Gold Price - Where is it heading?

Edwood · 17 November 2010

Mr Z said:
People, people, people.... don't short gold until sometime around May 2011! Seasonals, seasonals, seasonals.... it is just not worth playing against them! I told ya not to step in front of this train month or two ago...

when should we expect these seasonals to kick in Mr Z?

Edwood · 17 November 2010

gone long 1333.8. Reasonable entry for a long compared to last week I guess

Mr Z · 17 November 2010

Edwood said:
when should we expect these seasonals to kick in Mr Z?

Oh dear....

Look Edwood you are obviously a short term trading wizard so I don't know why you should need to concern yourself with such things. If you are curious, which I highly doubt, I suggest that you look at a longer term chart and work out where the probabilities lie at this time of year. I play probabilities and being older, lazy and maybe even a little wise I like to swim with the tide.

Now you called a bounce didn't you?

Uncle Festivus · 17 November 2010

In the good ol days seasonals were probably relevant ie jewellery etc but it's a new ball game these days. Right now it's about newly printed money searching for yield or a new bubble to inflate. It won't take much to take down gold because of the weak hands only too willing to dump & run, maybe back down to the 900's. Who knows?

It's (gold) way too aligned with equity market sentiment for this to be 'it'. But if China decides that they can't control their bubbles then all bets are off.....I think there is one more flight to the $USD before the 'end'?

Mr Z · 17 November 2010

Good old days?

They have done fine by me as a guide since 2001... I seem to remember saying the same thing on this thread back in August some time when shorting was the topic djour. We typically have some corrective activity around November {give or take}, this is well with in the bounds of what I consider normal. Nothing has really been stretched far enough yet that I'd be calling this an abnormal year. Pull up a log scale chart and compare to last year...

FWIW we are due a strong season through to US summer.. it should be impressive. The dealers I talk to in the US on a daily basis are reporting premiums and supply are very normal right now, the COT data looks in reasonable shape... perhaps the small specs are ahead of themselves and I have no doubt they are being shaken hard right now, the political back drop is supportive with the CFTC's uttering all the right things and we have the prop trading desks closing down in order to meet new regs.... oh yeah, and all at right around the best time of year. I just don't see reason for tightening stops around here. Maybe I get taken out, risk control is in place and will work so ultimately I have no need to be right to profit.... that does not mean I can't see 'reasons to be cheerful'

sinner · 18 November 2010

Uncle Festivus said:
In the good ol days seasonals were probably relevant ie jewellery etc but it's a new ball game these days.

I am with Mr Z on this one. You can quantify seasonality in the PM markets, if you want.

Adam Hamilton approaches it differently than most, and while I might not like to trade off his seasonality charts (doesn't suit my style), he at least has a crack. As he states, seasonality is a secondary driver of price, so you should be using it as a confirmation bias for technical triggers.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/14331/gold-bull-seasonals-4
http://www.safehaven.com/print/15575/silver-bull-seasonals

Mr Z · 18 November 2010

sinner said:
seasonality is a secondary driver of price, so you should be using it as a confirmation bias for technical triggers.

Exactly...! There is a season for all things in gold.

Edwood · 18 November 2010

sinner said:
seasonality is a secondary driver of price, so you should be using it as a confirmation bias for technical triggers

the conclusion being, price action, as always, is most important and overrides all other factors.

Mr Z · 18 November 2010

Edwood said:
the conclusion being, price action, as always, is most important and overrides all other factors.

errrrrr why yes of course.

Edwood · 18 November 2010

long is coming along nicely now - didn't quite get the lows, but a few bucks off is OK I guess. Good to keep those profits banking whatever the weather - eh Mr Z.

Edwood · 18 November 2010

slightly off topic, but since we're mixing timeframes, this was thrown out recently and gives food for thought:

>> there are as many nano seconds in 1 second as there are seconds in 32 years

sinner · 18 November 2010

Edwood said:
the conclusion being, price action, as always, is most important and overrides all other factors.

So why do you plot your price over time?

Uncle Festivus · 18 November 2010

sinner said:
So why do you plot your price over time?

Perhaps then we need to look at it like this?

nukz · 19 November 2010

Gold May Advance to Record After Drop, Barclays Says: Technical Analysis

Gold may advance 9.6 percent to a record $1,485 an ounce by the end of the year, according to technical analysts at Barclays Capital.

“Strategically, we are bullish,” the bank said. “Medium- term trend followers are unlikely to have been panicked out of their positions given that important support between $1,314 and $1,331 is still holding,” according to a report dated yesterday by analysts including Philip Roberts.

Gold for immediate delivery gained 1.4 percent to $1,354.95 an ounce today after losing 5.2 percent in the previous four days. The metal climbed to a record $1,424.60 on Nov. 9. Hedge- fund managers and other large speculators increased their net- long positions in New York gold futures by 7 percent in the week ended Nov. 9, ending four weeks of declines, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

“A bearish divergence signal on weekly charts, though, warns of downside risk throughout the month, and we still fear an important clearout below $1,314 to $1,250 before gold recovers,” the bank said. “We would be bargain-hunting as the price approaches $1,250.”

Resistance levels are at $1,387, $1,377 and $1,364 an ounce and support is at $1,314, $1,297 and $1,250, it said.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

Source - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...barclays-capital-says-technical-analysis.html

Mr Z · 19 November 2010

Edwood said:
long is coming along nicely now - didn't quite get the lows, but a few bucks off is OK I guess. Good to keep those profits banking whatever the weather - eh Mr Z.

I'm surprised you didn't sell 1360 ish, being an obvious resistance point.

BTW... nicely?...in NZD you should be right about even now, I dunno, I have not got an NZD chart... that is just a guesstimate.... do you have an NZD POG chart so we can have a look see?

Edwood · 19 November 2010

Mr Z said:
BTW... nicely?...in NZD you should be right about even now, I dunno, I have not got an NZD chart... that is just a guesstimate.... do you have an NZD POG chart so we can have a look see?

no I haven't sorry Mr Z, my account is in GBP not NZD - I'll ask around the office & see if anyone here has an NZD chart for you

Mr Z · 19 November 2010

Don't worry, I was just assuming that NZD profits where meaningful to you given your profile.

Edwood · 20 November 2010

oh yep, no worries Mr Z

(this link covers most fwiw - someone else may have a better one?)

http://www.goldprice.org/spot-gold.html

cheers
Ed

Edwood · 23 November 2010

closed my longs just now for $30 - looking corrective all this chop & it couldn't hold the .38 retrace, so assuming we're heading lower again now

Logique · 24 November 2010

I'm thinking that if we see any near term easing in precious metals, it's more likely to be retracement than correction, so not overly concerned.

In wider markets, it's Euro scare mark 2 which seems to be dominating sentiment, so we just need to see how it plays out.

I'll post a % comparison of the UKX and the USD index. The correlation of the price of gold with the USD index is not nearly so consistent. Parallels with Euro scare mark 1.

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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