Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Mr Z]

Good luck!

FWIW... sit back, relax, take a long view. There is more money in it and a lot less work

 

[Southern X]

So, was last night a bear raid? Anticipation over what rabbit the G 20 may pull out of the hat?

My discipline is being tested as I've recently pulled out of REEs and I'd like to further my Au equity position.

I think the confluence of events: U$600 to U$850 Billion QE2; Euro debt woes, and Zoellick(sp?); have all provided positive price catalysts. I now wonder if THE SPIKE has begun these very days? On top of that I firmly, from a technical view, believe Au is not in a bubble. Of course if the spike begins to manifest itself it will be, but early days.

This is a train I would not step in front of until the US starts to raise interest rates, or the US public begins BUYING in earnest. These, and technicals, will be my sell signals.

For now and until mid 2011, when QE2 whimpers out, I'm long, buying dips.

SX

 

[Edwood]

There is more money in it

I disagree with you there Mr Z - but good luck to you too

 

[Mr Z]

So, was last night a bear raid?

Last night was a desperate stunt. Look at the timing and think about the liquidity available during the decline. It was designed to shake the weak hands loose.

For now and until mid 2011, when QE2 whimpers out, I'm long, buying dips.

Yes... next year will be a classic "sell in May" IM Humble Opinion.

 

[Southern X]

Agreed Z, desperate indeed.

I understand the Crimex is changing its margin requirements. Short squeeze imminent? Protect those bullion banks at all costs? ALL COSTS!?

Stumbled across this website and have been listening for the past hour. Maybe some here are interested. It has a TSX-V bias, but so do I:

http://www.moneytalks.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4441

Enjoy. Now let's make MONEY!

SX

 

[nukz]

http://www.moneytalks.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4441

Enjoy. Now let's make MONEY!

Great link Southern X, watching it now interesting

 

[Edwood]

why do you think the 'bear raid' was desperate guys? if I'd gone long out of a steep sell off would you call that desperate? nought wrong in my book with making a return when an opportunity presents.

Some interesting comments here re: current RSI levels.

http://ciovaccocapital.com/articles/dollargoldconcerning.html

 

[Southern X]

Desperation on a global scale:

My thanks to main man 'J' for the link. His explanation was also succinct in the covering mail, so let's leave it to him:

"... CME is raising, on one days’ notice, initial and maintenance requirements for Silver by 30% - hence the $1.60 drop in Silver in the last 40 mins"

http://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2010/11/why-did-silver-just-sell-off-this-is.html

One day's notice!

BTW I Highly recommend incakola.

SX

 

[Trembling Hand]

Desperation on a global scale:

My thanks to main man 'J' for the link. His explanation was also succinct in the covering mail, so let's leave it to him:

"... CME is raising, on one days’ notice, initial and maintenance requirements for Silver by 30% - hence the $1.60 drop in Silver in the last 40 mins"

Just LOL. Same old same old BS. No trader gives a Sh!! about minimum margin. Only retail cowboys. The margin is irrelevant to 90% of traders who trade commodities on a long term basis. The other 10% will be not trading next week because they have blown up.

 

[Mr Z]

One day's notice!

Anyone who trades this market regularly knew it was coming and knew how big it would be. You only have to look at what the silver price has done to understand that margin had to move in line with price. There are no boogymen here!

 

[Southern X]

Trembling, you must have an interesting accounting system. Especially since such a move would seriously impact your Ag book.

And, of course, the direct cause and effect of the one day notice and drop in Ag is just a co-inkydinky.

The margin move is to protect those shorting. Get it? Or, rather, please cite a time when the Crimex EVER lowered margin when Ag was going lower.

As for blowing up I'm sure your accounting of your book will always be a thing of beauty.

SX

 

[Trembling Hand]

Trembling, you must have an interesting accounting system. Especially since such a move would seriously impact your Ag book.

And, of course, the direct cause and effect of the one day notice and drop in Ag is just a co-inkydinky.

The margin move is to protect those shorting. Get it? Or, rather, please cite a time when the Crimex EVER lowered margin when Ag was going lower.

As for blowing up I'm sure your accounting of your book will always be a thing of beauty.

SX

Oh dear. I should of known not to stick my head into the Bugs confirmation bias "discussion" would be nice to come in here and talk to a bug who knew about markets most basic mechanics but ......

Please do yourself a favor and go and learn about correct position sizing of futures then come back and tell me what minimum exchange margin has to do with anyone with reasonable holdings.

 

[Mr Z]

why do you think the 'bear raid' was desperate guys?

It was done into the close of the Comex and into the globex markets. In other words it was done when they knew liquidity would be low. They wanted to buy as low a price as they could for a few a contracts as they could. The hope is to flush some volume in the next Comex session so that they can cover more short positions. It was done off the back of a rallying USD and not some margin move. This is not the normal short raid, normally they are on Comex hours or they setup in London for contrary moves on the Comex.

If you didn't notice that I'd be thinking twice about what you are doing on the short side of a gold. CFD's I assume.

 

[Mr Z]

Please do yourself a favor and go and learn about correct position sizing of futures then come back and tell me what minimum exchange margin has to do with anyone with reasonable holdings.

LOL...

Yes, very little and you could hardly be surprised by it after Silvers run!

Some small specs became road kill, nuthin abnormal in any contract!

 

[explod]

Oh dear. I should of known not to stick my head into the Bugs confirmation bias "discussion" would be nice to come in here and talk to a bug who knew about markets most basic mechanics but ......

Please do yourself a favor and go and learn about correct position sizing of futures then come back and tell me what minimum exchange margin has to do with anyone with reasonable holdings.

I was instructed years ago to keep away from trading futures so why bother to learn about them. And also to keep my trading at my own level of understanding and certainly not to use margin.

One should only spend what one has and risk only what one can afford. If that was the way it was played we would not have the terrible situation that the septic tanks have now. Maddock was just the tip of the iceberg and in retrospect he was the canary in the mine.

You seem to be on some sort of authoritarian high horse, why do you need to be this way, why not discuss as it comes on the levels required for all to understand. If you are saying that it takes books and extra study to communicate with you then you are joking surely.

It is openly admitted that there are more paper contracts than existing precious metal both in and what is likely to be left in the ground (and to pay for what was promised to be dug up is why it began in the first place) by a considerable margin. That it has gone well beyond this simple fact many of us see as wrong.

And I do understand the fluctuations of margin and as values change, more or less may have to be put in. It does seem obvious that those going long were being hit with an increased penalty when in fact the product is going up in value. A bit the same as Moodys downgrading Spain (bad as it is for them)when in fact the US's situation in fact is very much worse.

As far as the blowoff is concerned, it was more than overdue and we will no doubt see some more before the next consolidation and rise. Thats just the way it has behaved all the way up since 2002. Climbing the wall of worry, worry added to in particular by those trying to protect the paper money printing system, a system now neatly described as Quantative Easing.

 

[Mr Z]

Futures markets are very good at sniffing out weakness and exploiting it. Once they believe that the strength is on the long side then you will be glad they work the way they do. For PM's and commodities in general it is my belief that this season will be a watershed event. There will be no going back until we have a convincing effort at either fixing the USD or establishing a new reserve. I believe it will be the latter... eventually. In the mean time the "currency wars" should keep gold in good custom!

 

[Edwood]

It was done into the close of the Comex and into the globex markets. In other words it was done when they knew liquidity would be low.

Still don't see why its desperate, sounds like a good play to me!

Either way mine is not to reason why, just follow the set ups & keep consistently banking

 

[Trembling Hand]

Explod you freely comment, almost always incorrectly, about the futures market then when called on the most basic of errors you spout out this nonsense,

I was instructed years ago to keep away from trading futures so why bother to learn about them.

Either educate yourself about what you comment on or continue to talk like a fool. I don't care but be warned - I will stick my head in from time to time to point out your most remedial of errors just in case some poor sole confuses your comments with an authoritative view.

And I do understand the fluctuations of margin and as values change, more or less may have to be put in. It does seem obvious that those going long were being hit with an increased penalty when in fact the product is going up in value.

Oh dear!! And again this is just nutz wrong!!! please explain??

 

[Mr Z]

Still don't see why its desperate, sounds like a good play to me!

OK!

 

[Southern X]

OK trembling, what are your thoughts on option expiry, especially when the contracts move to the next month?

SX