 2010 to more than 150 tonnes for this year, while jewelry consumption will rise only 2.5 percent to 360 tonnes, based on Reuters calculations using WGC data.

"We expect China to participate a lot more in the precious metals market," said UBS analyst Edel Tully. "We expect imports to accelerate. They (the Chinese) are making a very good attempt to catch up with India, which is the largest physical market."

USURPING INDIA?

Gold demand in India, battered by poor monsoon rains that darkened the outlook for farmers, the country's key customers for the metal, slumped last year, as high prices felled imports by about a third.

But India's overseas purchases may rise to a record high and even breach the 800-tonne mark this year, as demand is fed by a healthy monsoon that promises good crops.

If Chinese consumption continues to grow at recent rates, it could take the top spot from India in three or four years.

There are no official figures for mainland China imports, but data from Hong Kong, Asia's biggest bullion trading center, shows exports from the region to the mainland in the first eight months of the year were already nearly double those for all of 2009, pointing to surging appetite on the mainland.

On an annualized basis, China would import 118 tonnes of gold through Hong Kong, the main conduit for gold flows into the mainland, versus 44 tonnes last year and 90 tonnes in 2008.

China's gold output in the first eight months of the year rose 8.85 percent from a year earlier to 217.953 tonnes, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said.

"Domestic production is unlikely to grow much next year, so we'll probably see a lot more imports," said Zhu Yilin, general manager of the research and development department of Jingyi Futures in Shanghai.

And that means Chinese investors will have little choice but to go out to the world market to sate their gold fever.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A914220101110?pageNumber=1

Although it's just a matter of time before China eclipses India this might speed up the process.

 

[Edwood]

some nice selling down the end of last week, the divergence called it well >> is it still a bear raid do you think Mr Z? (Been wondering why you're so into the detail on volume of very short term futures action if you trade long term TA - isn't it all a but noisy for you down at those minute-by-minute intervals?)

cheers, Ed

 

[Mr Z]

I trade gold stocks short term but the serious money is in bullion on a longer time frame in what they call a bullion account. I'm capable of walking and chewing gum. I don't dick around with CFD's. We are on support here, so far nothing is broken... next week will be very informative.

 

[Edwood]

Ah OK, so I guess no worries at all then for you given you're trading long term TA if we get back to 1100's.

(I have never traded CFD's fwiw, I'm assuming you might have given your negative views toward them?)

 

[Mr Z]

Why...? I never saw sense in them. Saving maybe the Man model, they where fully hedged. Most 'gold traders' here seem to use them, might as well go to an SP Bookie IMO... but to each their own. The damn things are actually illegal in the US, which is surprising when you consider what they do tolerate.

Gold $250... is no problem for me, why would any particular price be an issue?

 

[nukz]

I always thought this prediction was interesting for the DOW its following the theory of Shoulders > Head > Shoulders > Crash

The only reason i put it in this forum section is because i only really deal in shares and commodities and the shares are mining based anyway hehe but this could have some very interesting implications if achieved on gold/silver

 

[Mr Z]

H&S needs volume to define a legit pattern... where is the volume?

 

[explod]

hehe but this could have some very interesting implications if achieved on gold/silver

And what may those implications be from your take nuks?

 

[Edwood]

here's an update on that gold PF highlighted at the start if this year.
Played out alright in the end I guess

 

[nukz]

http://goldsurvivalguide.co.nz/casey-research-when-to-sell-gold

I thought this was quite a good read

 

[Edwood]

bit of +ve divergence showing up now on the hourly, one more drop could be worth a long imo for a bounce. also around the median line for some support - stops close, dyor etc